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mikecart1 (74.84)

Financial Situation Prediction to Come True by End of 2009



July 20, 2009 – Comments (2) | RELATED TICKERS: BAC , FAZ , C

This is more for myself than anyone else but I want to see how good (or bad) I am going to call the next 5 months when it comes to financial markets.  Since BAC has been able to rely on their investment banking a lot more like other big name banks to boost or (cook) their numbers and maintain or keep their shares soaring, I have more than enough to make an educated prediction.

1. First prediction, the financial sector of the market is not as good as it seems and will crash to some serious degree by December 31, 2009. 

2. The increase in foreclosures and the increase in bad credit will cause banks and credit card companies to lose more and more money to the point where they can't hide it with their success outside of consumer banking.

3. The hedge ETF's like FAZ will rise again to $60+ a share sometime between now and December 31, 2009.

4. And last but not least, the stock market will drop in the 7000's before December 31, 2009.


These are just predictions and I don't need a bunch of statistics to make picks.  It is what it is and I have gone by ear, interpretation, and logic for my entire investing career and have done very well.  Let's see what happens!


2 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 20, 2009 at 4:14 PM, davejh23 (< 20) wrote:

I don't follow FAZ, but I would bet on 1 & 2. 

I don't know about 4.  I believe that such a drop would certainly be warranted, but the markets aren't behaving rationally.  We may need shockingly disappointing earnings reports from the financials for Q3 to see this play out...or unemployment around 10.5% before year's end...or major swineflu outbreaks in the fall...  There's probably a decent chance we'll see any of these...or all of them.

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#2) On July 20, 2009 at 4:54 PM, mikecart1 (74.84) wrote:

Well they are very broad but straight forward.  I like to make predictions that the everyday investor can understand and either agree or disagree.  I can read all the statistics and statements and interpret them all (2nd year MBA student), but I find that just going by instinct, logic, and listening to what people are saying in the street as more accurate.

Like when you see on yahoo or msnbc, or any news how "although xyz financial stock is seeing increases in shares, the job market is weakening, and foreclosures are increasing... etc...", I don't need to read or hear that.  I see that everyday when I drive around or go to work.  People failing to pay off their debt.  People not even caring anymore and their plan B is actually to go on food stamps and give a big 'SCREW YOU' government.  People I see at Costco that gets more and more crowded along with Wal-Mart.  People I see saving more and more money and going out less and less. 

We don't need statistics to predict these things.  Overall, I say the financial sector can keep pushing the dirt under the rug.  Heck, they can do it this entire year.  All I know is that some time (A FUTURE TIME), in the future, that I can't predict and won't act like I can predict to the day, week, month, the dirt will start leaking out and sooner or later you will have it all revealed for everyone to see.

It's not if, but when.  Because from what I have seen, things are not looking good at all.

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