Yves has a piece suggesting the commodity price explosion is due to excessive liquidity in the financial system due to low interest rates. The article suggest that this is a leading indicator of inflation.
One of the things that I've been saying is that if we do not see deflation, all of our costs catch up to what has basicially happened in the commodities. Prices have typically been up about 500% in commodities and some have spiked up in the range of 1000%.
I think the grossly increased money supply is already out there and prices increases to reflect the amount of supply out there has not completed working through the economy and either it contracts, or we're going to feel nostalgia for $4/gal gas.