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FIN 101: Spotting Gurus, Paid Liars, Fools and Cheerleaders



May 10, 2008 – Comments (18) | RELATED TICKERS: CRM , MBI , ALD

“If you can't spot the sucker at the table after 10 minutes, leave... it's you. “

-Poker Quote

“You want winners? You want me to put my Cramer Berkowitz hedge fund hat on and just discuss what my fund is buying today to try to make money tomorrow and thenext day and the next? You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now.

OK. Here goes. Write them down -- no handouts here!: 724 Solutions (SVNX:Nasdaq), Ariba (ARBA:Nasdaq), Digital Island (ISLD:Nasdaq), Exodus (EXDS:Nasdaq), (INSP:Nasdaq), Inktomi (INKT:Nasdaq), Mercury Interactive (MERQ:Nasdaq), Sonera (SNRA:Nasdaq), VeriSign (VRSN:Nasdaq) and Veritas Software (VRTS:Nasdaq).

 His speech was intended to show investors value in these already very valued stocks. But his speech most serves as the checkpoint in time where the bubble was at its eclipse. After a few more weeks of bubbling, the bubble burst. Lockup periods and greed prevented nearly all from realizing any money and sent many investors into bankruptcy. The NASDAQ plummeted from an intra-day high on March 10th 2000 of $5132 to an intra-day low of $1387 on September 21st 2001, ten days into the aftermath of September 11. Seventy-three percent of the value of the NASDAQ had disappeared in less than a year and a half.”

Jim Cramer on Feb 29th of 2000, keynote speech at the 6th Annual Internet and Electronic Commerce Conference and Exposition. (


Learning to spot Gurus, Paid Liars, Fools and Cheerleaders is a valuable talent. Using CNBC, CAPS, the legacy media and the internet to find gurus, liars and fools is a great way to improve and protect your portfolio.


This is a continuation of my post from Friday. 

On Wall Street there are people, who make a living by investing and those, who make a living selling financial advice, if those that sold advice actually followed their own advice many would go broke.  Steve Forbes-

It is a challenge to find honest people, who have good track records. Then to get them to talk in public can even more difficult.  If you are a SUCESSFUL money manager/investor, the MONEY WILL FIND YOU, people are constantly searching for better returns on their money. Nothing sells like success, and success on Wall Street is easy to track.  

One of the best books on the stock market Gurus is Market Wizards. Many REAL stock market Gurus in the book avoid the media, attention and provide little insight into what they actually do. They don’t need the media and why would they “give away” their techniques, that made them successful.

I like CNBC. Like any source of propaganda, as long as you understand what is going on, you can find some wisdom and truth in CNBC. But much of what goes on CNBC is cheerleading, BS and propaganda.

I use CNBC to spot liars, fools and Gurus. Many CEOs that come on CNBC, are in trouble, they can throw more “gas on the fire” of a rumor about their company. I think it is a great tool to find troubled CEOs, BS companies and garbage stocks. My CRM underperform came after seeing the CEO on MadMoney, looking at the insider selling plus a good CAPS review, then I UNDERPERORM CRM. (No, position in CRM)

The more a company is shilled on CNBC the more I look into underperforming it. 

However, one of my most lucrative trades came off Fast Money, when one of the Meat Heads talked about the problems at ETrade. I dug into it, it turns out the Meat Head was right. I make $8k in one day from Fast Money Meathead, who is wrong more often then he is right.

On the other side: CROX, I was short CROX to early and lost money. When KFine said "LONG CROX", my WAG from her shilling, something was a miss, CROX was CROXed cut by 35% in a day shortly after her plug. 

CAPS is a great platform to find/track paid liars. Take a look at the Wall Street Worst.

If you are new to CAPS and looking for ideas, why not take the opposite side trade of a lousy analyst? IMO many analysts are paid shills, who are paid to pump garbage out to the public, so a fund can unload. Why not take a gander in some of their calls and the timing?

Lehman Brothers reiterated its $110 price target for Bear on March 13, three days before Bear got sold for $2 a share to J.P. Morgan Chase.

CNBC August 2006, Spot the: cheerleader, fool/liar, guru here:

CNBC May 9 2008, make a call here: William Ackman, Pershing Square Capital Management and David Einhorn, Greenlight Capital Management: 

18 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 10, 2008 at 11:36 AM, abitare (30.03) wrote:


This would be a good opportunity to point out the sucess of CAPS. Look at Floridabuilder and his sucess in CAPS. There is a reason for it. He is a guru based on his builder knowledge, the Stats support it, he is candid, knowledgeable and honest. Look at his RECs!

gtinvestor, dwot, demon, TMFEldrehad, statsgeek, many of the TMFs - etc.... A great place to find some honest accessments. 

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#2) On May 10, 2008 at 1:29 PM, FleaBagger (27.44) wrote:

How could you forget Seth (TMFBent)? Also, I think it's gtrinvestor. I think it stands for "Gator." 

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#3) On May 10, 2008 at 2:24 PM, abitare (30.03) wrote:

I am sorry, Flea, actually, I could have put you there, Bent, Everydayinvertor, bridgeboy, lq, GS751, all my favorites, people, who reply, TMFSinchiruna, even Escrooge has some wisdom, there and plenty of others who help to keep this community engaged, entertained and educated.

Seriously, there are a lot of people to thank. Even people, who come out of no where with wisdom to add. mjdutmers - explained me out of my COW outperform.

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#4) On May 10, 2008 at 2:27 PM, eskatonic (28.58) wrote:

if you want to really see some good data on the fast money 'gurus' go back and analyze the 2007 march madness and look at one year performances.  for almost half the matchups the fast money pick underperformed the losing opponent over the next year.  the fast money 'winner', brka, came in 10th (or maybe 11th (I did this research a while ago and can't find where I put it) out of the 64 stocks for 1 year performance.   not that brka was a bad pick.  it gave around 20%, but still pretty mediocre performance from a bunch of experts.  brka is pretty much a gimme pick ... how many investors would tell you that brka is a bad place to put your money?  as a whole, the 64 stocks underperformed the s&p 500 over the next year.  remember 2007 had a pretty weak s&p 500 return of only 5.5% so these stocks were really dead money after inflation and taxes.


that being said, I watch fast money because macke is more fun than a scalded chimp. 

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#5) On May 10, 2008 at 2:49 PM, abitare (30.03) wrote:


Thanks for the reply. Good to hear from you. I really like Fast Money. I would consider taking the opposite side of most of their recommendations. To me it is like the late night infomercial telling you how to get rich from buying real estate, I am sure the infomercials product might have something in there package that is useful, but I am suspect. If they have a system that works so well, why would you sell it.

But FM does do a good review of the markets and the rumors. It is like ESPN's Sportcenter. But I find their recommendations and all CNBCs recommendations highly suspect.

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#6) On May 10, 2008 at 6:24 PM, joeykid13 wrote:


which one are you? A) GURU B) PAID LIAR C) FOOL D)  CHEERLEADER...and which one do you THINK that I am...LOL

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#7) On May 10, 2008 at 6:46 PM, abitare (30.03) wrote:

Take a look at Cramers 2000 picks:

The Winners of the New World - 02/29/00 - 09:42 AM EST

724 Solutions (SVNX:Nasdaq) = pink sheet

“724 Solutions Announces Closing of Arrangement SANTA BARBARA, CALIF., August 15 /CNW/ - 724 Solutions Inc. (TSX:SVN)(Pink Sheets:SVNX) today announced that 724 Holdings, Inc., an affiliated entity of Austin Ventures, has acquired all of the outstanding common shares of 724 Solutions not owned by Austin Ventures or John J. Sims, the Company's Chief Executive Officer, for US$3.34 per common share.”

Ariba (ARBA:Nasdaq)

$1016 to $11 today look at this chart:;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined\

Digital Island (ISLD:Nasdaq)

“Dali Acquisition Corp., announced today the completion of their tender offer for all of the issued and outstanding shares of common stock of Digital Island, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISLD) ("Digital Island"), which expired at 12:00 midnight, New York City time, on Monday, June 18, 2001.”

Exodus (EXDS:Nasdaq) Lessons From the Flight Out of Exodus
By James J. Cramer 09/25/2001 02:37 PM EDT

“Exodus (EXDS:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research) says it all, doesn't it? Let's get the sequence of events. Stock takes on lots of debt. Business goes sour. CEO says not to worry. Stock gets hit. CEO says not to worry. Stock gets hit again. CEO says company's coming back, represents a great opportunity at $1. Stock goes to $2 and CEO leaves. More assurances are made. Stock goes back to $1. More confidence expressed. Stock goes to 50 cents. Company floats prepackaged bankruptcy rumors. Stock gets cut in half.” (INSP:Nasdaq)

$1224 to $11.32 Great chart:;range=my;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

Inktomi (INKT:Nasdaq)

Yahoo buys Inktomi

by Rob Hughes posted on December 24, 2002 7:16 am

In a deal worth US$235 million, Yahoo (YHOO) announced that they will be purchasing Inktomi (INKT). Inktomi is well known for their search engine technology and caching technology. Different sources are listing the deal as worth $235 million or $265 million. The deal is a cash deal where Inktomi shareholders will be paid $1.65 per share of INKT stock when the deal closes. In response to the buyout, Inktomi stock rose over 40% to sit closer to the $1.65 per share price.

Mercury Interactive (MERQ:Nasdaq)

'MERQ' is no longer valid. It has changed to MERQ.PK.

Sonera (SNRA:Nasdaq),

2001: Mounting debt induces the company to sell their Deutsche Telekom AG (DT) shares; CEO Kaj-Erik Relander resigns, and Harri Koponen is appointed Sonera's new president and CEO; signs agreement with Nokia.

VeriSign (VRSN:Nasdaq)

$239 to 39 today – a real success story to survive.

Veritas Software (VRTS:Nasdaq)

Veritas Software (VRTS) is anticipated to be acquired by Symantec Corp. (SYMC). Under the terms of the agreement, VRTS shareholders will receive 1.1242 shares of SYMC. Currently the index has .893 shares of VRTS.

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#8) On May 10, 2008 at 7:19 PM, devoish (71.47) wrote:


Good post. One rec for you.

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#9) On May 10, 2008 at 7:39 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

Hey Aba, I love your post and the other answers. which one are you? A) GURU B) PAID LIAR C) FOOL D)  CHEERLEADER.  I have a E for you? The magician. You can see through the lies,and what not. I can't figure out how to say your name so because you always make things so clear for me,abracadabra its clear. All of you Caps Fools do. Thanks everyone for putting up with me.

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#10) On May 10, 2008 at 8:15 PM, abitare (30.03) wrote:


I would guess your name is joey, you are kid about 13?

You are young enough to evolve into any of the four. 

I would target Guru in your choosen field of expertise. 

You can let me use the summer home if you become a sucess. 



glad to have. You are digging out some good stuff.

Abitare is mere pawn in game of life.

I do not lie or cheerlead. The rest can be termined by my stats. Although I do admit I did not get the 5 points rule early on, and wasted away my accuracy.

The day I or anyone calls himself a guru, take the opposite side of his positions. 

Pride is a Sin:  

Prov 11:2 When pride cometh, then cometh shame: but with the lowly is wisdom.

Prov 6:16-17 These six things doth the LORD hate: yea, seven are an abomination unto him: A proud look, a lying tongue, and hands that shed innocent blood, Report this comment
#11) On May 10, 2008 at 9:06 PM, lquadland10 (< 20) wrote:

I ask the good Lord and then follow where he leads me. and hands that shed innocent blood, I Forgive them so the lord may do his will here on earth. Sorry this is so long. Read the links, it scares me but  then I remember yea though the valley of the shadow. 1776?  European Union
Creating a Transatlantic Common Market By: Dennis Behreandt
February 7, 2008 » Email this page | printer friendly version digg_url = ''; digg_bgcolor = '#fff'; digg_skin = 'compact';

Practically everyone has heard of the efforts made by the Bush administration to advance the integration of the United States with Canada and Mexico in what many have called a North American Union. This magazine has distributed nearly 1 million copies of a special issue on the subject, CNN’s Lou Dobbs frequently discusses the issue on his nightly news program, and presidential candidate Ron Paul has even discussed the NAU during some of the Republican debates.

The NAU gets all the press, but for internationalists seeking a more integrated world, it is not the only game in town. Very quietly, behind the scenes, a little known NGO has been working to advance plans to merge the United States with Europe. No one has heard of the work of this group, the Transatlantic Policy Network (TPN), because it has never been covered by the mainstream media. That is a particularly interesting fact, given that TPN’s supporters and collaborators include many powerful and well-known corporations, think tanks and legislators on both sides of the Atlantic. That they are cooperating in an effort to merge the U.S. and the EU would seem to be at least marginally newsworthy.

Even though the mainstream media can’t be bothered to report on real news in the midst of its “all celebrity, all the time” coverage, the American people might be interested to learn that TPN’s plans are not just talk. Working carefully, if quietly, since the early 1990s, the organization has moved quickly to gain the agreement of leaders on both sides of the ocean that further integration is necessary and desirable. Now, the organization is much closer to achieving its goals than anyone would suspect.


Merger Ahead
In February 2007, TPN published its white paper entitled, Completing the Transatlantic Market. In that paper, the organization summarized its goals. The executive summary states:

It is time for a complementary, top down approach to transatlantic cooperation through a joint commitment by the European Union and the United States to a roadmap for achieving a Transatlantic Market by 2015 and creation of an overarching framework for dialogue and action to achieve that goal.

The emphasis placed on “top down” is not insignificant. As typically used by NGOs, that terminology usually implies that executive level leaders will impose their desires on the citizens of a nation, not the other way around as envisioned, for instance, by America’s Founders.

That aside, is the plan, as described by the TPN white paper, really anything to worry about? After all, isn’t a common “Transatlantic Market” just a matter of economics and trade policy that will have little or no effect on the sovereignty and independence of nations?

The experience of Europe over the last 60 years demonstrates that the creation of a common market is only a first step toward more thorough integration. The European Union itself started life as the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC), an intergovernmental organization formed in the aftermath of World War II ostensibly to give a boost to the coal and steel industries in European nations ravaged by war.

But the ECSC was only meant to be a first step to further economic integration. In 1957 it was superseded by the European Economic Community (EEC) that was created by the Treaty of Rome. The EEC was the immediate predecessor of today’s European Union.

The progression from common market to political union as it occurred in Europe should not be mistaken for a singular and unusual event. It is, in fact, the process through which other international political mergers are expected to occur. The process was explained by University of Nevada professor of economics Glen Atkinson. In a paper published in the Social Science Journal entitled “Regional Integration in the Emerging Global Economy,” Professor Atkinson explained:

The lowest level of integration is a free trade area that involves only the removal of tariffs and quotas among the parties. If a common external tariff is added, then a customs union has been created. The next level, or a common market, requires free movement of people and capital as well as goods and services. It is this stage where institutional development becomes critical. The stage of economic union requires a high degree of coordination or even unification of policies. This sets the foundation for political union.

If TPN succeeds in catalyzing the existence of a transatlantic common market by 2015 as planned, that will be only one short step removed from actual political integration.


Integration Milestones
On its Website, TPN proudly lists some of its "achievements" in building the framework for a common market. “In a short space of time,” the organization says, it has “built a credible ‘network of networks’ linking the political, business and academic communities. It confirmed its value to members by helping to shape key developments in the EU-US partnership during the 1990s.”

According to the organization, some of its achievements include:

Creating the “New Transatlantic Agenda” in December 1995, described by TPN as “a blueprint for joint action by the US and the European Union across all of the most important political, economic, security and social aspects their relationship.”Launching the “Transatlantic Business Dialogue” also in 1995 “with a specific objective to remove the trade and investment obstacles to the creation of a real transatlantic marketplace.Creating the “Transatlantic Economic Partnership (TEP)” at the London EU-US Summit in May 1998. According to the organization, “TEP identified a series of elements for an initiative to intensify and extend multilateral and bilateral cooperation and common actions in the field of trade and investment, including formal trade negotiations and trust enhancing measures.”

These efforts have garnered significant transoceanic support, both from political and business leaders, for TPN’s plan. In 2004 and again in 2005, the EU parliament passed resolutions “in which the concept of completing the transatlantic market by 2015 is supported.” TPN notes with apparent satisfaction that the U.S. Congress has done likewise and points out that the “House of Representatives has also passed a resolution endorsing the concept of a ‘Transatlantic Partnership Agreement’ between the EU and the US.”

For those keeping track of Congressional malfeasance, this legislation, H. Res. 390, was introduced in the House by Nebraska Republican Doug Bereuter on October 2, 2003. It passed the House little more than a month later on November 5. The resolution found that the “United States and the European community are aware of their shared responsibility, not only to further transatlantic security, but to address other common interests such as environmental protection, poverty reduction, combatting international crime and promoting human rights, and to work together to meet those transnational challenges which affect the well-being of all.”

Moreover, it found that because of the “threats posed by global terrorism, terrorist states, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, and the nexus of the three, the partnership should be expanded progressively from a transatlantic community of values to an effective transatlantic community of action by developing a collaborative strategy and action plan for dealing with those challenges of mutual interest and concern.” (emphasis added.)


Support Network
The passage of the Bereuter resolution in the House in 2003 is a strong indication that the TPN plan has the widespread support of influential members of Congress. It is not necessary to look far to find just how many influential legislators have backed the transatlantic integration plan.

One such backer was the late Republican Congressman Henry Hyde, the powerful and influential former chairman of both the House Judiciary and International Relations Committees.

In its “Partnership Report” of June 2004, TPN notes that Hyde spoke in favor of creating an EU-US common market during a speech in Rome on June 29, 2003. According to the TPN report, Hyde “stressed the need for a ‘Transatlantic Economic Framework with the free movement of goods, services and investments….” That, as economist Glen Atkinson pointed out, is the very definition of a common market.

But Hyde wasn’t finished. He returned to this in a speech given in Chicago in September of 2003. In that speech, TPN points out, Hyde argued that America’s “economic relationship with Europe receives too little attention” and that the U.S. should be looking more closely at “the benefits to be obtained from closer cooperation across the Atlantic.” Accordingly, TPN notes, “Hyde called for the establishment of ‘a true Atlantic Marketplace’ and urged the EU and the US to ‘convene a high-level meeting of our respective regulatory policy-makers and regulatory bodies to try to establish common objectives in regulation and devise a process of formulating complementary regulations.” To put this in proper perspective, it should be noted that harmonization of law and regulation is a necessary prerequisite that must be accomplished before any economic or political integration of nations can occur. Finally, in 2004, Hyde, along with Congresswoman Jo Ann Davis and Minister of the European Parliament (MEP) Jim Nicholson, who was serving as Chairman of the European Parliamentary Delegation to the US, signed a joint statement “calling for a barrier-free transatlantic market by 2015,” thereby officially endorsing the plan preferred by TPN.

There are many other important legislators on both sides of the Atlantic that continue to back the integration plan, and some of them actually serve as leaders within TPN itself. The most prominent of these is Republican Senator Robert Bennett of Utah. Bennett is chairman of the TPN Management Committee, one of the top leadership positions at TPN, according to the organization’s Website. The Honorary U.S. President of TPN is Robert S. Strauss, a key Carter administration official and former ambassador to the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation. Joining Strauss and Bennett in TPN leadership positions are:

Former Congressman Jim Kolbe (R-AZ) — now Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the US, another group promoting U.S.-EU integration;Democratic Congressman Ron Kind of Wisconsin who has been an active supporter in Congress of regional free trade agreements;Former Congressman Mike Oxley (R-Ohio), infamous co-author of the notorious Sarbanes-Oxley Act that, as described by Congressman Ron Paul, unconstitutionally gave “the federal government authority to regulate the accounting standards of private corporations” in the wake of the Enron and other financial scandals of the early part of the decade.

In addition to these U.S. legislators serving in leadership positions with TPN, there are many others who are members of TPN’s “U.S. Congressional Group.” These include six Senators — the aforementioned Senator Bennett of Utah, Thad Cochran (R-Mississippi), Chuck Hagel (R-Nebraska), Barbara Mikulski (D-Maryland), Pat Roberts (R-Kansas), Gordon Smith (R-Oregon) – and 49 Representatives. Some of the noteworthy members of the latter cohort include former chairman of the House Judiciary Committee F. James Sensenbrenner (R-Wisconsin), current Chairman of the House Foreign Relations Committee Tom Lantos (D-California), Chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee John Dingell (D-Michigan), and current House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio). It seems that selling out U.S. sovereignty is a very popular and bi-partisan pastime.


The Usual Suspects
Among businesses and think tanks one finds the usual crowd of internationalists heading up the lists of those supporting the TPN program of transatlantic integration. European and American business members include such influential companies as Boeing, BASF, Microsoft, Coca Cola, IBM, Time Warner, Walt Disney, Walmart, Xerox, Merck, Nestle, UPS and a host of others. The inclusion of media titans Time Warner (owner of CNN) and Disney (owner of ABC News) perhaps explains in part the media blackout on the coverage of TPN’s activities.

Among think tanks, the TPN membership list is a who’s who of internationalism-promoting groups. Included on the list is the granddaddy of them all, the Council on Foreign Relations. Joining the CFR is the Atlantic Council of the United States which seeks a “healthy transatlantic relationship” as “an essential prerequisite for a stronger international system.” Other organizations serving as TPN members include:

The Brookings InstitutionThe Carnegie Endowment for International PeaceThe Chamber of Commerce of the United StatesThe German Marshall Fund of the U.S.The Centre for European Policy StudiesThe European Roundtable of IndustrialistsInstitut Francais des Relations Internationales

All of these and several other groups have lent their support to the TPN goal of creating a Transatlantic Market by 2015. As umbrella organization TPN points out, this market is to be created by executive decree from the top down, and that is exactly what has been happening. Meanwhile, the citizens who are being herded into this arrangement have no say in the matter. In fact, they are being kept in the dark.

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#12) On May 10, 2008 at 11:02 PM, abitare (30.03) wrote:

FYI - dwot blog has David Einhorn's speech from Grant's Spring Investment Conference a month ago.

Special thanks to GS751

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#13) On May 11, 2008 at 4:02 PM, FourthAxis (< 20) wrote:

I love that the shills believe their own BS so much....I bet you could hook them up to a lie detector and they'd pass. 

It's too bad this character can't understand the difference between money and credit.  If you use credit to increase efficiency  and accumulate assets, then awesome!  Net gain.  If you use Chinese credit to buy Chinese trinkets that depreciate and let the Chinese keep the profits...well...uh....I guess we'll see.

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#14) On May 12, 2008 at 12:31 AM, Tastylunch (28.70) wrote:

That's the beauty of the CAPS blogging community, having ratings gives people an extra set of data to verify the "source" of info. It also discourages people from making half-@$$ed comments  or picks as people are held in esteem by the community largely relative to their ranking.

I know my pitches get a lot more recs when I'm doing well.

It's nice to see, I've liked CAPS a lot more than I would have thought. Thera are not many quality places around where people's opinions are weighed by their rationale and their performance. I give a lot more weight to what you or other players I respect (whether they be highly rated like Makeitseven and Dwot or low like PDTbiotech) say than say Cramer or other tv personalities.

Accountability, what a novel concept :-) 

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#15) On May 12, 2008 at 3:21 PM, abitare (30.03) wrote:


Concur. Plenty of people make a living shilling BS. Being able to catch it or call them on it is a valuable tallent.


Yep, no doubt. I trust dwot and others with good track records far more then most talking heads on tv. 

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#16) On May 12, 2008 at 5:19 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

abit- great post. I missed it when I came in today. The biggest benefit of caps is that you get the entire scoop, both sides of the debates and all the intricacies are covered by the players. Caps players would be a tough crowd to play BS with (cardgame).

"I guess it's good if you are an investor in gold/silver/oil."

I love the vid. 

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#17) On May 13, 2008 at 10:05 PM, EMG114 (< 20) wrote:

This is good post. I agree with you that most things that goes CNBC is cheerleading. But having a little more insight from them sometimes,either for good or bad, it's good also as you stated above. Keep the good posts...

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#18) On May 14, 2008 at 4:54 AM, abitare (30.03) wrote:


Caps players would be a tough crowd to play BS with (cardgame).

No doubt. There is a tallent pool here.


ty, wilco

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