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Flopflation is the name of the game, folks, forget stagflation

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December 29, 2010 – Comments (33)

I frequently see, for a year and a half now, worries of stagflation.  Stagnant real economic growth combined with high inflation.  This vile fate is to befall us due to the printing of heinous quantities of money by Ben Bernanke and the federal reserve.  All this extra money will result in huge inflation which, in fact, is the goal as inflation is the only apparent cure to the civilized worlds debt issues. 

I frequently see, for two years now, worries of deflation.  Debt-deflation to be exact.  It works like this:  deleveraging (the paying down of debt) results in, quite literally, a reduction of the money supply.  The worlds mood, what with recession and financial panic and all, has changed and people now want a low or at least managable amount of debt.  Therefore they are paying down credit cards (fact), and other forms of debt (also fact).  New construction has plummeted and that is a key form of increasing the money supply in a fractional-reserve banking system.  And foreclosures are soaring, taking money out of the system.  Further, governments are implementing austerity measures, are unable to spend as much as in the past, and trying to pay down debt.  All this deleveraging is working to reduce the money supply and the fed just won't be able to print fast enough to overcome it.  

Both theories are sensible enough and very good arguments have been made by both camps, and certainly my brief commentary above does not do justice to either argument.  Gold - without a doubt the investment of the hour, the tower of power, the soup of the day, the thing everybody loves, the trend, the tech stock in 1997 of today - of course, is said by its beleivers to work gloriously whether we have inflation or deflation.  It is, as has been observed by others, simply acting like a panic-barometer, a measure of discontent, and apparently any form of 'flation panics people and makes them feel discontent.

The inflation camp (currently winning bigtime) says to buy commodities.  And lordie have commodities had quite a run here...  I couldn't say that the inflationistas necessarily really like stocks, except commodity related stocks, but perhaps they don't hate them.

The deflation camp (losing badly for the moment, but gloriously shining round about june of this year) says to hold debt, bonds, cash.  They hate stocks and commodities. 

Well here's my theory, let it be known that I have not read such a thing anywhere else before posting it here, and I'll start with why I think others have their theories and bits of what I think of them.  

Ithink the inflationistas and the stagflation camp are pretty much just looking backwards.  We had considerable inflation, and to no small extent, frankly, stagflation (excepting the housing bubble, we didn't have much economic growth in the '0x's) for the last 8-10 years.  Pil, gold, etc have all surged, and economic growth has been weak.  And, memories of stagflation from the tail end of the last commodity inflation cycle seem to ring in peoples minds, and so the inflationistas are essentially predicting a continuation of the trend (high inflation, starting/mostly in comomdities).  What has been good lately?  Thats whats going to be good in the future, and I think that the "zimbabwe/bernanke is printing" stuff is more justification for the belief that the trend will continue than it is deep logic.  

Why do Ithink that?  Because the deflationist case is probably more logical.  Certainly the money supply isn't expanding radically, after all.  And there is ALOT of deleveraging to go.  Frankly, I support QE and QE2 and the basic keynesian mojo.  Imperfect, sure, but whats perfect here?  But thats a seperate debate...

And here is my thought for the next year, and perhaps the next several years...

We will continue to see combat between the inflationistas and the deflationoids.   And no side will clearly win for some time to come.  We had almost a capitulationto the inflationist camp in 2008, followed by a massive deflationary shock.  We had a full year of inflationists winning from the march 09 bottoms to the april 2010 tops, following by a frightful (remember, folks, early summer 2010 was a terrifying time, even though people have forgotten that already) period of deflationists appearing to win.  And now we are back into the inflation-is-inevitable mentality, sparked by qe2.  

See...  here is why the markets will continue to slosh back and forth between the two:

1.  Deflation has some very real tailwinds.  Including

a)  the NEED and INEVITABILITY of continued deleveraging.  Europes brain-dead, pie-in-the-sky liberal dreamers must pay for their sins, foreclosures have not ended, the housing market isn't likely to boom anytime soon, to some extent a more realistic attitude towards debt is probably going to semi-permanently (until the next time) set in. 

b)  Beyond that, and this is a HUGE factor, China is probably a preposterous bubble, and they are supplying a great deal of real demand for commodities and MUCH MROE IMPORTANTLY, that demand is supplying justification for speculators and "investors" to buy commodities left and right, create etf's, sell gold in vending machines, and generally create the universal knowledge that commodities can't lose.  If China blew up, those speculators would run for the exits like fans at a Violent Femmes concert if the DEA showed up en masse and...

c)  Commodity prices are NOT,in my vew, being supported by supply and demand but rather are being supported by speculation and "investment".  Its people buying them in the view that they will go up that are making them go up.  They are the ultimate momo trade, and if the momo comes off it'll get ugly quick.  Just need a momo-killing catalyst...  

d)  the inflation trade runs up commod prices, which eventually will impair economic growth, which will lead to increased power for the forces of deflation

e)  canada and australia and maybe more still have real estate situations that may end in pain

And all of this is set against the case for inflation which will, ultimately, in the end, prevail, which is

a)  in the end the central banks will get their way and that means inflation, because its inflation that will ultimately help mitigate the debt issue...  which is for the greater good, btw, as I have opined int he past. 

b)  the general tailwind for inflation that is global population and economic growth combined with finite resources

 

And so, to conclude, I offer you all the concept of "flopflation", where the world alternates between deflationary scares and inflationary panics for a time, and that is how I see the rest of this secular bear market playing out. 

Buy the deflationary panics, Prechter et al won't be ultimately right.  But sell super low VIX / high sentiment /inflationist victorydance rallies as they stall out.  And remember, commodity inflation cycles (like the REALLY BIG ONE we have just seen, that is already veyr long in age) DON'T LAST FOREVER, and are generally followed by long periods of commodity price plateaus, equity bull markets, and extended real economic growth.  We aren't just beginning to see commodity price inflation, folks, we've already seen it. Alot of it. 

But also don't bet on the Prechteresque predictions of $10 oil and dow 1500, thats just silly.  And the central banks will always intervene AS THEY SHOULD before we got that kind of mess.  

And so the stage is set for flopping, all involving 'flation.  Flopflation, if you please.  The forces of delfation set in the ring against the momo trade (long term momo trade, the last decade) and the central banks.  

But remember...  we are still 20% below where the S&P was TEN YEARS AGO, so its not like it'd be ridiculous to see the market march significantly higher than it is today before this secular bear comes to and end, and in fact I would expect nothing less.  But I also expect prices meaningfully lower than today at least once before the secular bear ends, and I expect one more cyclic-bear-20%-drop incident before the enxt ssecular bull.  

And, frankly, in view of my expectation of flopflation and all of this, I suggest that simply buying the big dips will be the best course of action for the next couple of years.  When adip is fresh, the best bargains exist.  If we crash to 1250 from 1500, believe me, we will have better bargains than we have now after rallying extensively to 1250.  This is because some sectors will crash more than others and represent deep value, where long rallies like this tend to flush out the deep values one way or another.  

Thus it was predicted, may I be flogged if I am grossly wrong.    I, for one, do not plan on aggressively shorting any rips.  Just raising cash and taking hedges to prepare to buy the expected dips when they materialize. 

And shorting, via an extensively calculate dand extremely shiny, numerous ETF combinations which must, in combination, fall in price as a "background strategy".  

thank you, that is all

33 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 29, 2010 at 3:20 AM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

it took ...  damn near 2 years between deflation panics...  sep 08 to may 10.  whats that?  20 months?

20 months from may 10 is what?  early 2012?  

I don't have any idea when to expect the next episode in this flopflation saga, but I do know that I am going to buy the ever living shyte out of that dip when it comes.  And I'm reasonably confident it will be worth waiting for...

A few corrections, scary ones, along the way, but S&P 1400 and then the next real panic, sending us to 1100, deflation on the airways?  Hugh Hendry cocking off?  

Buy the big dips folks, the world isn't going to end.  But don't rush in to buy them, wait for sentiment to get real ugly.  Wait for ...  Bernanke and his alternately nationed counterparts to do their dirty.  

Buy QE3, buy Euro QE, buy Japan printing themselves silly and finally getting the inflation they have needed for 20 years.  But its still a secular bear, remember that.

And be careful with this commodity love-fest.  Its not supported by fundamentals and at some point, whether higher thanhere or at these levels, people are going to get filleted on that trade, like a bunch of walleye freshly caught by a pack of drunken fishermen who reek of cigarette smoke on a lazy summer day in minnesota.  

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#2) On December 29, 2010 at 9:24 AM, cthomas1017 (77.02) wrote:

Gotta give you credit for a well thought out post.  That said, I tend to think a little differently.  A central question that I have is whether the commodity price increases is due to real pull or speculation.  If speculation, then your premise is right on.  

At the same time, Mr. Bernake has telegraphed his intent to print like Zimbabwe to prevent deflation.  I agree that we are likely to experience wild swings, but that's largely because of the movement of assets/equities/capital from one hot move to another.  That is wildly speculative and will explain the moves rather than legitimate inflation/deflation.

In ten years or so, we'll look back and be able to see with such clarity what seems so murky now.  May we live in interesting times! 

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#3) On December 29, 2010 at 10:12 AM, whereaminow (42.76) wrote:

This is a very interesting post. One point of protest would be to make you define deflation. You seem content to consider deflationary shock as interchangeable with deflation. I think that's confusing and misleading. Deflationary shock is a contradiction in terms, since deflation has to be persistent, and well, we all know that the word shock doesn't really jive with the word persistent.  

But in terms of "flopflation" (I really like that btw), this is not far from what economist Gary North has repeatedly warned of in his articles. The trick, he supposes, is to be on the right side of the ups and downs, but he isn't arrogant enough to believe this is easily done.

Another point of protest, albeit is slight one, is that the money supply has actually increased. Of course, the monetary base was dramatically increased, but contrary to the Keynesian and MMT predictions, M1 and M2 have increased as well.  The latest I have is M1 is up 7.7% yoy as of 12/6/10.  M2 is up 3.4% yoy as of 11/29/10.  

And of course this doesn't tell the whole story, since 2/3rds of all $ are held overseas. Much of the growth in the money supply is being exported (and that falls in nicely with global rising commodity prices.)

So I can't see any way that we suffer persistent falling prices in the current environment.

(Btw, I love stocks. The problem comes in when you try to sell. Take for example a stock that gains 15%, but the dollar was devalued by 10%. Your real gain is a paltry 5%.  Next you consider that you are taxed as if you made a 15% gain.  Suddenly, your real gain is a pittance.  Let's say you gain less than the dollar was devalued. You actually lost wealth, and then get taxed as if you gained. Seems silly, doesn't it?  But of course, the same can be said for gold... and just about anything. Such is life.)

David in Qatar 

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#4) On December 29, 2010 at 10:55 AM, ContraryDude (36.20) wrote:

I can't wait until the talking heads on CNBC start talking about "flopflation"!  Not sure I agree with your premise either, but I like the term and it is somehwat consistent with my thinking in the sense that at least for the forseeable future, it's gonna be a stock-picker's market.

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#5) On December 29, 2010 at 11:19 AM, tekennedy (71.14) wrote:

Good premise and a good term.  It speaks to your point that we currently have inflation and deflation simultaneously.  Most commodities are rising in price while housing has went down.  This makes sense in some ways as it'll take time for the massive amounts of printed money to get to different parts of the economy. 

+1 rec.

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#6) On December 29, 2010 at 11:20 AM, rofgile (99.33) wrote:

Checklist34:

   Nice blog.   We now have three different inflation measurements (Government, Google and MIT) all agreeing quite closely on the current state.  Read this article - "Economists' programs are beating the US at tracking inflation"

---

 Two different (Govt and BPP) measuring styles are all finding low price inflation (below 2%).  The Google measurement actually found that deflation occurred several times over the recent times.  

 A choice quote: "Moreover, and somewhat remarkably, the Google and Billion Prices Project indices actually seem to confirm the accuracy of the old-fashioned CPI, tracking it closely rather than showing it to be off-base."

---

 Its amusing to me that people have so much mistrust of the US government economic statistics (within the US) and are so pessimistic as a whole about the US economy and world (within the US). 

 -Rof 

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#7) On December 29, 2010 at 12:01 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.94) wrote:

Great post, checklist.  I largely agree with you on this.

The extreme deflationists and the hyperinflationists have both created great opportunities in the market.  So many commodities now are extremely overpriced relative to practical (as opposed to investment) demand. Likewise, so many real estate and bank stocks are beaten down based on deflationary fears. 

My strategy right now is to short the hyperinflationists' love interests (gold miners, silver miners, copper miners, Chinese demand, etc.) and go long the deflationists' worst nightmares (small commercial banks, real estate, homebuilders, etc.).  For good measure, I own a chunk of energy stocks, as well, which have strangely been regarded with neutrality by the market. 

I think we're finally about to reach a light recovery, because higher interest rates will force cash off the sidelines and stimulate capital investment.  I'd still be afraid of some of the junk happening in Europe and emerging markets (particularly China), but I'm cautiously optimistic right now.

 

David quotes M1 money supply figures, but they are almost completely meaningless in terms of overall money supply.  M1 has decreased during periods of high inflation and increased during periods of low inflation.  There's not a great positive correlation between M1 and inflation (if anything, it might have a negative correlation).  In fact, the use of credit cards and various other non-cash instruments caused M1 to experience a continued decline for awhile, even during the inflationary '70s.

The rise of M1 over the past two years says more about fear than anything.  People have started holding more cash and saving more, in fear of falling prices.  In this sense, rising M1 is in some ways, more associated with a deflationary pull.  Likewise, people want to hold hard assets during an inflationary environment and hence less cash; so inflation should be more associated with lower M1. 

M2 and M3 are more important statistics.  The Fed eliminated M3, which was a bad decision in my view. M3 has been the best predictor of bubbles and busts and if Greenspan & Co had paid more attention to it in the '00s, they might have started raising rates more quickly, thereby, cooling off the bubble. 

M3 has likewise predicted the severity of the contraction. Since M3 isn't available from the Fed any more, you have to use an alternative site to get it, such as Shadow Stats. However, the M3 figures I saw mid-year suggested severe contraction in money supply:

Mid-year, M3 was contracting at around 6% annually, which is fairly dramatic. It has since improved so that it's closer to -2%, which might be a good sign. If I saw M3 improve to something like 0% to +4%, I would view this as evidence that we might finally be ready for a modest recovery in the real economy, with unemployment finally started to decrease a bit.  Unemployment is the biggest issue, in my view.  It really hasn't changed much in two years.  Until people feel safer in employment, they are going to be reluncant to make large purchases. 

 

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#8) On December 29, 2010 at 12:21 PM, whereaminow (42.76) wrote:

@JHun,

I quoted M1 and M2, which are both up. 

Truth be told, I think all the M's have limited meaningfulness for this debate (since there is actually no such thing as a price level), so I'm not going to quibble over which M means more.

My main objection is with deflationist theory since they can't define their own term.  Deflation has to be persistent. It has to be felt across a broad spectrum of the economy, not just one sector. It has to be more significant than a 0.1% here or there.  Give me 2 consecutive quarters of -2% in the general price level and I'll scream deflation from the rooftops. It ain't happened. It ain't gonna happen. (And if it did happen, I'd be buying everything in sight, because if you think they crank the money machine now just watch what happens if we get real deflation.) 

If you have rising prices in some sectors and falling prices in others, and average is 0% change, you have stable prices.  Whether or not stable prices should be a goal is another bag of balls.

Very simply, there has been no deflation. There has been many pieces of the stagflation puzzle fall into place, however. Only consumer price levels are left to rise (if that really mattered, which it doesn't, because they should be falling in the first place in a market economy.)

So I don't think a person like myself that is predicting stagflation is looking backward, as checklist suggested. We haven't had the final shoe drop yet.  

David in Qatar 

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#9) On December 29, 2010 at 12:39 PM, Option1307 (29.90) wrote:

+1.

Great thoughts, thanks for sharing!

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#10) On December 29, 2010 at 2:22 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

cthomas, bernanke's stated goal is to assist the economy and prevent deflation by increasing the money supply via QE, QE2, and so forth.  He has stated that he does not desire massive inflation, but rather just some inflation.

when using bernanke's printing as a justification for the belief in massive inflation people must assume that he is either lying or incapable of getting it "just right".

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#11) On December 29, 2010 at 2:36 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

David,

     I am, for this post, content to interchange deflationary shock and deflation, apologies if my word choice is found to be less attractive than a 500 dollar nose job.  

     I do not think that deflation as you define it, a long period of pervasively falling prices, is a likely outcome.  

     I just think that the inflationist-momo-trade crowd will run commodities up and panic and scream gold forever and...  run into problems like this summer when the reality (which is that real world supply/demand dynamics don't nearly justify these prices in most things)  of the situation rears its head.  I think that china having a serious issue could cause a very significant deflationary shock, which would probably represent the best buying opportunity of the next 15 years.  

     When I commentd on money supply, I was referring to those elusive charts of M3, like Jake posted above.  

     I think the inflationists won't be easily dissuaded, and every rally will become a "zimbabwe ho!  commodities to the moon" love fest for a while.  

     And the eventual outcome of all of this will be that commodities, in ten years, aren't radically higher than they are now and the next great equity bull market is partly fueled by money changing sides.  And the next period of extended real economic growth is partly fueled by commodity stability.

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#12) On December 29, 2010 at 2:42 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

contrarydude, if flopflation makes cnbc, two things will happen

1.  some other guy will take all credit for it and

2.  i will buy drinks for every capster at the pub nearest CNBC studios

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#13) On December 29, 2010 at 2:46 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

kennedy, even in the capital markets this year we have had massive confusion and seen the markets price in deflation and inflation simultaneously.  like this summer when commods started going gangbusters even as the yield on the 10 year hit the low 2's

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#14) On December 29, 2010 at 2:52 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

rofgile, that is very interesting and comforting.  nice to see that kind of confirmation.

here in the real world, here's what I know:

gas prices are still way lower than 2008, but are creeping up

clothes are cheaper, I don't know about food prices.  cars are way cheaper, houses are cheaper.  I don't see signs of runaway inflation

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#15) On December 29, 2010 at 2:55 PM, ChrisGraley (30.25) wrote:

I really liked the blog, but I have to make a point that most of the people like myself talking about stagflation were early to the game. Most of us were in at 08 not March of 09.

That being said I've been expecting the same deflationary shock for the last couple months, followed by helicopter Ben and the money armada myself.

I've sold a lot of equities but kept my silver.

If silver drops below my cost average I'm planning on doubling up.

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#16) On December 29, 2010 at 3:03 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

jake, nice chart, where did you get it?

wasn't m3 already falling by late 2008 though, not rising at many percent per year?  can that be right?

the rise in M1 would also include the QE money, no?

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#17) On December 29, 2010 at 3:06 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

thanks option.  \

Chris, I was still a business owner in early 2008 and hadn't even, at that point in my life, heard of stagflation, so you may be right that my estimated timeframe of those predictions starting is off.

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#18) On December 29, 2010 at 3:15 PM, TheDumbMoney (42.99) wrote:

How about "fearflation" instead of "flopflation"?  So far, we haven't had actual deflation, so, I find myself shocked to actually agree with David in Q. on something.  And we really have not had inflation to any significant extent.  What we have had is massive commodities speculation, and significant stock swings both based, maybe, on unrealized fear that significant deflation or inflation is about to occur.  I think that's really what you mean here, that that will continue.  Or the flop is in people's flopping perceptions about which is coming.  I confess I didn't read too carefully.  Great post though, and Jakila's comment above is classic, and so true (in my opinion).  The missing element perhaps is the legislative/libertarian one; if the anti-Feds manage to curtail the Fed, either legallyor by bullying it in the court of public opinion, it's ability to combat a deleveraging-instigated future fall in M2 and M3 might be curtailed, which could lead to a true deflationary scenario.  Otherwise, I foresee mild inflation, as does, from one point of view at least, the bond market for 30 year U.S. treasuries, based on the spread between 30-year bonds and 30-year TIPS (at least the last time I looked).

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#19) On December 29, 2010 at 3:17 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

When you get bored by macroeconomics you might want to buy a few DSCOD shares (see this post). If you still have ATPG shares at least in part because of my "recommendation", please sell a few of those (if they are "in the green") and put a part of the profit into DSCOD, my official 2011 stock recommendation (and that of zzlangerhans, I guess).

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#20) On December 29, 2010 at 3:19 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

My "fund" has around 1% of the outstanding shares, hehe ...

I have 3800 in my portfolio.

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#21) On December 29, 2010 at 3:21 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

fearflation is pretty good. Flopflation... what I meant by it is that the market has big components championing both forms of 'flation, and has seen episodes of each side "winning" for a while, and each side has reasonable and logical reasons for their view, so I think we will continue to see a flop ...  between which side is winning for the moment.  

I agree that politicians impotizing the fed is one of the biggest risks that the world faces right now.  hopefully they fail

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#22) On December 29, 2010 at 3:23 PM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

hey porte, dscod, the most volatile stock in the world? 

ATPG is about 3% of my holdings right now, I refuse to sell any shares until 2011, but can do so jan 3rd.

I am 20% cash so I can buy some Discovery labs.  Wheres a link to a good thread on those guys?

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#23) On December 29, 2010 at 3:35 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

http://www.wsw.com/webcast/lz8/dsco/

http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/DSCOD/5416787/looks-like-im-the-second-one-t.aspx

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/dsco/490194

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#24) On December 29, 2010 at 3:39 PM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

the most volatile stock in the world

I recommend buying in tranches, but you should start with a first small buy today. Or tomorrow, hehe ...

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#25) On December 29, 2010 at 8:47 PM, rofgile (99.33) wrote:

DSCO(D) looks pretty interesting - I think I might join you guys in that one. 

They published an article in Pediatric Research 3 months ago comparing their treatment against animal derived surfactants.  Overall, it looks like a pretty ok treatment - they can safely deliver twice the volume of drug, resulting in a better distribution in the lung.  Reviews not supported by the company's funding also indicate that the new sythetic surfactants with peptide mimics have good efficacy compared to animal surfactants containing SP-B and SP-C (surfactant proteins).  Surfaxin (made by DSCOD) uses a peptide mimetic called sinapultide.  

  This seems a similar situation to what SiriusXM was in, where most people just think it'll go bankrupt, but if it doesn't it could be in a stable and healthy situation in the short term (and price could rise multi-fold).

 The one caveat I could see in the Pediatric paper was that the blood pressure in the Surfaxin treated animals rose higher to a significantly different amount compared to the animal derived surfactant treatment.  If that is deemed a worrying factor, I could see more trouble.  But the amount the blood pressure rose wasn't extremely higher (about 10 mmHg), which would seem safe to me.

 -Rof 

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#26) On December 30, 2010 at 4:26 AM, portefeuille (99.56) wrote:

They published an article in Pediatric Research 3 months ago comparing their treatment against animal derived surfactants.

Pulmonary distribution of lucinactant and poractant alfa and their peridosing hemodynamic effects in a preterm lamb model of respiratory distress syndrome.

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#27) On December 30, 2010 at 4:28 AM, FleaBagger (29.37) wrote:

As David implied, what you are predicting is very similar to the expectations of stagflationists, except that we think gold and silver will go higher than stocks, and stocks will not rise as much as consumer prices.

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#30) On December 30, 2010 at 3:51 PM, Option1307 (29.90) wrote:

Overall, it looks like a pretty ok treatment.

Just to clarify, there is pretty clear evidence that the drug works effectively, that's not the iussue facing DSCOD.

Rather, the question is if they can get there act together and satisfy the FDA in regards to drug stability etc.

All in all, this does sem like a very interesting play and I'm debating joining in on the fun!

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#31) On December 31, 2010 at 1:48 AM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

flea, if similar predictions are common from the stagflation camp, I guess I haven't seen them and would apologize if my post came across poorly.

In general, what I see from hyperinflationists and stagflationists is just predictions of inflation on a large scale due to money printing.  This may well be some kind of an endgame, but I am willing to agree with Hugh Hendry that to get widespread substantial money printing to occur...  as in enough printing to offset downward forces on the money supply and create huge inflation...  a deflationary shock would have to first occur.

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#32) On December 31, 2010 at 1:51 AM, checklist34 (99.73) wrote:

significant negative sentiment is building, kind of like march and april 2010.  the thoughts are implanted, ...  and brewing and stewing inside of minds.  Festering. 

But these thoughts are offset by the positive momentum and pleasure at seeing ones accounts at recent or all time highs.  

A catalyst, not forseen by me in nature or timing, will eventually come, and spark a third significant deflationary shock.  Huge correction or new cyclic bear in the markets, ... plunging commodity prices, panic, Prechter getting taken seriously, and all of that.

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