Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

portefeuille (99.56)

Europe

Recs

23

May 09, 2010 – Comments (46)

I think it is a good idea to "be overweight" European equities currently (I think more or less every other "assets group" (except for call options on European equities, hehe ...) will do worse over the next few weeks) ...

 

46 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 09, 2010 at 6:26 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

iShares MSCI Italy Index Fund (EWI).



enlarge

 

iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund (EWP).



enlarge

 

iShares MSCI Austria Investable Market Index Fund (EWO).



enlarge

 

EURUSD.



enlarge

Report this comment
#2) On May 09, 2010 at 6:32 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

Euro Gains for Second Day as Europe Promises Lending Mechanism

EU Preps $645 Billion Fund to Fight ‘Wolfpack,’ Debt Crisis

IMF approves 30 billion euro loan for Greece

 

Report this comment
#3) On May 09, 2010 at 6:41 PM, BlackshearCaptL (< 20) wrote:

Do you have a particular class?

What about industry?  Banks are still highly risky? 

Report this comment
#4) On May 09, 2010 at 6:44 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

EURUSD.



enlarge

 

S&P 500 index in EUR vs. DAX (green) and EURO STOXX 50 index (blue).



enlarge

 



enlarge

Report this comment
#5) On May 09, 2010 at 6:47 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

I think you should, within European equities, be overweight Spain, Italy, Austria, maybe Greece and Portugal. European banks might be a good idea as well, especially Santander (STD).

Report this comment
#6) On May 09, 2010 at 7:56 PM, BlackshearCaptL (< 20) wrote:

So you feel it will be resolved and these banks will "rebound"?

Interesting, lets take a look at the articles you linked. 

Report this comment
#7) On May 09, 2010 at 8:01 PM, BlackshearCaptL (< 20) wrote:

Do you have any particular ones that you would recommend someone look into?

Report this comment
#8) On May 09, 2010 at 8:51 PM, ChrisGraley (30.24) wrote:

Can you explain why Porty? The charts that you posted seem to suggest the opposite opinion.

Report this comment
#9) On May 09, 2010 at 8:56 PM, Tastylunch (29.47) wrote:

You're assuming max pessimism has hit eh?

could be pretty lucrative if you are right.

Report this comment
#10) On May 09, 2010 at 9:03 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

The EURUSD exchange rate might "go down a bit more" but I do not expect too much "further decline" and I think most European indices bottomed on Friday or will do so on Monday. Just a "feeling", maybe.

I do not believe in the kind of technical analysis that finds charts like that of the EURO STOXX 50 index "ugly". I am rather a friend of catching falling knifes. I guess it is the little "value investor" inside me.

 

Report this comment
#11) On May 09, 2010 at 9:16 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#9 Not sure the "pessimism" has peaked ...

I would not suggest being "overweight the DAX" (in the European portfolio section). Many German companies love the weak euro of course, but as the DAX never really "dropped" I think the indices considered by many to be weaker will "do better" than the DAX.

 

Report this comment
#12) On May 09, 2010 at 10:42 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

okay, why not ...

Here are some companies of the telecom and finance sectors you could look at.

AXA (CS:FP),
Banco Santander (SAN:SM, STD),
Crédit Agricole (ACA:FP),
Deutsche Bank (DBK:GR, DB),
Erste Group Bank (EBS:AV),
ING Groep (INGA:SA, ING),
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP:IM),
OMV (OMV:AV)
Telefónica (TEF:SM, TEF),
Telekom Austria (TKM:AV),
UniCredit (UCG:IM).

Report this comment
#13) On May 09, 2010 at 10:49 PM, Momentum21 (97.38) wrote:

How about FTE? This seems like one your style would favor...

I like the looks of STD as well... 

Report this comment
#14) On May 09, 2010 at 11:18 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

Yes, you can add France Télécom (FTE:FP, FTE) to that list.

Report this comment
#15) On May 09, 2010 at 11:29 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

France Télécom in Paris trading.



enlarge

Report this comment
#16) On May 10, 2010 at 12:09 AM, Momentum21 (97.38) wrote:

TEF does look very interesting at these levels with that dividend kicker...

Report this comment
#17) On May 10, 2010 at 12:30 AM, ChrisGraley (30.24) wrote:

I'm expecting a European rebound on Monday, but I think there are a few more skeletons that need to come out of the closet before I start loading up the shopping cart. I might put some money down on MTL on Monday though.

Report this comment
#18) On May 10, 2010 at 12:39 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

I'm expecting a European rebound on Monday

so do the futures ...

Report this comment
#19) On May 10, 2010 at 12:40 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

futures

futures traders

Report this comment
#20) On May 10, 2010 at 12:47 AM, Momentum21 (97.38) wrote:

Just for fun...my guess is that we get a euphoric open that is partly fueled by fierce short covering...we bump back up to 1150 on the S&P by 10:15AM ET...and what we do from there will dictate the rest of the summer months. 

It wouldn't surprise me to see a bounce of sorts with weak follow through but if I had to wager I think we close above and don't look back...the uncertainty in the short-term has been reduced significantly and the market will really like that...

Another reason: because Cramer said "don't buy until we hit Dow 9000" last week... : )

 

 

Report this comment
#21) On May 10, 2010 at 1:14 AM, topsecret09 (40.41) wrote:

 Port.... I agree with you on a lot of things,and yes the "short term futures are pointing sharply higher,but I think that this new "crisis" Is getting worse. They are putting a band-aid on a severed artery,and just like the gusher In the ocean that BP Is dealing with,this monetary gusher will also be very hard to cap. Uncertainty has been,and will always be the death knell of equities,and I am a SELLER on any strength....    TS

Report this comment
#22) On May 10, 2010 at 1:50 AM, topsecret09 (40.41) wrote:

Oh,by the way..... I bought Seabridge at 23 and sold It at 31.... Thanks for the heads up on that one. Still like the stock,just raising some cash....  TS

Report this comment
#23) On May 10, 2010 at 2:38 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

well done.

these are the SA trades for my "fund" (see here).

bought 2000 at 21.00,
bought 1000 at 23.01,
sold 1700 at 23.93,
sold 350 at 25.26,
sold 350 at 27.33,
sold 250 at 28.25,
sold 140 at 28.90,
sold 100 at 30.60.

110 are left in the "fund". SA closed on 05/07/10 at 30.75.

Report this comment
#24) On May 10, 2010 at 10:18 AM, JakilaTheHun (99.94) wrote:

European equities are cheap, but ...

I don't think this is the end of the European debt crises.  Those who are viewing this as solely a series of "debt crises" are also missing the bigger issue, which is the structure of the Eurozone itself.

The Eurozone is a work-in-progress at best.  It reminds me of the U.S. under the Articles of Confederation --- the Articles were essentially a failure until needed Constitutional reforms were enacted.  The Eurozone needs a reform package to make it ultimately viable.  The current solution is merely a bandaid.

Which is why I don't think this is the end.  I might be wrong --- in fact, I'm not totally sure what the near-term outcome of the recent moves in the Eurozone will have --- but I don't think this is the end and I think Portugal and/or Spain will soon lead into the second leg of a general Eurozone crisis.

But the Euro will survive. Simply put --- it's too economically beneficial for Germany, France, and the other Eurozone nations to abandon the project.  So instead, they will mush on through and be forced to find ways to fix the system.  

If I were buying Euro equities, I'd buy telecoms (FTE, OTE), French companies (VE), oil companies (E), and some others.  But I'll probably hold out and see if things get worse --- even if that means I might miss out on a big rally.  (And I might.)

Report this comment
#25) On May 10, 2010 at 10:27 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

update of the usual chart of the S&P 500 index (see here).



enlarge

 

those grey lines are doing a nice job lately, hehe ...

Report this comment
#26) On May 10, 2010 at 4:49 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

relative changes "Friday close" -> "Monday close in European trading" (according to bloomberg.com).

AXA (CS:FP) +21.87%,
Banco Santander (SAN:SM, STD) +23.217%,
Crédit Agricole (ACA:FP) +18.653%,
Deutsche Bank (DBK:GR, DB) +9.237%,
Erste Group Bank (EBS:AV) +15.179%,
ING Groep (INGA:NA, ING) +24.587%,
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP:IM) +19.676%,
OMV (OMV:AV) +6.820%,
Telefónica (TEF:SM, TEF) +11.979%,
Telekom Austria (TKA:AV) +6.434%,
UniCredit (UCG:IM) +20.933%.

Report this comment
#27) On May 10, 2010 at 6:29 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

Here are some companies of the telecom and finance sectors you could look at.

OMV is of course in neither of these sectors.

 

Report this comment
#28) On May 10, 2010 at 6:42 PM, BlackshearCaptL (< 20) wrote:

STD, DB and TEF still recommendable* after the runup?  Or do you forsee a better entry?

Report this comment
#29) On May 10, 2010 at 6:55 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

yes, still recommended by me. not sure about the "timing". buying and selling in tranches resolves that issue somewhat ...

Report this comment
#30) On May 10, 2010 at 9:43 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

EURUSD.



enlarge
 

Report this comment
#31) On May 11, 2010 at 5:17 AM, SUPERMANSTOCKS (55.70) wrote:

This is interesting. Thank you. I do have only one question. If Canada is solvent (Banks). Then how will it affect them? I like the Canadian Banks. CIBC for instance.

Report this comment
#32) On May 13, 2010 at 7:40 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

EURUSD.



enlarge

Report this comment
#33) On May 18, 2010 at 3:37 AM, ttboydxb (29.31) wrote:

I think STD at 7.00 is a buy, add to your position if it dips further, and hold for possibly a long while.  It may take a while to get the EU straightened out, but STD has a lots of overseas (South American) exposure to keep it afloat.

Report this comment
#34) On May 21, 2010 at 6:19 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#12,26 update.

(05/07/10 close -> 05/21/10 close)

AXA (CS:FP) 11.82 EUR -> 13.02 EUR +10.15%,
Banco Santander (SAN:SM, STD) 7.71 EUR -> 8.60 EUR +11.54%,
Crédit Agricole (ACA:FP) 9.06 EUR ->  9.32 EUR +2.87%,
Deutsche Bank (DBK:GR, DB) 45.80 EUR ->  47.99 EUR +4.78%,
Erste Group Bank (EBS:AV) 28.00 EUR ->  30.78 EUR +9.93%,
ING Groep (INGA:NA, ING) 5.51 EUR ->  6.41 EUR +16.33%,
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP:IM) 2.01 EUR ->  2.20 EUR +9.45%,
OMV (OMV:AV) 1.63 EUR ->  1.76 EUR +7.98%,
Telefónica (TEF:SM, TEF) 15.36 EUR ->  15.58 EUR +1.43%,
Telekom Austria (TKA:AV) 9.17 EUR ->  10.06 EUR +9.71%,
UniCredit (UCG:IM) 1.63 EUR ->  1.76 EUR +7.98%.

average realtive difference +8.38%.

All those stocks (I think) opened higher on May 10 than they closed on May 7, but when I wrote comment 12 above European markets were called up by maybe 1% ("if at all") ...

Report this comment
#35) On May 21, 2010 at 6:39 PM, Momentum21 (97.38) wrote:

Not as fun as STD but Vanguard has a nice little benchmark ETF:

VGK: http://www.google.com/finance?q=vgk

 

Report this comment
#36) On May 21, 2010 at 6:43 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

I was a little surprised that those stocks are still all in the green compared to the close of European trading on May 7. Must be the bombardment with all that "Europe / EU / Eurozone / PIIGS / whatever is in trouble" garbage, hehe ...

Report this comment
#37) On June 06, 2010 at 11:52 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#34 update.

(05/07/10 close -> 05/21/10 close)

AXA (CS:FP) 11.82 EUR -> 12.54 EUR +6.09%,
Banco Santander (SAN:SM, STD) 7.71 EUR -> 7.55 EUR -2.08%,
Crédit Agricole (ACA:FP) 9.06 EUR ->  8.35 EUR -7.84%,
Deutsche Bank (DBK:GR, DB) 45.80 EUR ->  47.03 EUR +2.69%,
Erste Group Bank (EBS:AV) 28.00 EUR ->  26.00 EUR -7.14%,
ING Groep (INGA:NA, ING) 5.51 EUR ->  6.26 EUR +13.61%,
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP:IM) 2.01 EUR ->  1.99 EUR -1.00%,
OMV (OMV:AV) 24.36 EUR ->  25.31 EUR +3.9%,
Telefónica (TEF:SM, TEF) 15.36 EUR ->  15.45 EUR +0.59%,
Telekom Austria (TKA:AV) 9.17 EUR ->  9.32 EUR +1.64%,
UniCredit (UCG:IM) 1.63 EUR ->  1.56 EUR -4.29%.

average realtive difference +0.56%.

Report this comment
#38) On June 06, 2010 at 11:53 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#37 (05/07/10 close -> 05/21/10 close)

(05/07/10 close -> 06/04/10 close)

Report this comment
#39) On June 06, 2010 at 12:22 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

realtive

relative

Report this comment
#40) On July 08, 2010 at 4:47 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

#12,26,34,37 update.

(05/07/10 close -> 07/08/10 close)

AXA (CS:FP) 11.82 EUR -> 13.34 EUR +12.86%,
Banco Santander (SAN:SM, STD) 7.71 EUR -> 9.95 EUR +29.05%,
Crédit Agricole (ACA:FP) 9.06 EUR ->  9.37 EUR +3.42%,
Deutsche Bank (DBK:GR, DB) 45.80 EUR ->  49.01 EUR +7.02%,
Erste Group Bank (EBS:AV) 28.00 EUR ->  28.29 EUR +1.04%,
ING Groep (INGA:NA, ING) 5.51 EUR ->  6.82 EUR +23.77%,
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP:IM) 2.01 EUR ->  2.38 EUR +18.41%,
OMV (OMV:AV) 24.36 EUR ->  25.055 EUR +2.85%,
Telefónica (TEF:SM, TEF) 15.36 EUR ->  16.17 EUR +5.27%,
Telekom Austria (TKA:AV) 9.17 EUR ->  9.08 EUR -0.98%,
UniCredit (UCG:IM) 1.63 EUR ->  1.98 EUR +21.47%.

average relative difference +11.29%.

EURUSD ≈ 1.27 currently.

Report this comment
#41) On July 29, 2010 at 5:40 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

(05/07/10 close -> 07/29/10 close)

AXA (CS:FP) 11.82 EUR -> 14.24 EUR +20.47%,
Banco Santander (SAN:SM, STD) 7.71 EUR -> 10.26 EUR +33.07%,
Crédit Agricole (ACA:FP) 9.06 EUR ->  10.57 EUR +16.67%,
Deutsche Bank (DBK:GR, DB) 45.80 EUR ->  53.35 EUR +16.48%,
Erste Group Bank (EBS:AV) 28.00 EUR -> 32.45  EUR +15.89%,
ING Groep (INGA:NA, ING) 5.51 EUR ->  7.65 EUR +38.84%,
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP:IM) 2.01 EUR ->  2.55 EUR +26.87%,
OMV (OMV:AV) 24.36 EUR ->  25.66 EUR +5.34%,
Telefónica (TEF:SM, TEF) 15.36 EUR ->  17.55 EUR +14.26%,
Telekom Austria (TKA:AV) 9.17 EUR ->  9.62 EUR +4.91%,
UniCredit (UCG:IM) 1.63 EUR ->  2.16 EUR +32.52%.

average relative difference +20.48%.

EURUSD ≈ 1.3079 currently.

Report this comment
#42) On August 09, 2010 at 3:59 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

Euro Returns 5% for Bulls Who Acted on ECB’s Defiance

Report this comment
#43) On April 15, 2011 at 12:41 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

(May 7, 2010 close -> April 14, 2011 close)

AXA (CS:FP) 11.82 EUR -> 15.42 EUR +30.46%,
Banco Santander (SAN:SM, STD) 7.71 EUR -> 8.305 EUR +7.72%,
Crédit Agricole (ACA:FP) 9.06 EUR ->  11.47 EUR +26.60%,
Deutsche Bank (DBK:GR, DB) 45.80 EUR ->  41.595 EUR -9.18%,
Erste Group Bank (EBS:AV) 28.00 EUR -> 35.63  EUR +27.25%,
ING Groep (INGA:NA, ING) 5.51 EUR ->  8.814 EUR +59.96%,
Intesa Sanpaolo (ISP:IM) 2.01 EUR ->  2.198 EUR +9.35%,
OMV (OMV:AV) 24.36 EUR ->  31.225 EUR +28.18%,
Telefónica (TEF:SM, TEF) 15.36 EUR ->  17.81 EUR +15.95%,
Telekom Austria (TKA:AV) 9.17 EUR ->  10.18 EUR +11.01%,
UniCredit (UCG:IM) 1.63 EUR ->  1.712 EUR +5.03%.

average relative difference +19.30%.

EURUSD ≈ 1.447 currently.

Report this comment
#44) On April 15, 2011 at 1:02 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

EURUSD was at around $1.275 at the "close of European equity trading on May 7, 2010" (see comment #30 above).

performance (May 7, 2010 close -> April 14, 2011 close) calculated in USD and exclusing dividends.

little Europe portfolio: ((1.193*1.447/1.275) - 1) * 100% ≈ 35.4%.
SPY ($111.26 -> $131.56): ≈ 18.2%.

and all 11 positions are currently (calculated in USD) in the green ...

Report this comment
#45) On April 15, 2011 at 1:10 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

EURO STOXX 50 Price Index (May 7, 2010 close -> April 14, 2011 close) (2500.18 -> 2917.72): ≈ 16.7%, so that little "mostly financials" portfolio beat the index slightly. oh well ...

Report this comment
#46) On September 25, 2011 at 12:55 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

exclusing

excluding

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement