April 30, 2008
– Comments (7) |
RELATED TICKERS: MOS
As the dollar collapses, those holding the dollars are trading the US dollar for real assets/commodities. Including fertilizers and phosphates etc....
Food Price Inflation is Just beginning.
Food crisis: economic fallout & investment opportunities
Free Rice, Don't Panic (Humor, not that funny....):
I am getting crushed on my underperforms of fertilizer stocks, so I talked to a dairy farmer to get a sense of what the moment was about; he said China is buying all the phosphate from Canada. This is driving up the price of fertilizer and fertilizer companies.
I guess should add Canada and Australia to the list with Africa and South America.
How long will countries take worthless US dollars for REAL assets? It is a huge question and I guess it comes down to the meaning of worthless. I think most are presuming the dollar is just worth less, but some are frantically buying up anything and everything like they believe the $ might become worthless.
I hope for the sake of all of us it is just worth less. Maybe China and others will burn through their surplus of dollars and the good ol USA will work on reducing our deficit and get back to innovation, what we do best.
Either way, its gonna hurt for a few years, maybe more, but we will survive.
Jerry Garcia told me so.
Hang in there Aba.
Yeah mos definitely agree , Last weekend PF Chang's here in Ohio had no rice for any customers....that can't be good for asian restaurants. I bet the smaller restaurants are faring even worse...
as the song as says
ah if only youtube had the Carl Weathers version
There's a 1 in 3 chance of drought occurring this year, and if it doesn't happen it only increases the risk of a drought the following year (similar to how hurricane seasons work).
You should go back to the conference call from Monsanto. You'd notice something VERY strange. They will be releasing a new product line and they are confident that they will continue to expand up to 2012 and beyond unaffected by commodity prices or lower demand... What and how? Well, you know very well that Monsanto is the dope dealer to the agriculture industry.
Fuel prices? A gallon of organic milk is about $7...
As the price of food continues to soar more people in more countries are going to shift towards GM(genetically-modified) foods and more drought resistant seeds. It's already been allowed in much of the EU and is being debated in Japan. People will shift towards it despite the labeling efforts...
Besides it's the year 2000(Y2K)... We're not even supposed to be eating food. We're supposed to get all our calories and nutrition from a pill and be in flying cars.
I owns shares of Bunge(BG), Syngenta(SYT), and 'evil' Monsanto(MON).
In Burkina Faso, I saw a Government working to import drought resistant seeds and better manage scarce water supplies, helped by nations such as Brazil. - U.N. Report (article here)
Change of Midwest Drought Heats Up - Chicago Tribue (April 18, 2008)
I own my own sports nutrition business in Canada and I can tell you first-hand that the price of whey protein has skyrocketed in the past 6 months or so for a few reasons, but mainly it's increased demand from the Chinese, just like there'll be increased demand from them for pretty much everything especially food-related.
I love the agriculture stocks you mentioned that you're getting killed on. I keep hearing about how overpriced they are, but the demand for food is not coming down for the foreseeable future.
In my humble opinion, pretty much any pick on here in agriculture or a commodities index stock is going to be a good choice over the long-term.
A Karen Carpernter video while discussing food inflation? The irony is worth a REC
I am not sure of the odds of a drought.
But I think things might get pretty crazy across the globe if there is anymore hyper-inflation in food commodities.
Well, you know very well that Monsanto is the dope dealer to the agriculture industry.
lol- NWA wrote a song about it:
Chorus:Dope man dope manHey man give me a hitDope man dope manHey yo F... that sh..Dope man dope manWe just cant quitDope man dope manWell suck this....
Ag is working as my point loss on MOS, POT, and AGU is proving. I like real asset/commodity producing companies in general.
I underperform those fertilizer stocks for:
1. The parabolic move up in a short period of time.
2. I hate a couple of the hedge funds that are behind the run up
3. There is competition, so I wrongly figured there would be a loss of pricing power.
4. Government may get involved if there is a parabolic rise in fertilizer/food prices. Nixon tried pricing controls here in the US. Asia is setting pricing controls now.
5. I expected input costs (ie commodities) to bring down margins.
jahbu,How long will countries take worthless US dollars for REAL assets? As long as the US will continue to sell itself to foreigners. The world will continue to take dollars. The US sold $290 billion of itself last year. We are blocking some sales. ie We stopped Dubai from buying all our East Coast ports, China purchase of Unical etc....
can we stop this?