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Borbality (34.48)

Funny psychology



February 01, 2013 – Comments (5) | RELATED TICKERS: DK , STX , OCN

I guess it's at least good that I recognize it. But I think it's funny how when I do well in the market (by just letting the index funds do their thing, mostly), it suddenly gives me confidence to start going odd ball with small caps, make hasty decisions and overall just not stick to what's been working more than fine for me for about five years now. 

And of course, the timing would surely be terrible.

  That said, I am trying to branch out more into individual small and mid caps (I have some sizable positions in some large caps), and I'm starting to develop some screening strategies and watching for dips.  I am wary of making any IRA contributionsthis year before there's an overall dip of any magnitude, because I am about 70/30 stocks/cash right now and would be just fine if it keeps going up.

 Think I might sell some gains (not whole positions) for cash to have ready for new positions too.

 However, what came up on my screen that grabbed my attention were DK, STX and OCN. If anyone has anything to say about those, feel free to speak up!  I like the energy sector now so DK particularly caught my eye. 

Here's to waiting! 

5 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 01, 2013 at 4:02 PM, constructive (99.97) wrote:

Seagate seems a little cheaper than Western Digital right now, but WDC has been better managed throughout the business cycle. Compare their current balance sheets and their long-term earnings records.  To me it's a pretty easy choice.

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#2) On February 01, 2013 at 4:13 PM, constructive (99.97) wrote:

I do think it's a bad sign that all 3 companies grabbing your attention are up over 140% in the past 2 years. Looks like trend following more than value investing.

Remember that volatility works both ways - when stocks that have climbed sharply fall, they are likely to fall more sharply than the market.

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#3) On February 01, 2013 at 4:52 PM, Borbality (34.48) wrote:

I wasn't pleased to see the recent gains from those either.  More than likely my screening method is good at finding companies that are decently valued but maybe with some more room to go.

The screening method is very much a work in progress.


Thanks for the comments. I just wanted to clarify that I hadn't followed these before, and the recent gains were not part of my screening. Much research to be done!


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#4) On February 01, 2013 at 8:00 PM, Valyooo (34.43) wrote:



Just because a stock outperforms on the way up does not make it a beta play. Ever heard of relative strength? 

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#5) On February 04, 2013 at 6:29 PM, chk999 (99.97) wrote:

I like STX (and own it.)

The basic idea is that hard drives are now a duopoly with neither company being stupid. So neither will sell too cheaply trying to get market share and drive margins way down. Hard drives won't go away soon, amounts of data are growing faster than flash memory is getting cheaper. 

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