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portefeuille (99.58)

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June 20, 2011 – Comments (14)

I think I might have reached "journeyman" status in the area of biopharma stock analysis (see table 2.1 on p. 22 here). I think a little talent might help me get to "expert" status with quite a bit less than those famous 10000 h spent on the subject. I certainly hope I am not one of those that "despite high levels of motivation" "remain at the "proficiency level" of journeyman "for life". As I have mentioned before I do to some extent consider myself well qualified to "work in finance" as I am a theoretical physicist who has worked at a small brokerage company doing equity research and developing arbitrage strategies and have worked in finance & controlling for a startup company. I am certainly glad I have chosen biotechnology as a new area of expertise. I did have little choice though, as I am usually drawn to things that I consider interesting and that are considered "difficult" (which is how I ended up with "theoretical physics", I guess) and biotech fits quite nicely. I think it is now somewhat safer to listen to those "biopharma recommendations" I am giving via my "caps" game calls, blog posts and comments (especially the "fund" related ones, see here). The great investment related advantage of being a "journeyman" is the improved ability to find the real experts, which is, as checklist34 has suspected, my greatest talent. He is probably right about that ...

14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 21, 2011 at 12:06 AM, portefeuille (99.58) wrote:

I think I have done alright making calls on biopharma stocks with far less expertise than I now have. See this post and the biopharma trades of my "fund". Feel free to find any systematic error I am making. Maybe advice given on a Monday should be ignored or stocks should be bought 2 weeks after I recommend them, who knows ...

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#2) On June 21, 2011 at 12:12 AM, portefeuille (99.58) wrote:

absolute value of the score points (negative scores in red) made by my player portefeuille with his biopharma/instruments calls and "cumulative score points" line as of June 5, 2011 (from comment #7 here).



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#3) On June 21, 2011 at 12:25 AM, portefeuille (99.58) wrote:

table 2.1 on p. 22 here



enlarge

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#4) On June 21, 2011 at 12:32 AM, Momentum21 (94.04) wrote:

The great investment related advantage of being a "journeyman" is the improved ability to find the real experts

Filtering the expert information consistently and applying it to an investing system with discipline are key components that I have observed. Your profiency is fine by me.

True experts immersed deeply in a specific field often carry biases that may not add much value to the investing process. So perhaps too much knowledge becomes dangerous in this game. 

Carry on... : ) 

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#5) On June 21, 2011 at 12:33 AM, portefeuille (99.58) wrote:

from an autobiography by Vitaly L. Ginzburg ...

-------------------
Landau in general , especially in his youth, liked to classify everything. Later, when I got to know him, he himself looked at these classifications, for instance, of women, with irony. I shall only dwell on his classification of theoretical physicists who worked in the 20th century. It was done according to a logarithmic scale, with the base 10, so a 2nd class physicist was 10 times inferior to a 1st class physicist. It was a question of accomplishments, and not of the level of knowledge, of pedagogical ability or oratorical talent. Class 0.5 was given only to Einstein. Put into class 1 were Bohr, Dirac, Heisenberg, Schrödinger, de Broglie, Feynman. I have undoubtedly forgotten several names, but, of course, I will not supplement this list in the way I see it. I remember Pauli being put to class 1.5. Landau himself was placed in his own classification, as far as I remember, at first to class 2.5 and then to class 2. Once E. Lifshits told me that Landau had upgraded himself to class 1.5. Why does this classification seem interesting to me? First, it refutes the legends about Landau's immodesty and conceit. Secondly, it is important that he put an emphasis on the record of accomplishments, achievements.
-------------------
The classification ended with class 5 for "pathological" cases.

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#6) On June 21, 2011 at 3:30 AM, awallejr (83.81) wrote:

Porte while you always make me laugh with your multiple replies to your own posts, and your love of links, I have to say I think this blog is the most you actually have said at one time.  I tip my hat off to you and really do consider your analysis.

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#7) On June 21, 2011 at 4:33 AM, recklessfier (< 20) wrote:

I agree with awallejr =)

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#8) On June 21, 2011 at 9:20 AM, portefeuille (99.58) wrote:

Having read/watched/listened to thousands of papers, books, articles, press releases, presentations, conference calls ...

Ich bin müde.

I am tired.

 

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#9) On June 21, 2011 at 1:00 PM, ChrisGraley (29.89) wrote:

How are your classification skills?

If you are not a master classifier, you might be a master biotech investor and not know it.

 

;)

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#10) On June 21, 2011 at 5:39 PM, XMFConnor (98.01) wrote:

^ Lol

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#11) On June 21, 2011 at 9:00 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

"The great investment related advantage of being a "journeyman" is the improved ability to find the real experts"

 

Must say - I must have stumbled into this status - because I conferred the title on you - long time before you started posting the CAPS sector leaders scoreboard posts!

 

All  the best!

 

P.S. DSCO still hasn't worked out that great though!

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#12) On June 21, 2011 at 9:11 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

And you'll never hear the end of it from me.

Especially the hard time you gave me because of putting in a limit order on those 30 VMW Calls in Aug 2009!!!

 

- :)

 

 

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#13) On June 25, 2011 at 8:47 AM, portefeuille (99.58) wrote:

Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One's Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments (pdf)

Dunning–Kruger effect

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#14) On June 25, 2011 at 10:45 PM, Momentum21 (94.04) wrote:

# 13 - Good stuff...

On a similar theme:  http://www.scribd.com/doc/26701695/Scott-Plous-The-Psychology-of-Judgment-and-Decision-Making

I recently bought the book and hope that it helps to provide some clues for when I am growing too reliant on "the juice." 

 

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