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Fool Knows: The Gun Craze is Just Getting Started (Part 2). Guns: A Better Buy Than Stocks

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April 16, 2009 – Comments (8) | RELATED TICKERS: SWHC , RGR , OLN

Lets review my 25 March 09 post. CHANGES IN BOLD

I know Fools that followed me into this trade are wondering when to get out of it. SWHC is up over 110% since I posted on it 17 Feb 09.

I took out some of my leveraged, but I am not getting out of this trade based on a price, but more on a time line or specific events I expect to see in the coming months. 

My WAG is the gun craze is just getting started, in 6-12 months it will get nuts, IMHO

Some things I am looking for:

1. You will see people camping outside of sporting good stores waiting for ammo shipments

We are close to that here:

60 Minutes:

The Way Of The Gun

Americans are buying guns and ammunition at a startling rate despite the economic downturn. As Lesley Stahl reports, the economy, as well as the election of Barack Obama may be the reason for the run on guns.

April 12, 2009 5:03 PM

 2. Jim Crammer will do a show on guns

60 Minutes will do?

The Way Of The Gun

WSJ 16 APR 09

Fear and Greed Have Sales of Guns and Ammo Shooting Up

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123984046627223159.html#mod=todays_us_page_one

FAYETTEVILLE, Ga. -- The way Jay Chambers sees it, the semiautomatic weapons in his firearm collection might be the most promising investment in his financial portfolio.

AK-47

Like many gun enthusiasts, Mr. Chambers, a manager for a door wholesaler here, believes President Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress soon will reimpose a version of an expired federal ban on the sale of so-called assault weapons. If such a law passes, he figures his collection -- enough guns, ammo magazines and weapon parts to assemble about 30 AK-47s, AR-15s and other semiautomatic rifles -- could triple in value.

"A guy could easily make a lot of money," says Mr. Chambers, 47 years old, while at Autrey's Armory, a gun store a

 

12 Apr 09

3. A new IPOs on ammo makers are created

Matter of Time

4. Families will put down their PS3, XBOX 360s etc... and will be going to the gun range

Yep, it is happening big time. Call you local shop for a class and ask.

5. There will be more sporting events and shows about guns coming to a theater near you

It is happening and is gaining momentum

6. Factories will re-tool to produce ammo and guns

Matter of time

7. Tariffs will block out foreign weapons imports. 

Again for you Fools, that do not buy into this story, just wait, you will see.

You are seeing it and you will see it more. 

Since my post 17 Feb 09 look at the media.

Mineyville follows:

Guns: A Better Buy Than Stocks

Andrew Jeffery  Apr 16, 2009 1:10 pm

WSJ catches on: Fear and Greed Have Sales of Guns and Ammo Shooting Up

 APRIL 16, 2009

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123984046627223159.html#mod=todays_us_page_one

Reuters is telling us what Fool already knows:

In American crisis, anger and guns:Bernd Debusmann

By Bernd Debusmann

WASHINGTON, March 19 (Reuters) - In the first two months of this year, around 2.5 million Americans bought guns, a 26% percent increase over the same period in 2008. It was great news for gun makers and a sign of a dark mood in the country. Gun sales shot up almost immediately after Barack Obama won the U.S. presidential elections on November 4 and firearm enthusiasts rushed to stores, fearing he would tighten gun controls despite campaign pledges to the contrary. After the November spike, gun dealers say, a second motive has helped drive sales: fear of social unrest as the ailing economy pushes the newly destitute deeper into misery.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N18371036.htm 

My posts on Guns here:

The Solution. What is more rare, harder to find then gold......

March 22, 2009

Violence Until Debt Jubilee and Jim Rogers (03 Mar 09)

March 06, 2009

Net Long the US Market! (Ultra-shorts and Guns and Ammo)

March 05, 2009

Obama Promises To Stop America's Sh-tty Jobs From Going O......

Detroit: Homicide Down, No One Left to Kill

March 03, 2009

Barron's writes what Fooldom Knows, the Consumer is Buyin......

March 01, 2009

When in Africa do as the Africans. Long SWHC and RGR

February 25, 2009

Long Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC). Top Ten Story: Guns and the Constitution: A legislator finally gets it

February 17, 2009

WARNING: The government may end this trade with legislation on a whim or by taxation. 

8 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 16, 2009 at 3:58 PM, BradAllenton (31.60) wrote:

I hold a nice position in OLN, I'm debating on holding on until earnings. I cut 1/3 of it loose a few days ago, not sure yet what I will do with the rest. What are your thoughts?

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#2) On April 16, 2009 at 5:38 PM, KamranatUCLA (29.44) wrote:

Good stock but because of ethical reasons and because i like to sleep tight at night knowing i won't be a reason a kid died i don't touch stocks like these...so no thank you.

I am against tabacco and defense for the same reason. plenty of other ways to make money without affecting my Karma.

Yes you might make some pennies but if you believe in Karma as I do it's not worth it that you or your kid gets cancer because of few dollars....no thanks but no thanks. 

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#3) On April 16, 2009 at 5:50 PM, beatnik11 (< 20) wrote:

I personally dont care much for supporting such companies, but for those who dont really care, might as well make money while the chicken little gun nuts think that somehow the 2nd amendment will be done away with.  Ahhhhh, what it must be like to live in an alternate universe

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#4) On April 16, 2009 at 6:49 PM, abitare (38.89) wrote:

ALCON,

Thank you for the replies. For the record, I dont like guns. I dont like to point them fire them or keep one in the house.

I do keep a guns as in investment, responsibility, because I am God Fearing Adult, who knows the nature of disinfranchised and unemployed men. I have been to Aulzchwitz, the Jewish Ghetto's in Warsaw, although is a Jewish ghetto, there are no jews? There were no vigins after Russians took Berlin. Japanesse use to cut off the noses of the Koreans, who were disobiedient, Stalin or Hitler? Who was worse? Or Mao? about 60 million dead, most died unarmed. No more Jews in Polish Jewish ghettos etc.... Keep pretending that man is above these things.  US Army Jags were prosecuting 500 rape cases a week in Berlin after the fall of the Third Reich.  Killing Fields in Camodia etc...

Here is your word for the day Fools - pogrom

I read and I watch, I know that the Four Horsemen can ride at anytime, so I dont mock God by not being prepared.

The world markets have sold off at a record unseen pace. To pretend there is not going to be violence is the height of naive, childish, stupidity.  Which direction will these unwashed disinfranchised masses go? They will prey on the weak real or precieved. DO you think the world thinks Pres Obama is a strong leader?

Fools can take my views or leave it. Unfortunately, I have been right. abitarePERFECT has the red badge to prove it and abitare has the points.  I hope to be wrong, but I am not stupid. Faber and JR are saying the same thing.

BradAllenton,

The gun story is just getting momentum. I would not cash out here. The government can stop this market trading anytime, especially guns. I like physical guns too, if you can get them a t a good price.

So what do you want to do? I WOULD DO THE OPPOSITE. It works for me. WallStreet likes a winner and guns are the winner right now.

 KamranatUCLA,

Here is some good karma, meeting someone who does not care.

beatnik11

You are a child, that is nice. Unfortunately, the world can be a really tough place. I am happy you have not seen it. Give your mother a big huge and thank her for protecting you this long.

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#5) On April 16, 2009 at 8:03 PM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Abitare:

Somewhat off topic, but not worthy of its own blog.  The extremely hard to find and expensive .223 ammunition is available at MidwayUSA (Federal American Eagle FMJ 55 gr. for range use).

It's only $99.99 plus shipping for 200 rounds.  If this means nothing to the reader, easy to ignore.

If you can read this blog, thank a teacher.  If you can read it in English, thank a soldier.

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#6) On April 16, 2009 at 9:05 PM, abitare (38.89) wrote:

Donnernv,

Good post, good reply. That you. BTW- I was looking at ammo at a big sporting goods store, I found some .357 (I think it was) hidden mixed in with the boxes. I pulled it out and went and talked to a clerk, some guy swooped in and bought it from under me.  Funny. 

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#7) On April 16, 2009 at 10:03 PM, MasterMind1234 (26.37) wrote:

Is this a bad thing guys?

You should see how strapped I am ;)

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#8) On April 16, 2009 at 10:31 PM, Donnernv (< 20) wrote:

Abitare:

 Next time you're at the range or a gun shop, check out the Kimber .45 ACP.  What a beautiful piece of work.

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