Examination of the Large Technical Landscape / Possible Paths
Okay, we are at point in the rally where Technical and Fundamental Analysts need to do some soul searching. Obviously nobody can see the future. Even those that called this rally up to date correctly could not see the future. All you have is risk/reward and probable outcomes. And those that have been bullish have been handsomely rewarded.
But is this a new secular bull market? Is it a bear market rally?
So let's discuss the options. Obviously these are my opinion. No way around that. In fact any analysis is an opinion: Regarding Economic Debates and Opinions: The Fallacy of "Purely Objective" Analysis. Bulls can tell the bears that they have not been objective during this rally, or vice versa, but that is quite plainly untrue. We all have to call things like we see them. And some people will see things correctly and some won't. Just part of the game. Pure "objectivity" has nothing to do with it.
The options are:
1) We are in the midst of a secular bull market
2) We are at the top of a counter-trend bear market rally and will begin crashing soon
3) We are still in the middle of a rally - cyclical bull market in an overall larger bear market
** Option 1 - We are in the midst of a secular bull market
I have to be honest, I find no evidence of this. Besides a lot of bullish rhetoric, the positive economic developments either result from government stimulus or from an inventory rebuild cycle. Neither one is sustainable or fundamentally healthy, or even begets fundamentally healthy behavior. All the great bull markets throughout history have started from the savings of the the citizens of a country making large capital investments. Practically the exact opposite is happening today.