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IBDvalueinvestin (99.67)

Fully invested now with Bonds & Bear ETF's

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May 02, 2012 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: DIA , SPY , QQQ

I am talking about my personal investment and not about my caps portfolio, which I also hedged with over 20 bear etf's last week.

Its gonna be a tougher summer than I thought with employment numbers now weakening 2 straight months in a row. 

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 03, 2012 at 1:29 AM, sikiliza (< 20) wrote:

Also bearish here. I think that things are actually worse than they seem. My premise rests on the fact that if the data can be manipulated then there is an implicit need to fudge them positively. If the bad data we have been receiving is fudged already, I shudder to think what the true picture might be.

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#2) On May 03, 2012 at 11:20 AM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.67) wrote:

Yesterday: In Europe, we got a string of horrific PMI data from the Euro Zone economy, first with HSBC’s China Manufacturing PMI continuing to show a sub-50 reading,

and then with Italy and Spain registering sub-44 Manufacturing PMI’s.

Then we had Germany with by far the worst payrolls release since mid-2009 and the overall March Euro Zone unemployment rate coming in at a heady 10.9%.

Today:  WASHINGTON—U.S. worker productivity fell from January through March by the most in a year.

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#3) On May 03, 2012 at 12:54 PM, EnigmaDude (89.37) wrote:

You are too focused on the bad news.  There is also some good news:

Weekly unemployment claims post their sharpest retreat in a year

The Consumer Discretionary Sector (XLY) is at an all-time high, 

the strength of the Homebuilders (XHB) has been re-invigorated

We are still in recovery mode and the market is forward-looking so don't get too caught up in the latest media spin.

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#4) On May 03, 2012 at 1:29 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.30) wrote:

Other good news, money printing is in vogue amongst the intelligentsia... bad news is good news.

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#5) On May 03, 2012 at 1:43 PM, IBDvalueinvestin (99.67) wrote:

EnigmaDude contrary to what you think, I am not too focused on bad news. I am aware of both, they problem is that stocks are now priced to perfection and perfection is not what we have right now.

It only takes a few holes on a boat to sink it and perfection to keep it afloat.

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#6) On May 03, 2012 at 3:04 PM, EnigmaDude (89.37) wrote:

My point is not that all is rosy and that everyone should be bullish on stocks.  In fact I am somewhat in agreement with you, however, I have observed in previous blog posts that you tend to react to the latest news.  I think Tracy from Zacks sums up the situation nicely:

We continue to get conflicting data. It's hard to tell where employment stands right now. ADP was not encouraging. But the ISM for manufacturing and this jobless claims report were.

It's not a bad idea to add some bond exposure (although many say that bonds are too expensive now) or bear ETFs for the invevitable correction.  But I think it is incorrect to state that stocks in general are "priced for perfection".  Some are (like CRM) and maybe GMCR was before today's drop, but not now.

I just added some shares of Primero Mining (PPP) to my personal portfolio just in case some of the gold bugs like Franky have a valid point.

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