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portefeuille (99.60)

EXAS

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October 28, 2010 – Comments (25)

EXAS shares are currently my 6th largest position (behind EMC, EMC call options / warrents, ATPG, IDRA and QGEN, see this post). It is also one of the larger positions in my "fund" (see this post).

They will announce results of a "validation study" in a few minutes.

Advisory: Exact Sciences’ Abstract Published in AACR Abstract Book is Pilot Study, Validation Study Data Will Be Announced at 1:00 PM EDT, Oct. 28

25 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 28, 2010 at 12:51 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

http://investor.exactsciences.com/releases.cfm

http://investor.exactsciences.com/events.cfm

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#2) On October 28, 2010 at 1:09 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Exact Sciences Reports Positive Results for Colorectal Cancer Screening Test

Exact Sciences Detects Early Colon Cancer

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#3) On October 28, 2010 at 4:29 PM, MyunderratedLife (90.02) wrote:

What happened to EXAS after hours?

I can't find any pertinent information to this drop.

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#4) On October 28, 2010 at 9:29 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

What happened to EXAS after hours?

Investors appear to have come down with a bout of common sense....

Portefueille is good at what he does, but I don't get why in the heck anyone buys crap like this on the "hope" it produces decent enough data to stay afloat.

UltraLong

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#5) On October 28, 2010 at 9:32 PM, MyunderratedLife (90.02) wrote:

@ #4

I'm not "in" EXAS by any stretch, I like to keep up-to-date his "fund trades."  It's fun to try and understand some of the moves. 

And the performance lately is something else all together. 

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#6) On October 29, 2010 at 1:55 AM, zzlangerhans (99.83) wrote:

The decision to buy a small cap biotech/pharma should never be based on the "hope" for a positive outcome of a binary catalyst. The decision should be based on a probabilistic calculation that at some point in the future the share price will be higher than the buy price, at which time the stock can be sold for a profit. Some will make these calculations correctly more than half the time, and some will not. Those with accuracy will accrue wealth.

One might claim that it is impossible to consistently make money in these stocks, which is why I have begun to record all my bio trades in CAPS. Win or lose, everyone will know my outcomes. To the best of my knowledge no one else is doing this in CAPS, including the fundamentalists.

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#7) On October 29, 2010 at 2:11 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

The reason is there are no fundamentalists who invest in biotechs :-p

UltraLong

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#8) On October 29, 2010 at 4:39 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

To the best of my knowledge no one else is doing this in CAPS, including the fundamentalists.

I have done that to some degree. see these posts.

May 2, 2010, positions
June 1, 2010, positions2
June 24, 2010, fun
July 15, 2010, positions
September 1, 2010, positions

I don't want to post the exact number of shares I trade or the exact price since that would render my identity (especially considering that trading is sometimes extremely illiquid, especially on German exchanges or in extended trading on U.S. exchanges) but I will make a list of the biopharmaceutical trades I did and mentioned in my posts with "about accurate" numbers, hehe ...

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#9) On October 29, 2010 at 4:44 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I will also update the spreadsheet with the trades I "did" as manager of my "fund" (see here) and add a column to make the trades of shares of "biopharmaceutical" companies easiy selectable.

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#10) On October 29, 2010 at 5:21 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

The EXAS fund position closed extended trading "in the green" yesterday by the way. There are currently 12900 EXAS shares in the fund with break-even of around $6.10. EXAS shares closed extended trading at $6.70. Thus the EXAS position of the fund was in the green excluding "commission" by around 12900 * $0.60 = $7740.00 (current value of the fund positions is around $8 million).

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#11) On October 29, 2010 at 5:31 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I would not worry too much about EXAS by the way. It is usually a good sign to be mentioned in the headline of one of my posts. I think that is another statistic waiting to be furnished, hehe ...

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#12) On October 29, 2010 at 5:37 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

#8 I forgot (at least) one.

May 2, 2010, positions
June 1, 2010, positions2
June 17, 2010, positions3
June 24, 2010, fun
July 15, 2010, positions
September 1, 2010, positions

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#13) On October 29, 2010 at 8:55 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

There are currently 12900 EXAS shares in the fund with break-even of around $6.10.

I just "sold" 2000 shares (see comment #39 here). There are now 10900 EXAS shares in the fund with break-even of around $5.90.

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#14) On October 29, 2010 at 9:00 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

There's no stopping me, hehe ...

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#15) On October 29, 2010 at 9:14 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

and the video for EXAS shares making new all-time highs in 2011 (or so) ...

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#16) On October 29, 2010 at 9:57 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Nobody does it better
Makes me feel sad for the rest
Nobody does it half as good as you
Baby you're the best


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#17) On October 29, 2010 at 10:25 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

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#18) On October 29, 2010 at 11:12 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

sorry for the good mood over here, it is Friday afternoon ...

 

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#19) On October 29, 2010 at 2:06 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

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#20) On October 29, 2010 at 2:15 PM, topsecret10 (< 20) wrote:

Buy the rumor sell the news ?  Time to jump In ?

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#21) On October 29, 2010 at 8:37 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

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#22) On October 29, 2010 at 11:17 PM, Momentum21 (75.73) wrote:

The music makes this a wonderful post...

#15 inspired me to buy a few shares at 6.89. At first I thought I might sell it at the close but I wound up holding on...partly because I was unable to sell at 7.09 and partly since I did my "research" after the execution...

You are a bad influence. : )

I also like the zzlangerhans quote in #6 

 

 

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#23) On October 29, 2010 at 11:29 PM, Momentum21 (75.73) wrote:

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#24) On November 02, 2010 at 1:16 PM, Nickalisk (49.48) wrote:

Do you have any idea if the new "gene patent" ruling will affect EXAS?

It seems like a broad ruling that would encompass their test or intellectual property rights, I would think.

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#25) On November 02, 2010 at 1:54 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I don't know whether there will be "a new patent ruling" or how the ones that might be considered affect EXAS.

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