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Fear the market! binve is back >20 !!

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May 06, 2010 – Comments (23)

Fear the market! The angel of death has returned!!!

.... Well, I only peaked out at 26 today. So maybe it's too early to get worked up :)

23 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 06, 2010 at 3:41 PM, catoismymotor (46.33) wrote:

Nah, feel free to freak out. :)

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#2) On May 06, 2010 at 3:45 PM, outoffocus (22.82) wrote:

Congrats! I am also out of the beanie dungeon today. How does it feel to breath fresh air again? Do you think the bulls will take us back under again tomorrow?

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#3) On May 06, 2010 at 3:55 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

outoffocus ,

Thanks! At least we are in good company :)

As far as tomorrow, I doubt this roller coaster is over. All the people who haven't seen the markets today will read the headlines tonight. I bet brokers will be filling a lot of "get me the f*** out this crazy market" orders tomorrow..

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#4) On May 06, 2010 at 4:03 PM, memoandstitch (< 20) wrote:

Isn't CAPS score relative to the S&P500?  The S&P500 must not have gone down by a lot.  Strange.

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#5) On May 06, 2010 at 4:12 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Hey binve,

I agree, the market open tomorrow will be quite a mess but betting the shorts flee the scene before the weekend.

Best, IIcx 

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#6) On May 06, 2010 at 4:14 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Hey llcx!

Good to see you man!

>>I agree, the market open tomorrow will be quite a mess but betting the shorts flee the scene before the weekend.

Yep, but I think the longs fleeing will be a bigger deal. The bears are dead. This last wave killed them (us). 

So when the longs leave, then the markets fall like a rock. Bulls are still in control, for both the upside and the downside. I think the move spooked the cattle.

Thanks man!

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#7) On May 06, 2010 at 4:17 PM, outoffocus (22.82) wrote:

In other news, Gold freakin skyrocketed today. Now its sitting over $1200/oz. Yay gold!

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#8) On May 06, 2010 at 4:19 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

outoffocus: booyahh :).

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#9) On May 06, 2010 at 4:39 PM, imobillc (< 20) wrote:

I shall overcome "someday".... 

Mars 

 

Good luck! 

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#10) On May 06, 2010 at 4:49 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

imobillc, LOL! Thanks man, you too!

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#11) On May 06, 2010 at 7:06 PM, alexpaz (28.87) wrote:

WHOOOO, back from the DEAD!!!!!!

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#12) On May 06, 2010 at 7:13 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Hey alex! Yep, but I am still mostly dead :) A few more days of this then I can start growing some arms and legs back :)

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#13) On May 06, 2010 at 7:58 PM, uclayoda87 (29.16) wrote:

I'm 1730 points closer to being in positive territory, only 15781 more points to go.  I called a top today on my Blog, which I submitted just after midnight.  I was motivated by the fact that I'm now fully invested in the market.  Fortunately I own a lot of miners and metals.

Earthquakes and Tsunamis, life in the age of Bubbles.

 

 

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#14) On May 06, 2010 at 8:39 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Great to see you to!

I agree, after reviewing the news this evening, its likely the Bulls will flee tomorrow unless the Euro mess is resolved.

On the other hand, we were due for a correction but, with the dramatic move today, its going to be tough not to ride some of the moves.

We got a 3 month correction in the last few days.

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#15) On May 06, 2010 at 9:13 PM, Tastylunch (29.21) wrote:

Binve you know've gone positive and I'm an alsstar again, you what this means

DOW 36,000

:)

I got the one day hottest member charm and last week I had the 7day coldest hahaha. This is nuts!

talk about being too correlated to market direction. :)

 honestly I think today is Hal 9000 gone nuts more than anything else. There has been talk for months of the market being potentially susceptible to events like this given the very weak internals and dominance of HFT trading...

WHEEEEeeeee.....

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#16) On May 06, 2010 at 10:25 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

uclayoda87 ,

Right on man! Nice call! :)

IIcx ,

Exactly man, 3 months worth of building undone in a few hours. That is not a bear raid. That is bulls fleeing.

The really big drops won't come because of short sellers, it will be because no one is buying.

Tastylunch ,

LOL! This is one crazy market my man :)

>>I got the one day hottest member charm and last week I had the 7day coldest hahaha. This is nuts!

LOL! That same thing happened with binv271828 about 2 years ago.

>> honestly I think today is Hal 9000 gone nuts more than anything else.

Actually, I don't agree. HAL excaserbated it, but it far from caused it. Read this comment from my other blog:

http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/wow.html#comment-48733139.

LOL! This will be very interesting (and fun) :).

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#17) On May 06, 2010 at 10:27 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Oops, it is actually this comment http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/wow.html#comment-48735014..

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#18) On May 06, 2010 at 10:36 PM, Momentum21 (95.94) wrote:

binve - tomorrow feels like the Superbowl, Stanley Cup Finals and World Series all bottled up. Fireworks baby. I wish you well but it appears that you doing well loses me lots of money! : )

Good luck... 

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#19) On May 06, 2010 at 10:38 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Momentum21,

>>tomorrow feels like the Superbowl, Stanley Cup Finals and World Series all bottled up. Fireworks baby.

LOL! Or Dodgeball :)

>>I wish you well but it appears that you doing well loses me lots of money! : )

LOL! The bulls made plenty of money off me the last few months. Time to get some of it back :) Good luck to you too man!..

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#20) On May 07, 2010 at 12:27 AM, Tastylunch (29.21) wrote:

>>Actually, I don't agree. HAL excaserbated it, but it far from caused it. Read this comment from my other blog:

I guess we disagree then Binve buddy, if the market had declined 1% no MSM would be all upset.

No doubt we both agree the market is over bullish given Euirope  and japan in particular.

But with ACN and other down to merer pennies per share in microseconds I can't see how HAL 9000 isnt to blame. If that hadn't happened it would be just another down day on a fairly orderly slide.

The bulls just better hope this doesn't cascade 2008 style. remember when UAUA did this in 2008? It was a warning shot for what happened in september....

I do agree this is sign of very low confidence on the parts of longs. As we've both noted for nearly half a year, the quality of the liquidity in this rally is just awful compared to what it *should* be if it were purely organic.

>>LOL! This will be very interesting (and fun) :).

Dunno about you but I'm getting up very early tomorrow. :)

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#21) On May 07, 2010 at 12:54 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Tastylunch ,

Hey man. So what I am getting at is the time line. Early this morning after about an hour and a half of trading **well before** we go the crazy spike, I wrote this post:

http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/1-2-heaven.html

I was already antcipating this very bearish setup. Things were in motion long before HAL go involved.

The a few hours later, I wrote this post:

http://marketthoughtsandanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/05/there-is-word-for-days-like-today.html

You can see based on the timing, this is before HAL f***s everything up. Up to this point, everything is just a very bearish setup with an extended 3rd wave.

That is what I am getting at. People were headed to the exits long before HAL messed everything up.

About 10 minutes after the second post above, *then I completely* agree with you. HAL screwed up everything.

It is exactly like an unstable control surface. It works linearly right up to a point (like the flutter speed) and the the response is bifurcated. As this was going down, my first thought was: this is a positive feedback loop.

It was *started* by people leaving, it was *exascerbated* by HAL because the HFTs all got on the same side of the trade and the microsecond shorts got combined with real selling from the market (which we haven't seen in 1.5 years) and the positive feedback was borne.

I hope that clarifies my statement above.

>>The bulls just better hope this doesn't cascade 2008 style. remember when UAUA did this in 2008? It was a warning shot for what happened in september....

I think this could be the start of something very serious.

>>I do agree this is sign of very low confidence on the parts of longs. As we've both noted for nearly half a year, the quality of the liquidity in this rally is just awful compared to what it *should* be if it were purely organic.

I am in total agreement.

>>Dunno about you but I'm getting up very early tomorrow. :)

Yep, but it will be for work :(. The market is getting interesting and I haven't been this busy at work for the last 2 years (right around the same time of the 2008 crash, I was crazy busy at work too). Coincidence? I think not!!! :)

Take care my man! Have fun on the battlefield :)..

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#22) On May 07, 2010 at 2:22 AM, ralphmachio (24.77) wrote:

Wave 3 down?

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#23) On May 07, 2010 at 8:59 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

ralphmachio , .

It is to early to sepeculate on any specific count. There is too much garbage on the chart (the super volatile after waves). But when this shakes out , calms down for a bit in the next few days I think yesterday will turn out to be Minor 1 of Int 1 of P3. See the links above in comment #21. The move was clearly impulsive and accelerating long before HAL9000 started screwing with it. The more I look at it, the more it screams trend change. I think P2 as a very high probability now of being done 2 weeks ago..

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