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alstry (< 20)

Forget 10% Unemployment....Now 20%!!!!!!!



May 23, 2008 – Comments (9)

My earlier prediction was 10% umemployment by the end of summer.....we have already exceeded that number in a number of counties in CA and the situation is gettng much worse daily.

My new prediction is 20% umemployment by the end of the year.  You think I am about this from one of our strongest banks in America.....remember if the banks ain't making money.....nobody will.

JP Morgan Chase Launches Major Round of Layoffs
Friday May 23, 9:34 am ET

Officials at JP Morgan Chase have launched a major round of layoffs in the firm's vaunted investment banking department, axing dozens of executives in an attempt to downsize the unit amid a massive slowdown in business, CNBC has learned.....

Still, the layoffs are some of the stiffest on Wall Street amid the current profit drought. Most firms have been cutting between 5 percent and 10 percent of their staff; the JP Morgan cuts may run deeper even though the bank hasn't been stung as hard as other firms with losses related to investments in subprime bonds.

There are as many as 1,000 executives in the firm's investment banking department, the spokeswoman said, meaning once the final tally of cuts is known, the total number of job reductions could be closer to 20 percent or possibly more.

As many as half the people in the mergers and acquisition department were told they no longer have jobs, one executive told CNBC.


You think Real Estate is a deal in NYC right now?????  Just wait for the Summer Clearance Sale...........

9 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 23, 2008 at 12:16 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

Oh, did I mention Ford and American Airlines have recently announced cutting back 15-20%.  depending on productivity allocation, it could mean more than 20% of workers.  Others are just shutting down completely.

20% is seemingly in the bag.  The question is which 20% will it be????


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#2) On May 23, 2008 at 1:11 PM, mandrake66 (69.06) wrote:

I strongly suspect unemployment will continue to rise for the rest of the year, and that financial services will be especially hard hit , so I don't question your fundamental point, but...I wouldn't use JPM as a leading indicator just because my impression is that most of the current round of layoffs is due to eliminating redundancies acquired with Bear Stearns. I don't think this round is particularly indicative of how their underlying business is doing. I'd like to see some more clarification on this point, but I'd tend to ignore JPM on this point as an outlier due to special circumstances.

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#3) On May 23, 2008 at 1:17 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:

I agree about JPM, that is why I added Ford and AA.

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#4) On May 23, 2008 at 1:18 PM, devoish (70.17) wrote:

Add GM. If as I heard today that over 50% of their sales are SUV's and Pick-ups, and those sales drop comparably to Fords expectations, that will mean closing some truck plants.

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#5) On May 23, 2008 at 1:37 PM, FleaBagger (27.55) wrote:

I suppose you're talking about real unemployment, not the fake unemployment figures used by the gov't, which exclude people from the stats once their unemplyment checks stop coming.

I agree that it's worse than reported (obviously) and that it will get much worse, but CA and MI, banks and airlines are easy to pick on. Few other states and indutries will be as severely affected as those, though. Lots of companies can make money while irresponsible banks are losing money due to bad risks they took.

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#6) On May 23, 2008 at 1:52 PM, mandrake66 (69.06) wrote:

I added Ford, AA, and GM -- to my red thumbs yesterday. And gave a new one to JPM too, for that matter; I think it is credit cards that will kill them more than anything.

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#7) On May 23, 2008 at 1:54 PM, mandrake66 (69.06) wrote:

Oh and congrats, alstry. You've gone from <20 to >98 in like 2 weeks, I think. I know because you've been breathing down my neck the whole way. :)

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#8) On May 23, 2008 at 1:57 PM, alstry (< 20) wrote:


Why do you say that few other states will  be as severely affected.  FL is as bad, so is much of Indiana and Ohio.  AZ is dropping fast, and Texas is slowing...did I just say Texas?  What do you think is happening in NV, casinos are laying off left and right....and I know casinos from the inside out.

Its not just airlines and autos, its real estate, banking and finance, health care....not don't say health care(you won't believe that layoff notices recently) and lots lots more.

That will have a spillover effect into services such as restauarants, retail, and relaxation.  Once that fat lady lays on top of you and starts pumping, its hard to get her off......if you know what I mean.

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#9) On May 24, 2008 at 10:18 AM, Ferrari321 (25.55) wrote:

Are you estimating 20% unemployment based on BLS numbers? (which is currently 5.0% as of Apr) -- if so, I'll take the other side of that bet and I'd guess that we have an unemployment number south of 20% by year-end. Anyways just a friendly wager but I do track/read your comment and value them quite highly.

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