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alstry (35.36)

FloridaBuilder is CRACKED!!!!

Recs

13

May 12, 2008 – Comments (8)

First , I must precede this post with saying that I have the upmost respect for FloridaBuilder.  I think his presence on CAPS is a huge addition and without a doubt one of its most important players.

As many of you know FB and I have a race going on whether SPF or WCI would go bankrupt first.  To be fair, in the heat of the game, sometimes even the best go on FullTilt and I think FB has fallen off his horse as we approach the finish line.

FB is trying to say that SPF and HOV are in similar financial positions.  From my perspective, that is like saying that I have similar looks to George Clooney.  If you know my looks, and my wife's persepctive on George Clooney, nothing could be further from a fair comparison.

SPF's relative concentration of owned leveraged land in the most distressed markets is second to none in the public HB industry.  SPF's debt to backlog is 6-1...HOV is not even in the same league.  SPF has been cut off from its mortgage facility and now has to self fund mortgages....NOT HOV.  SPF has significantly more recourse JV exposure than HOV.  HOV has less debt than SPF.  SPF has violated its revovler FIVE TIMES, and now senior debt (UH OH!!!)...not HOV.

FB's using debt/equity as a metrix in the current environment is a little ridiculous based on the fact that no one really knows what equity is worth today especially of most of that equity is in owned land in distressed markets selling for pennies on the dollar. 

IMHO, we are nose to nose coming into the finish line.....clearly FB has the connections, the looks, and brains.....but sometimes just sheer determination can pull it out.....Do You Believe in Miracles?????

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 12, 2008 at 11:10 AM, LordZ wrote:

How is this going to make me money ???

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#2) On May 12, 2008 at 11:19 AM, bellard (99.33) wrote:

If you feel that negative about SPF - just short it! What do you have in your REAL portfolio?

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#3) On May 12, 2008 at 11:31 AM, goldminingXpert (29.43) wrote:

you get much more money shorting HOV... $10 a share for free, versus only $3 from SPF. Since they are both insolvent, I see no point in shorting the cheaper one. If you want diversification, Beazer is also insolvent and you get $9 a share in cash for each short there.

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#4) On May 12, 2008 at 11:37 AM, bellard (99.33) wrote:

Goldminer;

I agree. HOV, BZH, and LEN are my favorite picks for put buying......

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#5) On May 12, 2008 at 1:39 PM, Tastylunch (29.21) wrote:

You are just lookin for a fight with the fb aren't cha alstry?

well gl anyway, your pov as always is entertaining. 

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#6) On May 12, 2008 at 1:53 PM, alstry (35.36) wrote:

Not really a fight, just friendly playground banter.  We live in a world where everything is too politically correct.  It is why my buddies give me two hour lectures on how to behave on the golf course at their country clubs....I prefer drinking in the club house.

I think chatter is part of the game.  If you play the game at any respectable level, dealing with noise is a necessary skill.

Further, I respect FB, if I didn't I would treat him the way I treat a different blogger whom we need not mention.  Respect goes a long way between competitors.

Right now FB has the lead...I need every edge I can muster.  Luckily my nose is a lot bigger than his in a horserace where the winner will likely be decided by a small distance.

Plus, who nose, maybe I can pimp him into making another bet with me that half of all public HBs will be BK by the end of the year?

Nothing like the bad beat....when he you the winner.

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#7) On May 12, 2008 at 3:20 PM, klemenv (99.75) wrote:

Alstry, you both will be lost on late Wednesday night, when Beazer will reveal their stellar performance :)

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#8) On May 12, 2008 at 4:52 PM, alstry (35.36) wrote:

FWIW, I think BZH is the best HB out there...............................................................................................just kidding.

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