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bluebare (63.15)

Foolish Investments for 2011

Recs

13

January 01, 2011 – Comments (3) | RELATED TICKERS: IPSU , PEB , RRST

I spent most of 2010 chasing hot returns in Chinese small caps.  I did OK but it wore me out.  I need a break. 

The need for rest coincides with wanting to tighten up on the reins a little anyway because China’s tightening up and I think the 2011 market could be toppier and choppier than 2010.  So, I’m starting 2011 looking to safely compound 2010’s hard-won gains by sitting on some strong, fairly valued companies offering top dividend yields.  If there’s anything about that thinking or approach that appeals to you, here are some of the stocks I like right now that you might look into. 

AKO’A – Coca-Cola bottler for Brazil, Chile, and Argentina.  4.15% yield.

AMLP – Oil royalties trusts ETF. 6% yield.BMO- Bank of Montreal. 5% yield.

CH – Aberdeen Chile Fund.  8.65% yield.HYF – Corporate bonds.  Yields 11%.

IPSU – This is not a top dividend yielder, but it’s a company I believe will significantly outperform the S&P in the next two years.  My top buy and hold pick.

TRP – Canadian oil and gas pipeline. Yields 4.2%.

VOD – Global communication mega-giant.  Owns a big piece of VZ.  Yields 5%.

YGE – No yield, but if oil goes to $110 as some are predicting, this will hit its target of $14 in the coming year, probably in the first four months of the year, and provide a 40% return on 2010’s closing price. My number one pick for making mad money to buy more Chinese small caps quick in 2011.  YGE spec stake rolled in from CNAM in the final days of the year. THANK YOU, CNAM!!!Z

TR – More corporate bonds yielding 10+%. 

I’m also heavily overweight copper.  Here’s one of many articles citing a well-known supply-demand bottleneck in copper for the next two or more years.  Long JJC and COPX. 

I'm fairly certain I won’t be able to keep my wandering eye off those foolish Chinese small caps, though.  I’m currently waiting on lower prices in companies like CCCL, CCM, CNYD, CPQQ, CTXIF, CNOA.OB, NPD, and SGAS. If the past is any indication, I won’t be able to resist a good buying opportunity in any of these and will ditch some underperformer or overachiever in the list above to take a flyer on one or more of these or some of the dozens of other promising companies on my watchlist. 

That's my story and I'm sticking to it until I don't.  That will probably be sooner than later.  Good luck in the coming year, Fools.

3 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On January 01, 2011 at 8:24 PM, ChinaIntermediat (< 20) wrote:

This is a CAPS player name I set up last summer to try and find which group of Chinese stocks I might want to invest in as a "basket" for intermediate (3 months) trading. I decided I did not want to own any of them for the long term.

I put in a start price about 10-15% lower than what they were then and watched. Some of them quickly dove below even my low estimate of them, so I closed and them put them on my watch list with the new start price.

I now have 7 of them in an active mode, and was surprised by two of them which reopened in August. Others reopened later.

If the Chinese markets takes a big dive for some reason, I now have a pretty good idea for a group of 12 to 15 that I will take small positions in to see how they do in real life.

Don't know if any of this is of any interest to you, but wanted to post it just in case.

Here is the list with start and then current prices for the stocks I am watching.

Stock          Start Limit Price       Closing Price 7-23

CMFO            $3.15                   $4.58   (-3-38%)

ONP               $3.75                   $5.23   (+17.27%)

JGBO              $7.25                  $8.75   (+6.19%)

CSKI              $8.75                   $10.70  (+8.30%)

ADY               $13.25                 $13.88  (-1.98%)

CSR                $4.10                  $5.32    (+2.70%)

AOB                $2.15                  $2.52    (-3.70%)

APWR             $6.50                  $8.39    (+2.69%)

CGA                $8.15                  $11.19  (+7.08%)

KONG             $5.25                   $6.20    (-1.59%)

JST                 $10.00                  $11.32  (+3.47%)

HQS                $4.25                    $4.47    (0%)

GIGM             $1.75                    $2.14     (+0.47)

CTFO             $5.00                    $7.41     (+0.82%)

NPD               $2.70                    $3.04     (+1.00%)

COGO            $5.75                    $6.79      (+2.11%)

CMED            $9.25                    $9.97      (+0.10%)

YGE               $8.25                    $12.50    (+2.04%)

CTEL             $9.15                    $10.16     (-4.15%)

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#2) On January 02, 2011 at 1:29 PM, TMFTypeoh (72.39) wrote:

Are you bullish on IPSU, or sugar in general?

 

If its sugar, look at Rogers Sugar Income.  

RSGUF.PK

 

They've got a nice yield to go with the sugar thesis. 

 

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#3) On January 02, 2011 at 11:32 PM, bluebare (63.15) wrote:

Thanks for the rec, typeoh. Commodity-wise, I got killed trying to trade sugar this year.  I'm sticking with copper for now.  If I had to bet long on an ag commodity, I'd go with wheat.  Rogers has some good funds for that, too.

IPSU is a sugar processor.  They don't make as much money when sugar prices go up because it's their raw material and they can't pass the whole sky high price on.  In addition, they hedge their supply. So, when they buy sugar high and the price declines, their hedges get killed.

However, IPSU is emerging from a catastrophic explosion at their main production facility.  It's been a long time getting back into full production but the CEO says their brand new plant will be operating at 100% in the coming quarter for the first time in 2+ years.  In the meantime, they've ramped up a JV producing a new natural sweetener product that appears to be profitable and well-received in the market.  So, I'm looking at the historic performance of this particular firm and speculating that $13 is a good price for a company that has  proven itself to be worth $30+ a share when things are going good.  I think they're about to turn the page on a difficult chapter in the company's history.

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