You can always count on Yves to report on the what the popular media simply doesn't report. I suppose the google advertising model is giving us true freedom of the press.
In this post Yves contrasts three reports, WSJ, one of their blogs and then Brad Setser.
Popular media gives the impression that exports will save the day, or the year.
Setser shows that if you strip commodities out it is a disaster. And the average price for oil import last for the full year last year was $64.27. At $110 oil you end up an extra $200 billion needed.
Commodities such as agriculture are helping and that appears to be where considerable amounts of the gain is coming from. The gain isn't coming from value added manufacturing.