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Financially My Dear I Don't Give a XLF

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16

January 05, 2010 – Comments (10) | RELATED TICKERS: XLF

LOL! Holy Bad Puns Batman! Even I admit that was too far of a twist on the classic quote. But bad puns are about the only thing rattling around in binv's brain, so cut me some slack! :)

On Dec 20, I wrote this post: Do You Smell Something?

I stand by all of the big picture rhetoric that I was spewing:

I am very vocally bearish on financials for the long term. I think they are the cancer of the US economy. Monetary policy over the last 20 years have allowed for, encouraged in fact, the economy to become financially top heavy. I could go on a rant (and have many times in the past regarding financials) but I will not. I am very long term bearish, and I will leave it at that for the moment.

Here is my P2 count for financials. I think P2 is done for the sector. There is a possibility that the action the last 2 months was an X wave and now working on Z of P2. If this is the case, then I don't think it will make substantially higher highs. In fact I would expect it to make what amounts to a double top.


But I also added this tidbit and this chart:

10 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 05, 2010 at 7:09 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

But I also added this tidbit and this chart:

But there is a difference in being long term bearish and recognizing the possibility for a near term upside move. So the way I am playing this: I am waiting for the move within silly season to run its course and will be establishing a long term short position in XLF probably in early January. This will be a "short it and forget it" type position.



So I would like to check in to see how the short term played out. Here is the count today:



Right on track. I had the termination of the Wave at the end of the year, but 1 week off during silly season isn't too bad.

The move is looking nearly complete. I think we will have a little bit of consolidation and then one more spike up to about 15.10 - 15.20.

That is the area where I will be putting some long term money down on some XLF shorts. And I will probably also play FAZ for a swing trade (2x and 3x vehicles are *never* investments. Making early calls like I have with Caps points and letting them run is one thing, but never with real money)

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#2) On January 05, 2010 at 7:18 PM, topsecret09 (44.31) wrote:

binve "I stand by all of the big picture rhetoric that I was spewing":
"I am very vocally bearish on financials for the long term. I think they are the cancer of the US economy."    I will stand right next to you....  I am not buying anything that the MEDIA Is selling.........   TS

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#3) On January 05, 2010 at 7:19 PM, Option1307 (30.12) wrote:

Ha ha ha, love the title!

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#4) On January 05, 2010 at 8:15 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

topsecret09, Thanks man, us bears are an endangered species now and have to stick together :)

Option1307, LOL! Thanks :)..

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#5) On January 05, 2010 at 10:36 PM, streetflame (30.14) wrote:

From a purely fundamental perspective, I agree that financials are overpriced relative to the rest of the market and to reasonable valuation.  But there is lots of variation within the sector. Personally I think banking < real estate < capital markets <<<<<< insurance.  I have green thumbs on lots of insurance companies, which despite strong rebounds in earnings have mostly gone nowhere over the last few months.

binve, if you ever have a chance I'd like to hear your thoughts on financial subsectors.  In particular any technical differences you see between KBE, KCE, KIE, and IYR for example.

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#6) On January 06, 2010 at 1:23 AM, Tastylunch (29.40) wrote:

They just won't die!

 It's almost like they are zombies........

OOOoooweeooooo 

+1 to what streetflame said.

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#7) On January 06, 2010 at 10:17 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

streetflame, Hey streetflame! I took your request to heart and made a new post: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=322384. Let me know what you think!

Tastylunch, ZOMBIES!!!!.

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#8) On January 06, 2010 at 10:35 AM, outoffocus (23.49) wrote:

us bears are an endangered species now and have to stick together :)

Rawr.

Speaking of bears, seems like my rating is just bearly above yours. See you're not the only one with bad puns.

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#9) On January 06, 2010 at 10:57 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

outoffocus,

Speaking of bears, seems like my rating is just bearly above yours. See you're not the only one with bad puns

LOL! Bad punners (and bears) of the world, unite!!

or to steal one of my friends jokes

Bad spellers of the world, untie!!

... :)..

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#10) On January 06, 2010 at 11:06 AM, outoffocus (23.49) wrote:

LOL! Bad punners (and bears) of the world, unite!!

or to steal one of my friends jokes

Bad spellers of the world, untie!!

Bad Punners of the world, you night!! HAHAHA. I got a ton of em.

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