Fool Intel - New Data from CAPS
We said to check back for an interesting development in the CAPSosphere and here it is - Fool Intel.
What is Fool Intel? It is a new way to use the intelligence gathering power of CAPS. Rather than asking users to rate individual stocks and ranking them on their performance, Fool Intel takes people who are already highly ranked (90 pr above) and asks questions about the market that go beyond the movement of a single stock.
The questions are designed to be interesting and quantifiable. Fool Intel isn’t about questions that have a multitude of answers ("what is your favorite stock?") or questions that are vague or general ("do you like the Internet?"). Ideally, after every question we can return at a later date and say definitively “the majority was right” or “the majority was wrong.”
Which make the results of the first Fool Intel survey very interesting.
The best players in CAPS are perfectly split on the state of the market in the next quarter. Is this a sign that the market is too volatile to judge? Does this mean that top players with heavy short positions see a drastically different market than top players with green thumbs?
With one data point, I’m not sure. So we’re going to run this question again, every month or so, along with the other Fool Intel questions. We’re going to look for trends, and we’re going to keep records on how correct we are. And maybe, a year or two from now, we’ll be able to add another level to the predictive capabilities of CAPS.
Have a cool idea for a question? A comment about the data? Leave it in the comments! Also, if you favorite TMFFoolIntel, you can see the latest blog posts via the favorites tab on the MyCAPS Page.