Factory Sector -- Seasonal Adjustment or Disaster?
The factory sector showed an amazing decline this past month.
I think December is probably a slower month just because of Xmas, but 47.7% from 50.8% is a decline of 6.1% on the index.
The new-order, and essentially future economy index, fell to 45.7% from 52.6%. That's a whopping 15% decline in the index and apparently only once in the past 25 years has it been lower.
Economists only excpect this thing to slide to 50.5%, so it slide 10% more than they expected.
Oh dear, here is another one that has no commentary, but looks pretty bad to me. The export orders index fell to 52.5% from 58.5%, an 11% decline.
I am fairly opinionated despite my claim that I'm not an expert (I am not), and this last one just leaves me wondering where are all the experts. The US dollar is down big time from last year and if anything, it makes their exports more competitive.
So how the heck does the export index fall 11%??????
If anything, this is the one index I would have expected to see some strength.
Seems like soon people will be able to par take in cliff diving without buying cliff diving equipment... Hmmm, learn something new every day, maybe you don't need equipment for cliff diving... It doesn't look like it.