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November 19, 2007 – Comments (4)

...Does anybody know whether or not this is worth more than $6? I was pretty sure it was worth more than $10, but it's been below $5 on two different days now, and I just read that E*Trade is losing literally all their accounts, so of course bankruptcy is inevitable, right? Because they already ditched their mortgage business, so they have nothing left if they lose their accounts, right?

Well, I put real $ in already. My cost is $5.03, or 5.04 (I forget). Now, does anybody know whether or not all is lost?

That guy from Citigroup: don't expect me to look surprised if the SEC finds out he had mountains of puts and he gets arrested. Seriously, is there any basis in reality for any of the crap he was spouting? From what I can tell, only people with more than $500,000 in stock or more than $100,000 in cash have anything to worry about anyway, and then only if there's a run, and there would never be a run if not for... irresponsible, self-serving comments by out-of-control analysts (working for, say, Citigroup).

By the way, my best pick right now is TOA underfperform, a housing company that seems to be going out of business. (I don't know, I just picked all housing stocks to underperform unless I noticed them being in Latin America or something like that.) Anyway, the S&P is staying with 90 percentage points of its decline, so I just can't keep the gavel. Not until the S&P starts going back up, anyway.

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 19, 2007 at 7:17 PM, clanza875 (35.15) wrote:

Its too easy to switch accounts to another internet brokerage. If I had an e-trade account i wouldnt hesitate to switch. Its just not worth the headache.

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#2) On November 19, 2007 at 7:27 PM, AnomaLee (28.53) wrote:

$10 -- I don't know, but I strongly feel that E-Trade(ETFC) should be valued a little more than $5. I'm most certain that you won't see a rise in stock price anytime soon. You have to understand that there is very little exuberant trading and leveraging going on in the marketplace right now. It's obvious due to the dead M&A activity.

I wonder how many portfolio managers are able take huge leveraged positions right now? I doubt many, and that is being reflected in the market and almost elimnates the probability of a quick rebound before year's end.

E-Trade going out of business? -- I doubt it. I do think that they are losing a lot of clients. Two of my brokerage accounts have sent out newletters re-assuring clients that their companies have no risk to subprime exposure, and are offering free account transfer. I think that is all related to E-Trade. 

That being E-Trade is a multi-billion dollar enterprise and is surely trading below book value as of today. I think the probability of the company going under within the next year are below 10% and my assumptions were backed up by an analyst at Merrill Lynch.  They have a great trading platform and if they added certain services I would personally switch to them. I'm sorry you bought above $5 because it's moving in the $4.60 range in after-hours trading. I'd rate ETFC a buy under $5 and anything under $4.30 (could happen) should signal load up the truck even though I feel this stock could trade under $3 -- but my outlook for E-Trade is for the mid to long term.

I think this is a very interesting stock with a helluva more upside in the next 2 years than C or any of these other stocks being mentioned in the CDO/subprime debacle of today.


Good luck... 

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#3) On November 19, 2007 at 8:15 PM, abitare (29.90) wrote:

As the current E-Trade score leader, I can honestly say, I have no idea the next direction move up or down. So I am not playing there, when I can guess more accurately the next move of other companies.

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#4) On November 20, 2007 at 6:17 PM, FleaBagger (27.32) wrote:

I bought more ETFC at about $4. I can't help myself. If I can get even more around $3.75, I probably will.

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