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HarryCarysGhost (99.70)

Fundementals or speculation.

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October 17, 2009 – Comments (6)

Hi everybody!

After my last post I felt the need to clairify some things.

So this is a synopsyis of what I have been doing the last year.

I've been running two portfolios the first one is my own based on fundementals and price valuetion.

I try to buy companies I know and use the teachings of Buffet, Graham, and TMF(I also throw in 10% speculation)

The second portfolio is my fathers. Since he is retired and covered by a balanced portfolio,

He gave me some money to make some quick cash with. It really would'nt matter to him if I lost it all.

I went all out speculation. Penny stocks, swing trades,distressed companies I did it all.(never got around to options)

Even though I still believe in my long term view I bet you could take a wild guess which portfolio performed better.

Glad I have a % clause in the contract:)

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 18, 2009 at 12:47 AM, checklist34 (99.69) wrote:

who oh oh , who oh oh, dime.

only time will tell if fundamentals prevail right now or not.  this markes greatest ally is the limitless, and passionate (limitlessly passionate) contepmt for its advance.  eventually those beras may capitulate and... represent the final advance in stocks for bulls like me.

this is clearly, blatantly, clearly, a bulls year. even at S&P even for the year a prudent, odds-playing bull was at least double his money.

imagine what that prudent odds-playing bear will be at S&P 1200!!!!!!  still down 20% from 10 years ago.

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#2) On October 18, 2009 at 1:04 AM, starbucks4ever (97.51) wrote:

Having said that, checklist34, while now may be a good time to hold, it's almost certainly not a good time to buy. I see about 10% of companies as offering acceptable future returns at these prices, and the rest are either moderately expensive or very expensive. At S&P 1200, the prudent odds-playing bear will find plenty of excellent shorting opportunities...if he doesn't lose his mind during that journey from 666 to 1200.  

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#3) On October 18, 2009 at 2:34 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.70) wrote:

 I have not bought anything this month.

prices seem overvalued. Months not over yet I'm sure I'll find something.

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#4) On October 18, 2009 at 3:03 AM, prose976 (< 20) wrote:

One thing greatly overlooked by most:

Perhaps the "crash" was bull scat, and the consolidation of business and the cutting of fat from payrolls and government is actually very good for the economy.  Hence, the "recovery" is being justified, but is actually just a return to reality.

The market is about where it should be, perhaps.

Maybe we're exactly where we should really be...even with the unemployment levels as high as they are.  While many may wish this wasn't true, and that we should really be at Dow 6000 or less, with the dollar going down in value, interest rates in the toilet and gold bubbling, a much better place to put your "money" is into something - a real asset that actually does something for you personally or for other people in your state, country or across the globe.

The market does not reflect the economy, but instead it reflect economics of the market ecosystem.  Efficient companies are worth more than inefficient companies inherently.

Here's an example of how people have looked at the market in the past.

The market was lean an mean for many years.  Then it became bloated, as did spending by the companies that composed the market.  But that bloating was recognized as valuable, because those companies were displaying "prosperous" window dressing in the form of buying more than was needed, hiring more than were needed, stocking more than was needed, paying more dividends than made sense, etc.

Smart companies have taken the opportunity to "get fit" over the last year or two.  This has made them more valuable, especially because they are still able to meet demand, innovate and also because the world is not shrinking, which gives them even more opportunity.  Conversely, current business competition IS shrinking, thus giving greater market share to the standing, more efficient companies who made it out alive.

The market companies are leveraging the long tail (read about it in Wikipedia).  There is a lower common denominator.  If you can't sell a $100 item to 100 people then sell a $10 item to 1,000 people.  With technology, it can be done, and is being done.  That's why Tech has led this thing.

I think we're fairly valued and may spend a long while between Dow 9000 and 12000, but it is very likely we could even push past our beginning 14000 because of the new value companies are bringing, not in jobs but in solid, upward trending revenues that has been enabled by the global technology revolution.

Fool on! 

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#5) On October 31, 2009 at 12:27 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.70) wrote:

An Amazon employee described the Long Tail as follows: "We sold more books today that didn't sell at all yesterday than we sold today of all the books that did sell yesterday."[5]

Thanx prose976

Am I wrong in thinking Sam Walton used this strategy.

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#6) On October 31, 2009 at 12:31 AM, HarryCarysGhost (99.70) wrote:

An Amazon employee described the Long Tail as follows: "We sold more books today that didn't sell at all yesterday than we sold today of all the books that did sell yesterday."[5]

Thanx prose976

Am I wrong in thinking Sam Walton used this strategy.

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