For my short friends
Although I am short the market, I am planning on covering before May reports come out. I have notice a substantial increase in activity in discretionary spending.
Besides our remodeling business seeing more activity, I am seeing more new cars on the road. I have a formula of how many new cars (with paper plates) should be on the road compared to old cars. I am in Southern California were we do replace cars a little more then the average. According to my math it should be 1 in 43 if cars are replaced every 5 years and the paper plates stay on the car for 6 weeks. 1 in 33 if in cars are replaced every 4 years. Take into account most of the cars I see are active working people and so the true average may be different but a lot of those cars are not being driven while I am on the road.
For the first time, since cash for clunkers, we are in the 1 per 33 range.
Altholug this is not scientific it is still a lot of new cars out there. It could be that the state is so broke they are not sending out the licence plates as fast as usual, and that is why there are so many paper dealer plates??
Never the less I don’t want to be short the market when May’s reports come out.
Also: I am seeing a lot of Hondas; mabey ford turcks and suv's are off (although they have some cool cars now), and we all know about Toyota.