January 28, 2008
– Comments (6)
wicked right. And before the street... I, for one, am not surprised.
If I was in such a market I'd bew lowballing sellers like there's no tomorrow.
I'm thinking of doing that in my neighborhood. Trouble is that here, prices need to drop another 40% before mortgage payments get close to rent yields on the same properties, and no one wants to entertain offers like those.
Bent, you must live in Miami. :)
And yet, all the homebuilders are up big. HOV almost up 10%. What are these people seeing that I'm not?
I think Bent is in Virginia.
When an inane amount of a population is a government employee, the housing market goes nyt like that, but it stays nut a lot longer than in industrial areas, mostly because the govt never fires anyone, so economic conditions matters a lot less. See how Detroit has been affected by autos layoff, as opposed to Virignia's no-layoff.
Still, when everyone starts lowballing, sellers will get a clue and either sell their properties or try renting them. Either you'll get to buy a cheap house or you'll get to rent for cheaper.
People understand that lowballing a house down the street at 50% of what someone is asking could be a good idea right now, you get a house at a cheap price.
Look at the balance sheet of the builder's stocks vs their stock prices and you have the same picture on a much larger scale. By offering $10 for a Meritage homes share you are effectively offering $10 for houses and land the balance sheet claims is worth something like $30. Granted companies write off hundreds of millions on the balance sheet etc, the balance sheet claims could be totally out of whack.
People just can't seem to see that though, they don't understand why anyone would want to by housing stock, period, whatever the price... Isn't price usually is a key component in purchasing something?
Not saying housing is going to be the super-best investment in the world from here on out, but by all accounts a number of the housing stocks are certainly on 'sale' relative to their balance sheets.