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alstry (< 20)




July 19, 2008 – Comments (19)

WASHINGTON -- The country's largest banks, particularly those more likely to fail, will have to make changes to the way they treat deposits, as federal banking regulators prepare for more trouble in the struggling banking industry.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., led by Chairman Sheila Bair, on Thursday issued new rules requiring around 160 of the largest banks -- those with at least $2 billion in domestic deposits and either $20 billion in assets or 250,000 deposits accounts -- to adopt new procedures allowing banking regulators to settle existing accounts in the event of a bank failure.

The FDIC said the rules for big banks, which take effect Aug. 18, will "mitigate the spillover effects of a failure, such as risks to the payments system, problems stemming from depositor illiquidity and a substantial reduction in credit availability."

The new rules for large banks will require them to standardize the information they provide to the FDIC on deposit accounts, and to put in systems to automatically post possible holds on very large deposit accounts.

My CAPS friends, if you aren't worried by now, you better damn well be very very soon.  Putting "holds" on deposits.  This is the United States of America.  What the hell is a "large" deposit?

How serious is our banking crisis if these are the kinds of measures the FDIC is being forced to take?  Holding deposits.  What is next?  Limiting travel or the transfer of money.  Are we going to be told how much money we can withdraw from the bank per visit?

The journey begins with the first step.  Banks are failing.  It is obvious the FDIC is worried about more failures.  And BIG failures at that.  Clearly our government officials are worried.  They keep parading around telling us how great everything is and now starting to impose potentially draconian measures. 

Our Government only prevents naked short selling on certain banks and defacto is encouraging the behavior for those not on the "protected" list.  Something is going on....the question is what?  Just how many banks does our Government expect to fail?  Exactly what plans are being devised behind the scenes to deal with it?

Get ready, August 18th is not that far away.

Putting holds on deposits?  You gotta be kidding me!!!!!!

19 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 19, 2008 at 12:07 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.55) wrote:

I, for one, am very concerned.  I would move my holdings to a bank less likely to fail, but where might one find such a thing?

It's criminal how this is playing out... bankers create the crisis by inventing inappropriate means to leverage debt:  CDOs, credit default swaps, derivatives of all kinds that never held a single penny of actual value... pure invented value that existed only where there was a market for it.  The banks and their accomplices grew wealthy on these instruments, and now that it has turned most hastily in the other direction, it falls upon the American consumer to pay the price for their greed.  Crimes have been committed here.  The media try to pin this on mortgage practices... that's a huge lie.  The unsavory mortgage lending practices merely created the catalyst that started the inevitable unwinding of these irresponsible financial creations.  The inventors and traders in these instruments, they are the culprits... plain and simple.

In my life, I try to live by a philosophy that excludes the notion of blame, for I see the entire construct as useless and deconstructive.  In this particular instance, though, such is my ire about what is happening to our great nation that my ethos goes out the window... I can't sit by and watch mortgage lenders and house flippers to be scorned by the masses for creating this mess.... if the bankers could not see the underlying risk beneath these instruments, surely we can't expect mortgage professionals to have been the wiser.

I hope we see justice at the other end of this crisis.  Crimes have been committed, and those who are truly responsible for this mess must serve time, in my opinion.  No one's talking about this aspect of the crisis... it seems people are excepting it as some kind of natural downcycle in the banking industry.  Not so... it is the result of a culture of greed and inpropriety.

Same as it ever was.... the average citizen sits at the bottom of the totem pole, with all manner of crap falling down upon his/her head.

I'm mad.  It takes a lot to make me mad, but this has done it.  I'm mad at every individual bank that saw fit to enter into the practic of trading in these instruments.  I'm mad at the Bush administration, the Fed, and their allies who are placing banks' interests before our own. 

I'm mad at the plunge protection team and related instruments of influence that decided to draw a further line in the sand at 11,000 for the Dow, 72 for the USDX, and $990 gold.  They know a meaningful break of ay of those will create a backlash they can no longer control, so every effort was made to hold those lines. The financial rally underway is a fabrication, predicated upon an orchestrated attack on oil and gold, accountng practices that permit the banks to defer massive amounts of losses from these doomed instruments, etc.etc.  Commodity investors, you know none of this changes the underlying truth... the dollar is toast.  The Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac guarantee makes that a foregone conclusion.

I'm nervous about my equities.  SIPC assets were $1.5 B at year's end. Still think that'insurance' makes you safe?

Others of you who call your banks may be told you have supplemental insurance from a company like CAPCO, providing 'unlimited' coverage.  Laughable... Even Standard & Poors admits:

"Standard & Poor's believes CAPCO might not be able to pay multiple large claims."

The FDIC will be bankrupt with approximately 2 more IndyMacs.

And bank stocks are rising???????????????????????

Years ago when I started investing in gold and silver as a dollar hedge, I had a feeling things might get pretty nutty.  But in my wildest imagination I never could have conceived of a massive mess like the one that's playing out before our eyes.  It seems surreal.

Thanks for letting me vent.  Good luck to us all.  May your bank not be among the many that will fall.  Fool on!


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#2) On July 19, 2008 at 12:10 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

You are dead on my friend....and very few see what is coming.

The problem is if enough banks fail, the whole system fails...even if your bank doesn't fail.

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#3) On July 19, 2008 at 12:24 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

As I tried to explain to Demon in the previous the RICH are getting POORER.

Boom times for American pawnbrokers as rich hit hard timesChris Ayres

“I need $3,000,” Tito Vazquez, 45, says as he looks at his gleaming Harley-Davidson motorcycle. “But the economy's a mess right now and my credit cards are all maxed out.”

Which brings him here, to Collateral Lender, a few blocks east of ultra-posh Rodeo Drive, in Beverly Hills. In short, it is a pawn shop. Like most pawn shops in Los Angeles - home to not one but two failed mortgage lenders, Countrywide Financial and IndyMac Bank - it is doing a roaring trade.

For Mr Vazquez, that is not good news: Collateral Lender has so many Harleys it does not have room for any more.

Too many what is a Harley worth????  Stocks, bonds, real estate, and now Harleys falling in that inflation or deflation.

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#4) On July 19, 2008 at 1:40 PM, MarketBottom (28.50) wrote:

During these times the following will be especially true.


August also looks like it may be the month for one or more profound events. 

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#5) On July 19, 2008 at 1:59 PM, LordZ wrote:

You can get up to 50 million dollars FDIC insured at no additional cost to the depositor !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


READ MY BLOG I have the link there...

Alstry I hope your making money from the perceived misery ??

are you long the misery index ???

Its sad that freddie and fannie are now paying 14% financing to support 7% loans on real estate....

If that isnt a broken model I dont know what than is.

however, even if they go under, there stills going to be money thats going to be available to finance acquisitions finance home purchases, and now just maybe the cost of said capital will be paid the proper return on risk.


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#6) On July 19, 2008 at 2:46 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


If the cost of capital will rise to the peceived risk...what will that cost be and how far will asset values have to fall to compensate for the rise in cost of capital?

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#7) On July 19, 2008 at 3:19 PM, LordZ wrote:

Costs have been kept low, interest rates are a joke, especially when borrowers are cut off and than subject to the market for $$$

look at the great freddie and fannie, they are and probably will be forced to pay 20% on any future borrowings to support 6-7% loans on property ?

simple math would tell you that borrowing money at high rates to support lower rates on home ownership is a losing proposition unless of course we the tax payers come in and cover the difference, and personally I don't think we should be paying taxes to support low interest rates.

that sounds like a lose lose proposition.

Lets privatize this lending, home loan rates at 10% is not ridiculous and if you cannot afford 10% well than you need to save up your money and pay cash or better put you really can't afford that home if you cannot afford to pay 10% on the loan.

But we have fools thinking that its their god given rights to get someone else to fund their purchase and have the benefit of inflation and time to pay back whats been borrowed.

I've heard stories of people living for free on their loans and when their property didnt appreciate to refinance yet again to fund themselves they simply ran away from their obligations.

Some even felt pissed that they were wronged, being offered tons of cash collateralized by the property.

The cost Alstry will be whatever is agreed upon between lender and borrower, values will need to move to whatever real world markets dictate and the longer we prolong correction thru tax funded assistance thru governmental sponsored assistance, thru bull crap legislation, the longer it will take for real world stabilization and efficent markets.

Imagine a band aid that has been superglued on a deep cut, eventually the band aid ceases to work and will need to be removed, you can slowly take it off as to minimize the discomfort or you can rip it off and see what the wound looks like and let the fresh air get to the oxygen deprived flesh.

again risk is perceived and costs will vary based upon the perceived risk some risk people will never account for, some they will under account for and some will be over accounted for.

If there was no risk, the market would work like certificates of deposits, it would be rather plain and bland with only those with the most capital still making the most money still making most of the rules of the game.

What really has changed ???


one day people are willing to pay more

and the next day they arent

Forecast calls for INFLATION

anything real and needed should appreciate in value a lot...

metals, oils, food, beverages, and household necessities.

anything unreal should see depreciation in value...

investment services, banking, bank services, discretionary spending and items.

maybe that boat dealer will have to change strategies and will only be able to sell to the extremely well off and unaffected members.

maybe the 300 dollar and hour entertainer will now be forced to service 100 dollar clients or will have to step up to 1,000 to 5,000 clients who will demand a better product and service.

its all based upon your perception.

eat well...

drink well

for tommorrow may never come.


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#8) On July 19, 2008 at 3:23 PM, LordZ wrote:

and when tommorrow does come,

she may be pissed

really pissed


making you wish

she never came :)

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#9) On July 19, 2008 at 3:37 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


If enough people get fired, few will be able to buy anything, at any rate of interest....right now the layoffs are accellerating:

“Employers jettisoned 6,800 jobs in the East Bay in June, state labor officials reported Friday. The East Bay has lost 18,500 jobs in 2008. More than 10,000 of those jobs vanished in the past two months. The job losses in the East Bay were so severe that they accounted for more than half of all jobs lost in California last month. Statewide, 12,800 jobs were lost in June, the state’s Employment Development Department reported.”

“‘The East Bay is being pummelled,’ said Christopher Thornberg, a partner with Beacon Economics. ‘The whole state is in recession and so is the East Bay.’”

“‘It’s difficult to find work, very much so,’ said Shuandra Plute, a Pleasanton resident who has considerable experience in the mortgage industry.”

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#10) On July 19, 2008 at 4:58 PM, goldpaw (< 20) wrote:

This is an extremely worrying development by the FDIC. Essentially they are threatening to hold up to 320 billion dollars of domestic deposits under lock and key.  We can all remember what happened when the Government of Argentine tried that a few years ago. 

The FDIC is further seeking to control a further $3,200 billion is assets, and control what happens to up to 40,000,000 (yes 40 million) deposit accounts.

Is this likely to cause a run on some banks, you bet it will when the public understands what is happening.  Another Northern Rock debacle (when the British Governent had to take control of this building society last year when huge lines of depositors tried to take their money out). Multiply this several times over and we have a problem.

  This, should it happen, will reverberate through banks throughout the world, particularly the Western world.

But what to do with the money should you take it out of the bank?  I can only think of investing it gold, and keeping a lot in cash and foreign currencies.  Of course the FDIC will have thought of that and will have in place a further plan to stop US citizens moving their money into other currencies and prevent flight capital.

 The FDIC have made a very bad move, which could possibly turn a bad situation into a total disaster.  Good luck my friends - from an English investor.

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#11) On July 19, 2008 at 5:06 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

You are absolutely right.  The plan calls for a phase in with the weakest banks first...........once those banks are identified can bet there will be long lines of people demanding withdrawals.

The Fed no doubt is setting up contingency plans already....maybe prohibiting the transfer of money overseas, limiting the purchase of gold, ect....

We are likely to hear about this behavior over the next few weeks as the plan gets phased in......crazy times indeed.

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#12) On July 19, 2008 at 6:00 PM, DemonDoug (31.42) wrote:

Al, I believe you are right when you say the rich are currently losing wealth.  I'm talking more of the long-term process whereby the bankers and the people that control the money build more wealth for themselves by constantly inflating the currency.  They know there is no straight line up so periods of pain like this I'm sure some of them use as an opportunity to soak the people even more.  You did see about how the government basically gave JPM 29billion dollars back in march right?  And all those BSC executives still got filthy rich off of bonuses and sales of BSC stock.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a gold restriction put in place a la the 1930s.  The government has continued on this rampage of socialist economics for years now and it's not going to stop, although I agree with you that it's not going to stop the continued downfall of many companies.

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#13) On July 19, 2008 at 8:17 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


Where my deflation argument really kicks in is in the upcoming layoffs.  I just don't see how we can have inflation with a 20 to 30% unemployment rate.

Autos....Laying off 20 to 30% of workers

Airlines....Laying off 20%, 30%, even 100% of workers

Banks....Laying off 10%, 20% and more of workers

Construction companies.....Laying off 50% and more of workers

Mortgage companies....Laying off 70%, 80% and more of workers

Trucking Companies....Laying off 20%, 30% and more of workers

Media Companies....Laying off 10% to 20% of workers

Retailers....10%, 20% and more of workers...same with Restaurants

Now even health insurers and drug companies are starting to let workers go.

Many many businesses are laying off 10%, 20% and more of their workforce.  Many others are shutting down completely.  Now governments too are cutting back.  When the airlines start pulling flights in a few weeks, expect tourism businesses to start scaling back.

Many workers are being forced to take paycuts to maintain their jobs.  Others are finding replacement work at a fraction of their old compensation.

What is unusual about the current period is that all of the layoffs and cutbacks are so large and are happening at the same time.  It is not isolated to just one industry.  The impact has only recently started to be felt and will really pick up in upcoming weeks as the recently announced cutbacks get implemented and counted.

As the jobs get cut, so will the income tax revenus.  When tourism slows, sales tax revenues will drop.  Unemployment benefits will rise.  Less revenues and higher expenses will only force governments to cut back even more. 

The following is just an example of the accellerating pace of layoffs:

“Employers jettisoned 6,800 jobs in the East Bay in June, state labor officials reported Friday. The East Bay has lost 18,500 jobs in 2008. More than 10,000 of those jobs vanished in the past two months. The job losses in the East Bay were so severe that they accounted for more than half of all jobs lost in California last month. Statewide, 12,800 jobs were lost in June, the state’s Employment Development Department reported.”

“‘The East Bay is being pummelled,’ said Christopher Thornberg, a partner with Beacon Economics. ‘The whole state is in recession and so is the East Bay.’”

“‘It’s difficult to find work, very much so,’ said Shuandra Plute, a Pleasanton resident who has considerable experience in the mortgage industry.”

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#14) On July 20, 2008 at 12:21 AM, DemonDoug (31.42) wrote:

I just don't see how we can have inflation with a 20 to 30% unemployment rate.

Other people who didn't understand why they had inflation with high unemployment:



Zimbabwe (85% unemployment - now dang it with that high of an unemployment and no one getting paid, how the sam hill are they having some of the highest inflation rates in all of mankind?)

Weimar Germany



Greece, Hungary, China, Bolivia, Austria, Angola, Belarus, Nicaragua, Romania... okay I'm tired of typing all of the examples of inflationary recession/depression.

The fact is, I can adequately explain why all of these countries and societies had high unemployment with high inflation.  More to the point I understand the forces behind the malinvestment that causes these conditions, yet you (and a rare few others) draw the straight line between unemployment and decreasing income with deflation.  If we are in a true deflation, then please explain to me how consumer prices are continuing to rise, money supply is continuing to rise, and even producer prices are continuing to rise?  (You can't - because it doesn't follow with deflation.  Deflation is not just a decrease in asset prices.  Asset prices are a construct of the FIRE economy, which is related but seperate from the production/consumption "real" economy.)

The reason stocks are going down is not because of inflation; it's just that stocks are losing value faster than inflation.

Also, if unemployment = deflation, how come we didn't have deflation in the late 1970s?

and again i know I'm just going to get yet another tangential arguement about housing prices (not part of inflation) or stocks going down or some other non p/c economy thing that has nothing to do with the price of bread on a sunday.

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#15) On July 20, 2008 at 12:29 AM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Chase and BAC will go down. Look at their ballance and look at what is off book with the Fed that come due in Sept. YOUR DEPOSIT IS ONLY INSURED FOR 100,000.00 PER PERSON NOT ACCOUNT SO IF YOU HAVE CHECKING AND SAVINGINGS OVER 100K YOU NEED 2 BANKS. IF SAVINGS CHECKING AND 401K DON'T HAVE OVER 350K. Buy gold rings to sell letter. you will need it. What happens if the USA looses its aaa rating. Are you prepared for a 50% devaluation in the dollar? Doubble everything you are paying now.

Press Releases
Joint Release Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
Office of Thrift Supervision
For Immediate Release July 15, 2008
Agencies Issue Final Guidance on Supervisory Review Process (Pillar 2) Related to Implementation of Basel II Advanced Approaches Rule

The federal banking and thrift agencies today issued final guidance outlining the supervisory review process for banking organizations implementing the new advanced capital adequacy framework known as Basel II. The final guidance relating to supervisory review is aimed at helping banking organizations meet certain qualification requirements in the advanced approaches rule, which took effect April 1.

The advanced approaches rule consists of three pillars: minimum risk-based capital requirements (Pillar 1); supervisory review of capital adequacy (Pillar 2); and market discipline through enhanced public disclosures (Pillar 3). The final Pillar 2 guidance details the agencies' standards for ensuring that each institution subject to the advanced approaches rule has a rigorous process for assessing its overall capital adequacy in relation to its risk profile and a comprehensive strategy for maintaining appropriate capital levels.

Although the guidance does not differ significantly from the proposed Pillar 2 guidance issued in February 2007, the agencies made some enhancements based on comments received and in consideration of key lessons from the events of the past year. The Pillar 2 guidance is being issued by the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Office of Thrift Supervision. The effective date of the Pillar 2 guidance is 30 days following its publication in the Federal Register, which is expected shortly. The final Pillar 2 guidance is attached.

# # #

Supervisory Guidance: Supervisory Review Process of Capital Adequacy (Pillar 2) Related to the Implementation of the Basel II Advanced Capital Framework - PDF (PDF Help)

Media Contacts:

Federal Reserve Deborah Lagomarsino (202) 452-2955 FDIC LaJuan Williams-Dickerson (202) 898-6993 OCC Kevin Mukri (202) 874-5770 OTS William Ruberry (202) 906-6677

FDIC-PR-59-2008This was for March we dont have the current ones.

FDIC-insured Subsidiaries of JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. New York, NY  BHC ID#: 1039502    Note: Important Information About This Data 1 Definition Dollar figures in thousands JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 1
New York, NY
March 31, 2008 JPMORGAN CHASE & CO. 1
New York, NY
March 31, 2007 1Number of institutions reporting44     All Summary Information     Assets and Liabilities

2Total employees (full-time equivalent) 156,373155,7993Total assets 1,484,569,1641,298,666,3514Cash and due from depository institutions 63,133,26365,405,7525Interest-bearing balances 16,154,97533,571,8286Securities 94,537,67991,371,3827Federal funds sold & reverse repurchase agreements 292,077,014265,415,2508Net loans & leases 523,655,613460,525,9879Loan loss allowance 11,690,5057,254,64310Trading account assets 380,248,000296,497,00011Bank premises and fixed assets 7,860,7287,232,13812Other real estate owned 528,000386,31413Goodwill and other intangibles 52,064,35252,685,45414All other assets 70,464,51559,147,07415Life insurance assets 7,536,0007,251,000Total liabilities and capital ">16Total liabilities and capital 1,484,569,1641,298,666,35117Total liabilities 1,351,725,6871,178,524,05418Total deposits 852,639,909675,624,18019Interest-bearing deposits 711,008,087537,063,78320Deposits held in domestic offices 533,857,909472,601,56721% insured (estimated) 28.72%31.32%22Federal funds purchased & repurchase agreements 179,107,000227,970,00023Trading liabilities 138,166,000120,672,00024Other borrowed funds 84,218,73675,850,31625Subordinated debt 26,870,00023,806,00026All other liabilities 70,724,04254,601,558Equity capital">27Equity capital Report.">Equity capital 132,843,477120,142,29728Perpetual preferred stock 0029Common stock 1,835,1151,835,11530Surplus 79,794,46377,311,81131Undivided profits 51,213,89940,995,371
Memoranda:32Noncurrent loans and leases 8,251,8344,755,81133Noncurrent loans that are wholly or partially guaranteed by the U.S. government 1,686,0001,097,00034Income earned, not collected on loans 6,850,2336,858,02735Earning assets 1,215,873,2811,100,715,44736Long-term assets (5+ years) 159,119,084162,160,51637Average Assets, year-to-date 1,440,793,9561,281,244,45838Average Assets, quarterly 1,440,793,9561,281,244,45839Volatile liabilities 743,679,872636,950,92740Insider loans 1,230,2801,380,39441FHLB advances 3,619,000148,00042Loans and leases held for sale 14,813,00050,185,00043Unused loan commitments 1,127,230,6071,041,178,65944Tier 1 (core) capital 91,522,88080,010,83945Total risk weighted assets 1,043,545,037955,863,23546Total unused commitments 1,127,230,6071,041,178,65947Restructured Loans and leases 321,000048Derivatives 90,408,468,77871,228,563,212
Past due and nonaccrual assets  
Fiduciary and related services       Income and Expense(Year-to-date)(Year-to-date)49Number of institutions reporting 4450Total interest income 15,985,10815,664,77751Total interest expense 8,165,2719,220,76052Net interest income 7,819,8376,444,01753Provision for loan and lease losses 4,402,856979,81854Total noninterest income 11,394,39410,064,78855Fiduciary activities 924,372786,55656Service charges on deposit accounts 787,106655,12257Trading account gains & fees 2,473,0002,949,73858Additional noninterest income 7,209,9165,673,37259Total noninterest expense 8,560,93710,045,82760Salaries and employee benefits 3,703,8544,901,45761Premises and equipment expense 1,490,7421,467,27662Additional noninterest expense 3,366,3413,677,09463Pre-tax net operating income 6,250,4385,483,16064Securities gains (losses) 55,000-2,00065Applicable income taxes 2,334,8021,970,17166Income before extraordinary items 3,970,6363,510,98967Extraordinary gains - net 0068Net income 3,970,6363,510,98969Net charge-offs 1,893,153903,88770Cash dividends 02,500,00071Sale, conversion, retirement of capital stock, net 0072Net operating income 3,935,4363,512,269
Memo:     Performance and Condition Ratios

73% of unprofitable institutions N/AN/A74% of institutions with earnings gains 50.00%25.00%                 Performance Ratios (%, annualized)(Year-to-date)(Year-to-date)75Yield on earning assets 5.38%5.82%76Cost of funding earning assets 2.75%3.42%77Net interest margin 2.63%2.39%78Noninterest income to earning assets 3.84%3.74%79Noninterest expense to earning assets 2.88%3.73%80Net operating income to assets 1.09%1.10%81Return on assets (ROA) 1.10%1.10%82Pretax return on assets 1.75%1.71%83Return on equity (ROE) 12.15%11.78%84Retained earnings to average equity (YTD only) 12.15%3.39%85Net charge-offs to loans 1.40%0.76%86Credit loss provision to net charge-offs 232.57%108.40%87Earnings coverage of net loan charge-offs (x) 5.637.1588Efficiency ratio 42.97%58.75%89Assets per employee ($ millions) 9.498.3490Cash dividends to net income (YTD only) 071.21%
Condition Ratios (%)91Loss allowance to loans 2.18%1.55%92Loss allowance to noncurrent loans 141.67%152.54%93Noncurrent assets plus other real estate owned to assets 0.59%0.40%94Noncurrent loans to loans 1.54%1.02%95Net loans and leases to deposits 61.42%68.16%96Net loans and leases to core deposits 137.57%126.79%97Equity capital to assets 8.95%9.25%98Core capital (leverage) ratio 6.65%6.50%99Tier 1 risk-based capital ratio 8.77%8.37%100Total risk-based capital ratio 12.40%11.43%
Memoranda:101Average assets 1,440,793,9561,281,244,458102Average earning assets 1,187,692,0381,077,258,841103Average equity 130,671,516119,242,187104Average loans 542,220,279473,484,357


How to save this report 1 Financial data for bank holding companies represent the summation of FFIEC Call Reports or OTS Thrift Financial Reports (TFR) filed by all FDIC-insured bank and thrift subsidiaries held by a bank holding company, and do not reflect nondeposit subsidiaries or parent companies. Data values have not been adjusted for intra-company transactions. Additional holding company information can be found at the website for the Federal Reserve System--National Information Center (NIC).     Questions, Suggestions & Requests

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#16) On July 20, 2008 at 12:47 AM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

This is how the Great Depression started and just think how much bigger the economy is now compared to then. It is so bad out there that the illeagle workers are going home because they can't find work.

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#17) On July 20, 2008 at 7:26 AM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


You keep missing the point with me about inflation/deflation.  Simply this, youi think money supply is rising, I think it is falling.  If you define money supply by M3, than you are right.  If you define it by M3 plus credit, than I think the argument tilts more towards me.

The rise and fall in wages, commodity and asset prices is simply evidence of inflation/deflation.

In the past seven years, we loaned out trillions and trillions of dollars to businesses, individuals, and local governments.  The creation of credit was far greater than the expansion of M3.  The spending boom was incredible, especially if you add in the cost of wars.

As a result, demand for everything exploded, supply became tight and prices rose....for everything.  Now credit is contracting at a much faster rate than M3 is growing.  As a result, demand for many things is starting to fall. 

At this point, whether commodity prices keep rising is yet to be seen as demand pulls back.  We know housing, wages, and asset values are falling in dollar terms.

At the end of the day, if America has to start spending its savings, without offsetting credit expansion, to buy commodities and other things, expect M3 to fall and than the debate should be resolved.

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#18) On July 20, 2008 at 6:32 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.11) wrote:


If a big chunk of what we purchase is imported (and that share is much greater than it used to be) and the USD continues to tank (which it will as confidence continues to deteriorate and may soon plunge), import prices will have to rise dramatically to offset the falling dollar.  This will keep inflation spiraling upward.

I'm with the inflationists overall.  Althought I agree that asset deflation (i.e. housing, autos, etc) is here to stay for a long time.  I just wish I was renting instead of owning a house... ;) Report this comment
#19) On August 09, 2008 at 1:12 PM, dwot (28.81) wrote:

Great, hold deposits so payrolls can't be paid...

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