From bull to ultra-bear in less than a week.
OK, the first thing I want to say is that if anyone wants to copy my portfolio, your taking on about the most risk you can in CAPS and I'm an idiot for doing it in the first place, but I'm also a stubborn idiot and I'm not gonna let anyone (especially the government) tell me everything is ok when it's not. I prefer not to be a sheep being blindly led into the building that says "slaughterhouse" on the door.
If you look at the chart for my CAPS score, you'll see that I started at the first of the year at pretty close to zero. From that point on, I've had a slow and steady rise to 4,000 in the last 5 months. Before 01/01/2009 I was actually negative as I struggled to adjust to the bear market. By the first of the year I had adjusted, but my portfolio still had mostly green thumbs as I'm a bull by nature and I threw in enough red thumbs to help my score rise. On the exact day the rally started I went back to being a bull and was about 97% green thumbs until May 1st. There was no genius on my picking March 9th. I was simply picking a bear market rally from some time in March until some time in October when Commercial Real Estate starts to have an effect. March 9th happens to be my birthday, so I picked that as my rally day. I made a ton of changes to my portfolio and reaped a lot of benefits from the rally. But even as I was making gains, I saw a lot of news being reported that should have hurt my portfolio and didn't. I'm like everyone else and didn't look a gift horse in the mouth, until I realized that the gift horse was actually a trojan horse. I then went from bull to ultra-bear in record time! I'll now explain what I've seen.
1) If you believe in efficient markets, (which I don't really) then the banks are currently the best run companies in America right now. A lot of banks are trading near their highs.
2) Goldman Sachs is a company that is poor enough to have to sell stock to buy themselves out of TARP, but suddenly rich enough to trade enough out of their private account to control 25% of the market. (More than the next 14 brokers combined)
3) Bank of America has to raise half of their net worth in extra capital and the stock rises.
4) Since the rally has started, the vultures haven't picked on any large cap company. Not one! Even in the biggest bull markets, the sharks would still randomly kill companies to make sure everyone knew they were around.
5) There are about another hundred things I've noticed, but those are a few from the last week.
Now about what I did. I've bought precious metals and mostly silver. (way undervalued compared to gold) I've shorted every Ultra-long ETF I could find and bought every Ultra-short. I took a big hit in score today, but I don't care. I'm gonna keep these picks open even if my score turns negative. The market will drop and will drop soon! I'm just praying the country will recover. History has shown that every country that tried to manipulate their way out of a recession has failed. This economy isn't just manipulated, it's been manipulated criminally.
I wish everyone well and hope that I'm wrong, but I'm stocking up on bottled water and ammunition.