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portefeuille (99.65)

fund

Recs

10

October 13, 2010 – Comments (16)

My "fund" has been alright lately (see here), so if you are bored you could have a look at the trades I have done, you might like a few of the stocks and funds. Those trades are of course not recommendations.

the trades (as of October 12, 2010).

16 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 13, 2010 at 1:48 AM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

been

done

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#2) On October 13, 2010 at 1:52 AM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

I recommend using "File -> Download as".

"View -> List view" might also be helpful ...

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#3) On October 13, 2010 at 2:02 AM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

The performance of the "fund" has been slightly better than shown in comment #104 here (i.e. slightly better than a relative change of 29.17%/27.07% since "inception") as I have ignored "dividend payments". As I have no idea what "commission/interest/fees" would be for a "real" fund doing those trades I might simply quit guessing those costs and say that they are taken care of by the dividend payments ...

So I am in the green by around 29%, forget all the "small print" garbage ...

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#4) On October 13, 2010 at 2:06 AM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

And I think I will also get rid of the "benchmark". Who cares which benchmark I am beating by a wide margin, hehe ...

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#5) On October 13, 2010 at 2:17 AM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

and now to the real money ...

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#23) On September 04, 2010 at 2:39 AM, portefeuille (99.94) wrote:

My portfolio currently has a value of around 100000 EUR (more or less no cash and no debt). I have added some fresh money a few times (and not withdrawn any in the past few years), so it is hard to say what the "performance" has been. Most of the now "boring" stocks I have sold in the last few weeks were up quite a bit from their 2008/2009 lows when I sold them. In early March 2009 my portfolio probably had a value of around 30000 EUR and I have added around 10000 EUR "fresh money" since then.

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(from here)

I have added some more "fresh money" (around 5000 EUR) since then and my portfolio currently has a value of around 150000 EUR (still more or less no cash and no debt).

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#6) On October 13, 2010 at 2:22 AM, WallstreetKnight (41.23) wrote:

That is most impressive.  I also enjoy your many charts

+rec. 

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#7) On October 13, 2010 at 12:55 PM, TigerPack1 (97.22) wrote:

http://wallstreetsurvivor.com/Public/Members/Profile.aspx?p=portefeuille

Excellent comeback!   ALL HAIL PORTEFEUILLE (and ATPG)!!!!

Keep up the strong research.

-TigerPack

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#8) On October 13, 2010 at 12:58 PM, TigerPack1 (97.22) wrote:

#5 More Money to Invest in the Hedge Fund!  LOL

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#9) On October 13, 2010 at 12:59 PM, TigerPack1 (97.22) wrote:

Yahoo! (YHOO) is still my largest real world position, and I added to it under $14 weeks ago.

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#10) On October 13, 2010 at 1:00 PM, TigerPack1 (97.22) wrote:

ABAT and ATPG are doing their part also this week.

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#11) On October 13, 2010 at 1:43 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

S&P 500 index (see this post).



enlarge

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#12) On October 13, 2010 at 7:07 PM, Nickalisk (50.18) wrote:

Why is ATPG suddenly showing up as a large percent decliner today?  That was peculiar, any clue port?

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#13) On October 13, 2010 at 8:32 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

#12 No. That is pretty normal for the ATPG share price behaviour though.

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#14) On October 13, 2010 at 8:46 PM, portefeuille (99.65) wrote:

#3 The "fund" is in the green by around 31% now (see comment #133 here). It was in the red by around 31% on June 8, 2010 (see comment #233 here). So it has "gained" around 90% since then.

yeay!

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#15) On October 14, 2010 at 7:16 AM, TigerPack1 (97.22) wrote:

(Message Thread Hijack) 

Many of you on CAPS know, I have been adding shares of Yahoo! for over a year now to my various brokerage accounts.  It is by far my largest real world position.  Here is some of the logic for my interest and ownership:

Yahoo! (YHOO) is an internet-based business, using content delivery, web advertising and some subscription services on their expansive worldwide computer network to generate revenues and profits for its owners and stakeholders.   To a degree, an investment in YHOO is also an investment in several high growth, quite valuable internet businesses globally.  Not only do owners control and reap the rewards of Yahoo!’s U.S. and European Media/Content/Search assets, but they own a disproportionately larger stake in Yahoo! Japan and the Chinese-based Alibaba.com in Asia.

Yahoo! represents an attractive valuation at today’s sub-$15 share price and $20 billion market capitalization.  The company has a break-up value at, or above, current pricing based almost entirely on its subsidiary and overseas investments.  Yahoo!’s ownership stakes in both of the Asian enterprises are today valued at $15-19 billion by Wall Street and market pricing estimates (pre-tax).  [The Yahoo! Japan investment is valued at $8 billion from the June 2010 SEC 10-Q filing and Alibaba at $7-$11 billion by Wall Street, as represented in many mainstream stories printed the last month.]  Additionally, the company holds another $6-8 billion in cash assets and investments beyond Asia versus just $2.2 billion in TOTAL liabilities on the latest balance sheet (June 2010).  We come up with total assets, based on market pricing and fair value calculations, of $21-$26 billion (pre-tax) versus roughly $2 billion in direct liabilities for Yahoo! owners.  The net break-up value of Yahoo!’s” non-core” U.S. business interests is likely in the $17 to $19 billion range, if Yahoo! was liquidated immediately, after taxes on capital gains are paid, and the money returned to shareholders.  This should provide investors with a strong “margin of safety” under a variety of adverse stock market and economic scenarios.

Earnings and revenues are growing during the slow economic growth period in 2010.  The small uptick in the economy in 2010 is moving directly to Yahoo!’s bottom line.  Cost controls, a focus on increasing the breadth of content and total page views, alongside a small jump in banner ad rates, and new partnerships with the internet’s elite sites (including Ebay, Facebook, Twitter and many others) ARE propelling margins and total profits at Yahoo! to new record heights in 2010.  Despite the turmoil in management ranks the last few years, and changing focus, I believe the company is clearly headed in the right direction, despite what you read in the WSJ or hear on CNBC.  At this stage, the negative view of Yahoo! by investors and advisors is not based on Yahoo!’s business fortunes long-term, but purely on the underperformance of its stock price over many years.

The Microsoft-Yahoo alliance/partnership in Search-related subscriptions and advertising (announced last year) is helping to drive a real increase in GAAP earnings in 2010 also, and lower the necessary capital expenditures by Yahoo! to stay competitive with Google, the Search leader in America.  I am estimating that by this time next year, Yahoo! will surpass Google’s ultrahigh net profit margin on sales, after-tax.   This estimate revolves around the steady decline in Google margins as competition in Search is fierce, and the steady improvement in YHOO’s results in 2010 and projected for 2011.

Yahoo!’s business model of low cost advertising on the web provides perhaps the “best” inflation and hyperinflation hedge available to large dollar, blue-chip investors.  Of all the different companies I review for possible investment, Yahoo!’s super brand name, Media-like assets may provide the best upside to revenues and earnings of all risk-adjusted asset plays during a period of high inflation or hyperinflation.  Yahoo! should be able to keep costs per banner ad, clicks and content page draws quite low on existing computer infrastructure, especially as they acquire new content monthly, integrate them with Yahoo!’s workflow, and synergize/computerize the creation of ad revenue.  Given higher inflation rates, it will be easy for Yahoo! to pass along advertising rate increases in price to end users, as other newer content providers struggle to turn a profit.  I am estimating GAAP, earnings per share growth rates for YHOO will be double the rate of inflation PER YEAR.  For example, if we get 10% inflation in 2011, I would expect GAAP earnings will rise at least +20% over 2010, even if the economy is in mild recession.  At this stage, another recession will likely put most old-time newspapers out of business, further enhancing Yahoo!’s appeal as one of a select few of national advertisers on the web, with both local and national content for readers.  In effect, Yahoo! is becoming THE National LEADER (if not global) in web content, new age Media delivery, and simple, low cost advertising for all businesses!

Yahoo's $13 low price in the summer of 2010 represented its lowest "relative" valuation vs. market multiples and metrics since it became a public company in the mid-1990s.  Over the past 10 years, Yahoo!'s relative multiples versus the market have averaged closer TWICE the metrics of the S&P 500 stocks, as a result of its higher than normal growth, higher than normal profit margin business.  At 2 times "tangible" net book value (with assets recorded near cost value, not market value), 20 times trailing earnings per share and more like 16 times, near future "free" cash flow, YHOO stock has NEVER been cheaper.  In addition, the Yahoo! Japan and Alibaba stakes are worth a good $4 billion more than one year ago (from SEC filings and Wall Street estimates), when the stock was priced around $15-16 a share, after the Microsoft Search deal was announced to little fanfare.

The company is intelligently buying back shares at this low valuation, enabling existing shareholders to capture a greater piece of the long-term pie as revenues and earnings rise in the future.  They have purchased over $1 billion in stock this year, with their huge cash stash of $3-$4 billion entering 2010, and a good $1.2-$1.4 billion in “free” cash flow generation during the year.  They continue to forge new partnerships with existing internet site leaders to increase traffic, and are buying content or display ad firms almost weekly to lay the foundation for revenue growth down the line.

The great Fidelity investor of the 1970s and 1980s, Peter Lynch always advised investors to simply buy the stocks of the businesses they used, liked as a consumer, and felt had real product value and differentiation.   If you use this metric, Yahoo! is a product almost everyone I know uses and appreciates on a daily basis.  Other great long-term investors like Carl Ichan and George Soros have built LARGE stakes in Yahoo! stock the past 12-18 months also.  They believe in the product, the profit margins, the growth potential of the businesses Yahoo! owns, and the utterly cheap valuation Wall Street currently applies to these assets.

Through a number of potential catalysts - a takeover, a break-up, spin-offs, asset sales, smart acquisitions, higher inflation, better economic growth, and others, current shareholders should be rewarded handsomely in 2011 by owning Yahoo! shares.

Microsoft already bid $27 a share for Yahoo! in 2008 and could definitely benefit from owning YHOO’s content infrastructure (eyeballs) and Search assets.  Additionally, Microsoft could gain instant clout and access to China through Alibaba.  Mr. Gates just went to China on a fact finding tour, and Microsoft just raised an extra $6 billion in a bond offering a few weeks ago.  They already have some $36 billion in cash and short-term investments domiciled in various units and nations.   I would not be surprised by a $20+ a share bid by Microsoft in the near future, or a large private equity fund.

Yahoo! is in the process of gaining an additional board seat and de facto management control of Alibaba, the next few months.  They are pushing hard into mobile phone chat applications and content/ad delivery, and rumors abound that a major acquisition of content provider AOL is in the offing.   Merging the Yahoo! and AOL brands would be a brilliant move at the right price, as it would eat up one of the top competitors in content, bring in bright managerial talent, and allow YHOO to own several new promising technologies that AOL holds.  YHOO would stand head and shoulders above everyone for content delivery with such a move, with Microsoft and Google far behind.  Another story out this week, places a large private equity group as showing interest in acquiring AOL and Yahoo!, then selling off non-core assets.  In the end, if another bidder besides Microsoft appears, a bidding war will likely result as Microsoft will not want to let this cheap, one-of-a-kind asset get away.

-TigerPack

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#16) On October 14, 2010 at 11:37 AM, PaxtorReborn (29.88) wrote:

I'm with you Tiger.  It has been my 2nd biggest holding for some time now. 

I even chose YHOO as my chimpcontest pick.

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