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Valyooo (99.63)

Excuse me while I make money

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October 03, 2010 – Comments (19)

So as most of you know, I am a college student with little experience and knowledge of investing. I read a lot and try to learn as much as possible. I hope to be an expert by age 24

I know a decent amount about fundamental analysis and a little about technical analysis

But what I'm good at (not too experienced but still pretty good) is making money with stocks/etfs. I use seasonal trades and patterns to my advantage, and avoid losing money by using good money management

What I do is try to time the market. I use my head and read a lot and just see how the sentiment is. I also research a lot of patterns and griffin helps me learn about how money managers trade, and I beat them to the punch

I would say that nowadays, figuring out the demand for paper value is a lot more important than the value itself. "You can't beat the market though". Nonsense

A lot of time I hear people who have held positions for 5+ years and they keep sliding down and down that there's so much "value" and one day that value will work itself out. That may be true, but...

Why not just make money in the mean time?

Sure, bidu is overpriced. I don't disagree. But I made money riding the trend. And you can keep adding to your losing position while I make money

Anybody who says that swing trading or anything else that let's me make money while I wait for good value stocks to bottom out is a bad strategy...what's wrong with making money?

I've had this account for 10 weeks and have a 97.67 score, using the simplest techniques ever (I'm not bragging at all, I'm not close to the levels of the experts on here). But people call redthumbing leveraged etfs "gaming the system". How? I make money in real life shorting those

And to the people who hate on TA...why? If it works why not use it?

If I find a simple pattern and I can make money off of it, how's that any less legitimate than value investing?

I'm not trying to be a daytrader or anything like that, and when I have more money I will want a lot of it in bonds and jnj and pg

But for now, excuse me while I make money buying options on gold and using simple pattenrns like shorting account irregularities, buying calls on the spy on the last day of the month, so on and so forth

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 03, 2010 at 11:26 PM, BillyTG (29.75) wrote:

Lots of ways to make money. Buy low, sell high. Not that big a deal!

MF preaches certain techniques and shows disdain for others, but even they have become more sophisticated over the years.

Best of luck, and be sure to click the "green checkmark" and leave commentary on your real-life choices so we know which of your CAPS trades really matters to you.

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#2) On October 03, 2010 at 11:40 PM, awallejr (82.72) wrote:

Don't confuse gambling with accumulating wealth.  You have a very big factor in your favor, namely time. Yeah you can "catch a ride" with lucky timing, but long run you, meaning years, don't count on it. Gambling at best makes you money short term only.  But to accumulate wealth, that takes work, guts and time.

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#3) On October 03, 2010 at 11:43 PM, BillyTG (29.75) wrote:

PS Don't get too cocky.

Get a few years and a few recessions and bubbles under your investing belt and you might find that what's working for you now is crap in different markets. Plus, it looks like your 10-weeks CAPS portfolio, where I see a lot of gold and silver stocks, happens to be perfect timing for a bigtime surge in those metals and the stock market in general. Just sayin'

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#4) On October 04, 2010 at 12:34 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.76) wrote:

Dude, are you really shorting T in RL. You know that you will have to pay the div.

Eveyone has their own trading style, so do whatever works for you. It's your money.

Best of luck.

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#5) On October 04, 2010 at 1:42 AM, RonChapmanJr (97.20) wrote:

Becoming an expert in something supposedly requires 10 + years of diligent practice in that area.

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#6) On October 04, 2010 at 2:04 AM, Valyooo (99.63) wrote:

Oh no, I am not shorting T in real life.  T is one of the few things I am using to game the system.  T, PGF I am using because I know they will underperform, not because they will necessarily go down.  Other than that my statement stands.

But even if I were shorting it in real life, the dividend I have to pay out would be equal to the drop in share price so it would equal out anyway, and actually give me a tax advantage (Short term capital loss for paying out the dividend)

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#7) On October 04, 2010 at 3:56 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.76) wrote:

Ok, but what if Mr. Market decides it wants to go higher.

T would surely follow and you'd be left holding the bag.

I think what people are trying to tell you is that just cause you had a good year, don't think it's always gonna be biscuits and gravy.

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#8) On October 04, 2010 at 11:31 AM, Griffin416 (99.98) wrote:

Yes, I'm the Griffin he's talking about. Buy and forget as many people are taught, does not work. Proper portfolio allocation, riding the trends and getting out when they turn can help you beat the market. 70% of the time figuring out the direction of the market is easy, just find a higher beta play on it.

Near the bottom of this article it shows the performance of conservative funds versus aggressive funds...at the end of the day, it doesn't matter, all you need to know is the direction of the market. http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/10/risk-tolerance-still-down.html

So, the market has been sideways far a year, buy into the panic and sell into the glory. There is a chance we break out of the range, but there is more money to be made trading the trend then there is losing when the trend shifts.

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#9) On October 04, 2010 at 12:46 PM, Mstinterestinman (26.98) wrote:

I believe in buying good companies when the price is fair and paying attention to the fundamentals. Sometimes the most fair prices look exspensive buy a good or great company but if a better opportunity comes never marry it and never be afraid to sell. That the basis for my investment strategy and well It worked for Buffett so I figure it might just work for me..lol

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#10) On October 04, 2010 at 3:46 PM, BillyTG (29.75) wrote:

@griffin, you should write some more excellent blogs

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#11) On October 04, 2010 at 4:23 PM, JaysRage (90.49) wrote:

Congratulations on your recent success.   If you have the time and energy to devote to your science, you will probably continue to be successful.    The reason most people (even intelligent people with a strong understanding of the stock market) do not do what you do is that they do not have the time or energy to devote to it to be successful.   

Fundamentals are not vulnerable to anything, which is why most investors focus on it.  Profits are profits.  Cash is cash.   Revenue is revenue.  TA is vulnerable to two things.    

1.  Fundamentals.   Nothing will crush a good short like a blowout earnings.   Pattern will be broken.  

2.  News.   Legitimate news will move a stock up or down considerably.  

If you know the stocks that you are working with.....you know the patterns of earnings/divvies/announcements, TA can make you a nice living.   If you don't, you're going to get burned.   How bad, I do not know....but you will get burned.    The stocks that I know best, I usually trade around a core long position when the stock is out of whack either high or low.   It will correct to fair value.     

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#12) On October 04, 2010 at 5:45 PM, vtBrunson (51.25) wrote:

So...

you won the lottery with Visteon

09/29/10VSTOV.PK5Y$0.58$58.00 
( -3.33%)+9814.53%-0.55%+9815.08

...Which juiced your score... other than that, I probably wouldn't quit your school/day job.

 Vanity post -1 rec.

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#13) On October 04, 2010 at 6:28 PM, Griffin416 (99.98) wrote:

Thank you BillyTG, I was waiting for the spamming to slow down before I continue to write. I've been teaching off the main site in the mean time.

Jaysrage...oh boy, do we always disagree. During the market meltdown, when hedge funds had to liquidate or what ever you call it...well, fundamentals clearly did NOT matter. TA analysis would have told you to get out way earlier. You need both to survive the market. TA helps me question or verify my fundy view.

When using TA, I always recommend staying out of the way of earnings or other known anouncements that could screw up the nice trend line, up or down.

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#14) On October 04, 2010 at 8:07 PM, awallejr (82.72) wrote:

Rule changes in allowing pink sheet stocks really does mess up the system.  10,000 points off one pink sheet stock is just nuts.

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#15) On October 04, 2010 at 9:27 PM, BillyTG (29.75) wrote:

@Griff, I'd be interested in hearing your best advice on TA---books or articles to read, things you wish you knew (kind of like what you wrote about options).

@qwallejr, yes it does mess up the system.  It also makes for awesome real life gains, too! Some of my best gains and biggest amounts of money have been made with pink sheets.

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#16) On October 04, 2010 at 11:34 PM, awallejr (82.72) wrote:

Except that it was almost 8 for 1000 stock conversion.  So it really wasn't a 10,000 point true gain since the conversion rate wasn't factored in.

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#17) On October 04, 2010 at 11:43 PM, Valyooo (99.63) wrote:

Ok, what is you guys points?  My score was 97.67 before that 10,000 point gain.   I wrote this blog before that 10,000 point gain.

Your point is what exactly, and what does it have to do with my main point of doing things that make money even if it shouldn't?

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#18) On October 05, 2010 at 8:43 AM, JaysRage (90.49) wrote:

Griffin --  We do not often see eye to eye.   We have very different approaches to the market.   Both can be successful.    At the heart of the matter, fundamentals really do drive behavior.  TA is merely a latent variable that describes short term buying behavior.  Fundamentals drive long term trend lines.   

Markets melt down because the stock price is not supported fundamentally.   The hedge fund managers dumping their shares is a RESULT of the fundamentals breaking down....not the cause.  

I think TA has value.   I think it is more of a trading market than a buy and hold market right now, and a good investor will take advantage of the volatility to swing trade.   However, I also think that you had better know the fundamentals of a stock before you trade it, or you are setting yourself up for some serious trouble. 

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#19) On October 05, 2010 at 10:52 AM, Griffin416 (99.98) wrote:

Jaysrage, I'm happy we can be civilized about it. Chicken or the egg discussion, hehe.

To me, you are right, but the fundamental change is harder to see week to week and the price action will generally tell you earlier when something is wrong/ right. my 2 cents. I'm still a 70% fundamental.

As my blog back in Feb '10, I suggested we would have modest gains this year at best and people should stick with bond funds...wow was that a great call.

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