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March 06, 2009 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: SKF

Start                call            time   start    current     today     stock gain/ S&P gain/ score

03/02/09  SKF Underperform  5Y $194.76  $265.37  ( +9.27%)  +36.00%  -5.04%  -41.03

Make of this what you will. It has been less than seven days since I put this in my game based upon "consensus". I should have made the time frame 3 weeks based upon the pitches, but I was really just trying to track the opinions. On my own I would not have selected this at this time, but I was in agreement with the "consensus" and just wanted to track what happened after Musicmaniac599 blogged the following question:

Hey all. Just woundering what you guys think of SKF. Is it to high at this point? It is trading at 200.

15 Comments – Post Your Own#1) On March 02, 2009 at 1:06 PM, Imperial1964 (95.06) wrote:

It's my opinion that most of the money has already been made on that one.  But I won't pile into something unless I get in early.

Report this comment #2) On March 02, 2009 at 1:08 PM, kdakota630 (99.87) wrote:

Wait for it to head back down to the $80-100 level if you ask me.

Report this comment #3) On March 02, 2009 at 1:17 PM, EggplantWizard (98.94) wrote:

I just shorted it in real life.

Report this comment #4) On March 02, 2009 at 1:26 PM, EggplantWizard (98.94) wrote:

And as of now, there are no more shares available for me to short some more. Interesting.

Report this comment #5) On March 02, 2009 at 1:41 PM, Paxtor (97.99) wrote:

If I could reliably short the ultras, that's all that I would do

Report this comment #6) On March 02, 2009 at 1:49 PM, cbwang888 (99.88) wrote:

I'll buy April 200~250 puts sometimes next week.

Report this comment #7) On March 02, 2009 at 1:53 PM, goldminingXpert (99.99) wrote:

It's good to lose half your money on in the next week or two if you buy it.

Report this comment #8) On March 02, 2009 at 2:16 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (99.42) wrote:

You're way too late to the party even if you get a flash of it! SKF will be slaughtered! This is what happen to pigs! Shorting the market at the wrong time is like collecting coins in front of a bulldozer. They might call you a hero but they also might bury you the same day. Any short position held here is like juggling chainsaws while somebody is pulling down your underpants. You don’t wanna do it. Best!

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=150740&t=01009449456398254945

GoodVibe

Report this comment #9) On March 02, 2009 at 2:34 PM, Hodarius (99.91) wrote:

Wow - that's one the most unanimous sets of responses that you will ever see. I'm a contrarian first, so with all of these players insisting that SKF is on its way down, I'm inclined to think it still has further to rise.

Report this comment #10) On March 02, 2009 at 2:44 PM, Gemini846 (34.16) wrote:

Hodarious - The SKF is a contrarian indicator. Buying it now is throwing in the towel on bank stocks.  Options if you must, but be ready to cover.

You may get a few points but the risk is too high.

Report this comment #11) On March 02, 2009 at 3:30 PM, goldminingXpert (99.99) wrote:

Hodarius, no wonder you didn't understand my short all ultras post.

Report this comment #12) On March 02, 2009 at 4:03 PM, abitare (99.74) wrote:

I love SKF. But I was going to short it today.

Report this comment #13) On March 02, 2009 at 4:22 PM, BenGriffin71 (99.63) wrote:

Wow, The average and median scores of those responding to your post is pretty impressive.

Not only are the scores high in this group, but the response is nearly unanamous.

I am interested in what aspect of your post is responsible for garnering a group of responses with such a high average and median score of the commenters.

Report this comment #14) On March 02, 2009 at 4:26 PM, blake303 (99.48) wrote:

Hodarius may be correct in the very near term, but when it does come down, SKF will fall hard. I closed my last leveraged ETF position this morning (SRS @ $90). I would not touch SKF, but DIG is tempting.

Report this comment #15) On March 02, 2009 at 4:57 PM, musicmaniac599 (< 20) wrote:

Ha, thanks for all the great responses.My strategy has been to swing trade financials. They generally follow the DOW and S&P. My feeling is that if the S&P closes below 700 and all the DOOM predictions come true than SKF could still go higher. After all during november it made it as high as $300 a share. Then again the down side is also huge. But if the market continues to decline tommorow and brings SKF up with it then i can just set a stop order and automatically take a way some cash.

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4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 06, 2009 at 2:55 PM, kdakota630 (29.82) wrote:

In hindsight it would've been quite a nice call.  At the time, was still far too risky for my liking.

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#2) On March 06, 2009 at 4:30 PM, devoish (97.62) wrote:

kdakota630,

I could have tracked this pick by choosing out or under perform. I chose underperform because I was in agreement with "consensus" because I also considered it to risky.

It is also interesting to look at the number of picks on 2/27 vs the number on 3/2 and 3/3 and who did what, especially after the discussions between abitare and goodvibe about  when/if/where the market would turn and if it was a bounce big or small. Also outspoken were GMX and a few others.

For those of you that are interested, each top player that I checked either made calls or had a call in place that matched what they predicted. Grade "A" all around for integrity.

So far, Abitare got the points.

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#3) On March 06, 2009 at 10:19 PM, madcowmonkey (< 20) wrote:

I am laughing all the way to bed on this one. Classic!!!! Loved it ish. Sorry if anybody really did short SKF in real life and lost, but the post was too funny.

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#4) On March 10, 2009 at 1:32 PM, blake303 (29.25) wrote:

That SKF call doesn't look so bad today.

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