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starbucks4ever (87.71)

EWT was predicting it all along. Not.



July 02, 2009 – Comments (6)

You would think that Elliott theory is a good trading tool. Had you listened to Goodvibe, you would have thouroughly enjoyed today's plunge, right?

Here is the problem, however: Goodvide is now long. Or so it appears from his statements.  

Comment 12  in "GoodVibe Community Alert - This Is The Time!"

"Skinnee - My current bet is short that I started at both 955 and 925. Those will be covered with nice gains if 927.09 will be taken out tomorrow! It's simple as this. The rule that wave 1 can't retrace more than 100% of 2 (if you are aware of EW). If we top 927 high, then all we know that wave 3 DOWN is not gonna happen and the bullish scenario have better chances. This is the only thing we can be certain of. For the upside above 956 from above 927, we have to find out like everyone else. We will have to wait for more actions on the chart."

01:11 in CIL 12: 

"GoodVibe:  I think you should post that chart in the comment section, approved by me. :) I have the same count and I was going to post it. Just make sure to put the alternative. I am putting three lights as stops. Green 907, yellow 910 and red 927. I will cover on one of those depend on what comes tomorrow. This channel is bothering me and it's telling me that if it breaks, It's better to book my gains in this trade. I'll give it a little bit room though." 

So according to GV, you should have covered all your shorts at 927. And also, if you listened to GV, most of your shorts would be the ones made in the upper 700s and low 800s, when he shorted the market because "The Book" was predicting some corrective wave 2 or 4 that never happened. Granted, his third short call at 956 was spot-on, so he gets full credit for that - and 29 points on the S&P. His other two attempts to go short are now deeply in the red - one about 60 points, and the other about 100 points on the S&P. Today's drop would have been welcome news for all those holding these short positions, but unfortunately, they got stopped out at the "red light" at 927.09. 


6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 02, 2009 at 11:54 PM, alexpaz (28.39) wrote:

Congratulations, on almost breaking above 100 points! The truth is Goodvibe, Binve, Columbia etc. all try to make sense of what is a wildy manipulated and unpredictable market. Their work is helpful to most that understand basic aspects of technical analysis, however you pissing on other Caps members does no one any good. You suck at Caps and probably can't trade yourself out of a wet paper bag....

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#2) On July 03, 2009 at 12:50 AM, AllStarPortfolio (28.13) wrote:


Well, if it helps, Z, i'm pretty sure you're better than i am.


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#3) On July 03, 2009 at 1:10 AM, starbucks4ever (87.71) wrote:

"Well, if it helps, Z, i'm pretty sure you're better than i am."

I wish it were true, but it's not :) Far from that :) I'm pretty sure your portfolio will outperform mine, in the medium term at least. You've got some good picks there. 

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#4) On July 03, 2009 at 3:04 AM, FleaBagger (27.55) wrote:

I don't want to dump on anyone, but I think Solaris may have been referring to the account in which he picks his own stocks.

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#5) On July 03, 2009 at 9:10 PM, AllStarPortfolio (28.13) wrote:

Whoops, of course FleaBagger is right.

Just in case you didn't know Z, AllStarPortfolio is a group project of 99+ rated allstars. See the accounts blogs. MY account (SolarisKing) is just like yours, a 'newbie' bouncin' under -0-.

(i have to admit, for just a moment there i thought i was receiving a compliment)

Let me give you another compliment, Z. It took a bit of tracking to find the facts about GV that you posted above. It is possibly true that if you had followed his advice to the letter you could be in trouble, but the kind of mind that can follow closely to the facts will eventually be a winner in the market.

The best post i can think of from GV was his second or third biggest post. Remember the one about separating your cash into 4 or 5 piles, and buying in (with elliot wave) every 3-6 months? If you take that into account, he went long at 666 and will buy more at the 800 and or 750, and if needed at 570. If that is his big plan, then losing a few shorts (that he can get back into monday if he wants to) is no big deal.


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#6) On July 03, 2009 at 11:17 PM, starbucks4ever (87.71) wrote:

Thanks for filling me in. I somehow missed this AllStar thing. Stock picking tips from the best and the brightest, I presume? The CAPs wieghting system already does that, so I'm not sure if it would be such a huge improvement. Would love to take a look though.

In case you missed the point: this is not against GV's stockpicking skills (I am fully aware that he's made at least 3 excellent calls, and anyway, his score is higher than mine), this against the idea that extrapolation from the past can predict how people will trade stocks tomorrow or a week or a month from now. I am not following every detail of the discussion at CIL of course (have you seen the amount of talk there?) but I was intrigued enough to read a few blogs and to even ask GV a few questions about the EWT. I saw from the replies that their set of beliefs was a complete mess. In a nutshell, the cult followers weren't sure which terminology they were using, very few of them have actually read "THE BOOK" and even fewer have bothered to reconcile their interpretation of rules with formal logic. They also ignored the inconvenient questions. I asked GV how a double top on the S&P (first in 2000 and then in 2007)  fit into the 1,2,3,4,5,A,B,C pattern, and got no reply. Several weeks later, when another player offered his insight that RELATIVE movements of stocks require a LOGARITHMIC scale (and what were they thinking before that, may I ask?), I realized that the mess was even greater than I originally thought. It was as though a whole research institute were working for months on something like semiconductor theory, or whatever, and then one physicist comes out and says: "Look fellas, maybe we are not getting the right results because current is in Amperes not in Teslas". As to "finding the facts" - no, I didn't spend a whole day with a magnifying glass looking for them. It's just that for better or worse, my brain is working in this way: when I read a page of text, I just remember the essence of the statement and the approximate context, and forget the nonessential details. So upon reading the blog in question (and giving it a rec), I came away with this basic summary: sometime in the end of June Goodvibe posted some praise of EWT that I don't remember plus one specific that you should cover any shorts should S&P go above 927. Two days later S&P reached 930, and I said to myself: OK, so those EWT guys must now be covering their shorts". No big deal. Bad trades happen, right? But then a few more days passed by and there was nothing but praise for EWT performance and a deafening silence about the trade gone sour. So I wondered what the hell's the matter, located the original blog, and made a short post, more for my own reference than for the sake of discussion - because a month from now I would surely have no idea where to look for that reference. So it was very simple, really.

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