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dcsilver (< 20)

EXEL – Why FREE content on the Fool is FREE [and Rich Duprey is a FOOL]



October 11, 2011 – Comments (0) | RELATED TICKERS: EXEL , NVAX

Yesterday, October 10, 2011 Rich Duprey filed an article 3 Top Stocks at Half-Price.  Normally I glance at these stocks and just move on.  However, for the second time in recent memory Rich Duprey has written an article that is either downright ignorant, or is intentionally misleading.  The last time he backhanded a compliment to one of my stocks was NVAX.  You can see my past blogs for that. For those of you who have heard the recent Brett Farve stories about how he gave thirty backhanded compliments to Aaron Rogers in a one minute interview last week, I guess Mr. Duprey was listening.  Nothing worse than a backhanded compliment.  Therefore Rich Duprey is my FOOL of the week.

The first paragraph starts:

Although some analysts believe a new prostate cancer drug from Bayer may make the attempt by Exelixis to bring its own treatment to market superfluous, Medivation's (Nasdaq: MDVN  ) therapy has the potential to jump ahead even further. There's talk of possibly stopping clinical trials early because of the reported success so far, similar to what happened with Johnson & Johnson's Zytiga.

These drugs currently do not work.  If their ultimate success were a foregone conclusion, their stock prices would skyrocket.  The line that says “there’s talk of possibly stopping clinical trials” must be between Mr. Duprey’s two imaginary friends.  Since this is a news website, show some journalistic prowess and cite to your source. 

I do not mind, nor do I disagree that prostate cancer drugs are a competitive field.  But to say that any company either currently dominates that field or has a drug to cure prostate cancer or help patient live significantly longer lives is a joke at best, and downright wrong.  Even as his article alludes, $9 billion in sales before the decade is out, is pretty significant.  Bayer/MDVN might have commercial success first, but if a better drug is produced by EXEL, the medical community would embrace it immediately.  The fact is all of these development drug companies are fighting to prove that their drugs work.  Need I remind you that MDVN was trading at $40 a share and plunged to $13 on March 13, 2010 because their treatment for Alzheimer’s disease Dimebon failed.  Baby biotech investing is a dangerous game.

Now, if Mr. Duprey simply said that EXEL was boom or bust (shout out to GKOR), because there is not much time before topline data is announced from the exam phase III trial of cabozantinib in meduallary thyroid cancer, I would respect that.  You need chutzpah, a stomach of steel and a bottle of pepto to be invested in this stock at the moment.  Investors of EXEL are looking to those topline results to validate the proof of concept for cabo, the only relevant drug in EXEL’s pipeline. 

Now, as my other posts can tell you, I’m long on EXEL.  I’m a member of MDP and I’m riding this one out with the rest of the MDP Fools.  I’m hoping for the best, but I’m prepared if the topline results fail, because I understand the risk.  Apparently Mr. Duprey simply believes that he can predict the future.  I’m sure he lives in a fancy castle in Virginia and he tends to his unicorns in his spare time.

Now I have to go back to work, because I can’t predict the future.        

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