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Fooldom Knows the Current Bull Market, but did you know about the Next Big Bubble to Implode?

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July 03, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: SWHC , RGR , OLN

Although I am the #1 Top Underperform Member, I make most of my money being Long stocks. Fooldom knows about the current Bull Market, because I told you several times over the last 8 months, back when the stocks were 80-100% cheaper.

All together Fools! The current bull market is?????????

GUNS AND AMMO!

(Ref: Long Smith & Wesson Holding (SWHC). Top Ten Story: Guns and the Constitution: A legislator finally gets it February 17, 2009  or Pitch by: abitare 2/24/09 1:26 PM I am not a "gun nut". I do try shoot annually. I do not feel tougher handling a gun (well, maybe a 50 Cal or something like that) I would prefer not to have a gun in my home.

But I know my history, I feel it is a civic duty and responsibility to keep a weapon in my home, so like many good Americans I do.

Anyone, who has tried to buy ammo lately, or been to a gun show knows the "consumer is not dead". I think the guns, gold, silver, and ammo story "has legs". Gold and silver are up 300% since 2001, but SWHC has fallen from $21 to $2.50. I do not think SWHC is a great company or at a good PE. But I think the story will work and there are not many publically traded gun and ammo makers left. )

Yep, Fooldom knows and now the masses do! CFR's Legacy Media Time Magazine breaks the story here:

http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1891475_1891477_1891536,00.html

Jody Windschitl, 49, Missouri Valley, Iowa

Our sales are up about 33% this year compared with last. As an industry, they say it's the "Obama effect." We have never been in business when the Democrats are in office. We've been told that gun sales go through the roof, and they weren't kidding. We can't even get stuff. Ammunition has just dried up all over the country. Right now we're so busy, we've had to hire one person. People are afraid also of the Democrats' putting a ban on firearms — that's the biggest fear factor.

I used to see about five M-15s sold a year. Until about two weeks ago, we were selling about five a week. Now it's three a week. More women are buying, especially older ones. A lot of them are widows who are alone, and they want to have self-protection, just because of the economy. We've had a lot of robberies and break-ins in our area, and they're attributing that to people being out of work.

QUOTE ME: As long as Obama is President there will be a major, major Bull Market in guns and ammo. I wish the best for President Obama and my country, however Obama is unknown, has no real relevant experience and most people will never, put confidence in this KID, with the incredibly strange background. The gun and ammo craze may get far, far nuttier, then it is now. 

BREAK =========================================

All right Fools, I posted about this earlier with a two hour video, but you may not have figured out the next Bubble to implode. This Bubble will be taken down thanks to the internet, creative destruction and information falling to free!

All together Fools! What is the next giant bubble to get taken out??????

College Education!

Vox Day breaks the story here:

http://voxday.blogspot.com/2009/07/education-bubble.html

The education bubble A professor from Columbia and others warn of the financial danger of pursuing degrees:

The next bubble to burst will be the education bubble. Make no mistake about it, education is big business and, like other big businesses, it is in big trouble. What people outside the education bubble don’t realize and people inside won’t admit is that many colleges and universities are in the same position that major banks and financial institutions are: their assets (endowments down 30-40 percent this year) are plummeting, their liabilities (debts) are growing, most of their costs are fixed and rising, and their income (return on investments, support from government and private donations, etc.) is falling. This is hardly a prescription for financial success.... And now the economy makes matters worse. Only 19 percent of the class of 2009 had jobs at graduation.

The problem with most analysis of the value of a college or graduate degree is that the aggregate figures include the sharks graduating from the elite schools - many of whom would have been just as successful without their degrees - and then attempt to apply it to Jane Average who is planning to attend Podunk State. Many years ago, I read a book called Class. It was a pretty funny book, but one point that I remembered was the citation of a study which showed that unless you obtained it from a university that had been established prior to some date in the nineteenth century, your degree wouldn't add anything to your expected lifetime income. Perhaps the figures have changed in the intervening 25 years or so, but if more than 80 percent of the 2009 graduates are still unemployed, it's pretty obvious that a degree is not the obvious choice it was once considered to be.

Which makes sense. The supply of college graduates has nearly quadrupled since 1950 and the limits of the demand for them has been exceeded. Therefore their price is bound to decline.

Also see here: College Is a Rip-Off
The Degree-System, That Is, Not Higher Learning

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 03, 2009 at 10:59 PM, Tastylunch (29.37) wrote:

Hunh my money for next bubble is ETFs.It wouldnt surprise me if GLD etc did not have the assets they claim to.

I agree about College though, college education rises at double inflation every year. That can't keep up.

Plus I get college kids like never before applying to work for me, trust me the type of business I run is not one that is accustomed to that pedigree in an employee.

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#2) On July 04, 2009 at 5:00 AM, kaskoosek (90.37) wrote:

Tastylunch

You made me a little bit concerned there.

Let us look at how much assets SLV and GLD have.

Net assets for silver is 4.116bn

Net assets for gold is 35 bn

Does anyone know how much these ETFs have declared in real silver and gold holdings. I am willing to accept 30% in paper. Anything above that, I do not think I can tolerate.

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#3) On July 04, 2009 at 10:23 AM, ralphmachio (26.66) wrote:

When I think of education, I think of the little dog who does flips.  That's a well educated little dog.  

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#4) On July 05, 2009 at 10:06 PM, abitare (93.16) wrote:

Tastylunch

I think you might be right. I have posted before, that youshould hold gold/silver in hand.

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