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jasenj1 (38.91)

Fun while it lasted



October 12, 2011 – Comments (1) | RELATED TICKERS: AAPL , ABAT , NBG.DL

A few months ago my CAPS score was approaching 900, I was touching the 95th percentile, and I was feeling pretty pleased with myself. Today I dropped below 80%, my score is nearing 200 - and all of that is accounted for by my AAPL pick.

The Market is a fickle mistress. One stray blog posting can wipe 50% off the value of a stock (see ABAT). The Eurozone debt crisis can put entire regions into a downspin. Everyone is on pins and needles waiting for what direction the US government will lurch attempting to "fix" a long-term problem with the stroke of a pen (and a big check).

Some of my biggest losers are Chinese companies. I'm not smart enough to know whether these companies are actual shams or just caught up in the anti-China sentiment.

Earlier this year I adopted the tactic of not closing losers - based on the fact that a closed loser affects your percentage, but an open loser has a chance to recover and only affects your raw score. I'm not sure that was a bad tactic, and certainly if I'd picked more winners than losers my score would climb.

Every trade I've made in real life based on CAPS has lost money (see my "top picks").

I picked up NBG when the Greek debt crisis first hit, thinking that things would settle down and NBG was diversified enough not to be hit too hard. Wrong.

I picked up ABAT when that Seeking Alpha hatchet job hit expecting it to recover. Wrong.

And so the story goes. See a dip I think is unwarranted, buy, watch the price continue to fall.

Playing CAPS has certainly been an education in how the stock market works. But I wouldn't want to do it for a living. 

1 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 08, 2012 at 7:42 AM, leaderoftheback (43.00) wrote:

Hi Jasen- don't know if you'll see this after so much time has passed, but I had a very parallel experience with CAPS; 98th percentile, Chinese stock picks, picking Greek shippers, etc.  It didn't make any sense, until it all started to make sense.  I decided to scrub out my bad picks, take the loss, move on with what are more real-life picks.  I used my CAPS experience to fine-tune my real-life experience.  It's been very helpful.  Check in on the EBIX and INFN boards and you'll get a flavor of where I'm at.  The big takeaway is that there is never a reason to be in a hurry to spend money on stocks.  Go slow, take time, observe observe observe.  Like EBIX, which has lots of recs from prominent Fools, sterling performance and is still taking a hit?  Even when there is nothing going on, there is something going on.  I don't wish ill on EBIX longs, but I just had to short it (in CAPS only, not in real life).  It's a test of my real life conviction.


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