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anticitrade (99.58)

Four stocks I bought today with real money.

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November 09, 2009 – Comments (18) | RELATED TICKERS: ICON , TITN , SPTN

Using my model I bought 4 new stocks today. 

TITN - I bought this because it has a strong potential upside when you consider that a year ago it was selling for 25 $/share and its financials have only gotten stronger since then.  Plus it gives me some diversity into the agricultural industry.

SPTN - Like TITN, this stock also had a price of about 25$/share last year and has had strong growth in the last year.  Also it gave me some diversity into the supermarket sector.

ICON - Although this company has been pretty stale this year, the growth of this company over the past 5 years has been pretty phenomenal.  I suspect that as our econmy balances itself out this company will continue its strong growth.

MIDD - This pick took me the longest to find.  I dont expect explosive growth from this one, but a slow steady climb to about a 40% return.

I also looked at: GYMB (I am not convinced they still have room to grow), GIGM (I am unimpressed with the online pocker game potential), ELNK (but there is no way I am investing in dialup), CBRL (good steady company, but I just couldnt get excited about it), and there were several more.

TITN and SPTN are my favorite picks from this bunch.

18 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On November 09, 2009 at 4:07 PM, chk999 (99.99) wrote:

One thing I notice about TITN from looking at the income statement is that in the last reported quarter, net income was only about 2% of revenue. This seems very low.

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#2) On November 09, 2009 at 4:49 PM, Bays (99.25) wrote:

Ya their margins dont look the greatest, but how do they compare to their competitors?

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#3) On November 09, 2009 at 4:54 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

Interesting comments about TITN.  I will check out the details of my margin analysis when I get home.  I can also test a few of their competitors to see how different they really are.

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#4) On November 09, 2009 at 8:02 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

I just checked out the details of my analysis on TITN.  My DCF analysis is incredibly optimistic about this stock (fortunately it is only a piece of my total valuation).  As I suspected, the revenue growth really is the catalyst to my valuation.  I compared the company against a few of it's competitors (as designated by Google....) and found that they were still not generating any net income.

I suspect that as they grow they will be able to take advantage of more economics of scale and improve their margins.

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#5) On November 09, 2009 at 11:00 PM, streetflame (34.94) wrote:

Hey anticitrade, I'm never able to logon to your website.  I can reset my password via email, but then when I try to log in it tells me my new password is incorrect.  Maybe I'm just doing something wrong.  If you need any more info on the problem just send me a message.

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#6) On November 10, 2009 at 9:41 AM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

Let me talk to our web guy and get that fixed.

What is your username on anticitrade?

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#7) On November 10, 2009 at 10:55 AM, Bays (99.25) wrote:

Well by looking at their historical margins, it's not like they have gotten worse.  Their net margin has always been low--it actually has gotten a little bit better. 

So Im not sure why the market valued them so much higher back then then they do now.

This being said, I still dont like the idea of a net margin lower than the return of bonds.   The company could have made more money if they had just invested all their capital into bonds.

Obviously the market at the time had a brighter outlook for this company.  If they can improve their margins, their stock price will most likely rise fairly quickly.

Just some food for thought.

Bays

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#8) On November 12, 2009 at 12:39 PM, Tastylunch (30.06) wrote:

Bummer about ICON/PLA deal. Bad luck.

 

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#9) On November 12, 2009 at 2:03 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

Yeah, I actually just sold ICON.  I am not interested in owning a piece of PLA.  I took almost a 6% loss on this investment in just a few days, but my reasons for buying it changed and I only want to have money in stocks I believe in.  I am going to scramble and find a new pick today.

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#10) On November 12, 2009 at 2:42 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

I just replaced ICON with AOB.  I chose AOB because:

1)  It is ranked 15th on my site which values it at about: $7.79 (currently 4.06)

2) It has had a tough day (down about 3%) which makes me feel a little better about selling ICON when it was down 5% today.

3) This company has incredible growth:

Revenue has grown from 55 to 110 to 160 to 264 over the last 4 years.  Net income as growth from 18 to 37 to 52 to 60. 

4)  They have an earnings announcement on November 17th which (based on historical growth) should give a nice bounce to their stock price.

Thats pretty much it.  Things don't always work out with investments, but I think it is important to learn the right lessons from those experiences.  In this case, I took a lose when my reasons for holding a position changed and got into something I can believe in.  My timing could have been better with my sell of ICON, but I am not a fortune teller or technical analyst so it is what it is.  My current positions are:

ARKR, IPHS, AMED, ISYS, TBSI, AIRT, WEL, GME, WCC, GRT, KINDL, GTLS, MRO, CFK, PRGN, MTA, EROC, SII, TITN, SPTN, MDD and AOB. 

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#11) On November 12, 2009 at 3:45 PM, Bays (99.25) wrote:

I own CFT.TO (CFK).  Will reload if it goes down further.

I've thought of buying PRGN purely based on valuation.  PRGN seems really cheap to me, but I'm not familiar with the sector so I have shyed away.  Also, I haven't bought anything in USD since last year.  My only holding in USD is DO.  The special dividend is great. 

Antic,

Are you able to input Canadian stocks into your spreadsheets?  I cant find any valuation spreadsheets able to compute data for Canadian stocks. 

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#12) On November 12, 2009 at 4:30 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

I can do international stocks outside of the website.  I considered broadening our website to allow the user to choose what stock exchange he wants to evaluate but it is more work than I have time for.

If you will find a good list of Canadian stocks I can run them and post the results. 

 

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#13) On November 12, 2009 at 4:40 PM, Bays (99.25) wrote:

I use the SMF add-in for excel to gather information, and have also found some great templates on the internet that already had all the equations. 

I'm not a pro by any means when it comes to designing my own templates using the SMF.

The site I like most for Canadian companies is stockhouse.com.

If you could put ARE.TO and HE.TO into your spreadsheet, I'd definitely be curious to see what you get. 

Thanks,

 

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#14) On November 12, 2009 at 11:27 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

I always think these tweaks are going to be more trivial than they end up being.  Anyhow, it did helpe me identify some small changes that I think will improve the model a smidge.

 

ARE.TO  What kills these guys in my valuation is there EXTREME amount of debt (about 73% debt) most of which is short term!  Despite that, I have several reasons to believe that this stock should be valued at about $15/share.  I think their earnings are undervalued right now. 7/10 factors say this may be undervalued right now.

HE.TO  This is a tough company for my system to analyze since it has only a few years of operation.  From a DCF standpoint it seems like pretty much all there capital is being wrapped up in NWC.  If we assume that they get this under control I value them at a little over 2$/share from a DCF standpoint.  Check out their accounts recivable 34.3 M when they only have 40.8 M in sells.  Thats a real warning sign to me. 6/10 factors say this may be undervalued right now, and that it should be worth about 1.5$

If you were to see these stocks on my webpage, ARE.TO would be 15% overvalued right now, and HE.TO would be ranked at 100% overvalued from the conservative evaluation.

Hopefully that helps a little bit.

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#15) On November 15, 2009 at 12:46 PM, ReadEmAnWeep (< 20) wrote:

Hmm, I don't remember if I had a chance to ask you, but I was really curious where your model/program pulls info from online. I thought it might help to have excel calc some values for me (since it is really tedious to do the same calc. 20X) but I haven't found a good way to pull the info. Any suggestions?

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#16) On November 15, 2009 at 4:58 PM, anticitrade (99.58) wrote:

The toughest part about pulling data from the web using excel is that the their is some problem with accumulating data into your clipboard or cache.  Consequently, you may find that the excel program will run good for a bunch of stocks and then start slowing down. To get around this I had to get a seperate program that excel boots up ever 100 stocks that cleans up all the temporary files.

As far as what site to get info from...  The four options I have looked at are Morning Star, google finance, yahoo finance and Zacks.  Morningstar has the 10 years of data, but can be slow to upload new financial statements.  Yahoo and google both get their finance information from the same source and seem to be equivalent.  Zacks provides pretty good information too.  

If you arent interested in financial statements, and just want the series of ratios and stats on a company.  Yahoo has a pretty amazing function for that.  This site is pretty awesome for showing you how to do that:

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/Yahoo-data.htm

Good luck!

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#17) On November 15, 2009 at 5:12 PM, ReadEmAnWeep (< 20) wrote:

Cool, thanks. I will look into those.

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#18) On November 16, 2009 at 6:12 PM, Bays (99.25) wrote:

stockhouse.com is good too.

Antic,

HE.TO is currently trading below it's NCAVPS, which is rare to find these days.  It also has a p/b value of .36 with 28 cents/share in cash.  

I had ARE.TO at 15-20, so we're fairly consistent there, but I dont know if I'm missing something with HE.TO, because I'm getting a conservative 2 with a fair valuation more than 3. 

It's going to have a tough quarter because of delays in deliveries in its wind energy business, but obviously that is priced into the stock already.  

Thanks again for doing this.  Appreciate it.

 

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