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Varchild2008 (84.50)

GALLUP suggests... Retail Stocks (GME) and (HOTT) should be bought

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May 26, 2009 – Comments (6) | RELATED TICKERS: GME , HOTT

Tracking Gallup's economic numbers of late and a trend seems to be forming.
Now, we did see about a week and a half trend of jobs numbers improving in April before they collapsed again thanks to Chrysler/GM/etc.  That trend imploded.  Jobs numbers are hideous.

But... a positive trend in Consumer Spending is starting to take shape ever since a week ago.  It shows the first 2-3 weeks of May were a mess.  But since then...The numbers have improved and improved greatly.

There's no telling if this translates to a recovery in spending in JUNE, thus reversing the horrid Q2 and full year estimates coming from GME and HOTT....  The future is hard to predict.

But... how in the heck can I just dump HOTT so fast when the GALLUP numbers are telling me to just buy more shares of HOTT?  or GME?  or any small cap Retail Store for that matter that has done well last year?

I am willing to NOT go against the grain here....and I am willing to actually do the STUPID thing and hold my shares of HOTT a weeeee bit longer than planned.

And I strongly suggest that those Gamestop investors "hang in there" as well.

6 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 26, 2009 at 9:12 AM, Mary953 (79.30) wrote:

You're putting this up just to make me crazy - Right?  It's working.  :)

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#2) On May 26, 2009 at 9:28 AM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

I'm making myself crazy.... But hey... I am honest.. and what I decide I will post up here.

And actually.... I made my decision and my decision is that I'd rather be WRONG  and SELL  that WRONG and HOLD.

Looking at the Earnings chart for HOTT....  My purchase price is ridiculously high versus any kind of Gallup spending trend.

There's no gurantee the trend transfers to June....or means anything when it is historically so low....

3 day and 14 rolling averages have gone up considerably since the April bottom (lowest point thus far in 2009).... Nonetheless, it's not HIGH ENOUGH to make my bullish.....at least not yet...

I'd feel better if I was a GME stock holder versus an HOTT stock holder....  But even then... I did waltz into a Gamestop yesterday and guess what?  Despite PEAK HOURS.. I was the only shopper!!

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#3) On May 26, 2009 at 10:24 AM, synergize (30.03) wrote:

On week ending May 15, 2009, six apparel stocks (see Apparel Stores bull-bear chart) were upgraded by 12 various analysts and only one downgraded.

You can view the original posting in my blogsite

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#4) On May 26, 2009 at 12:02 PM, MikeBobulinski (< 20) wrote:

True enough about the lack of shoppers in the Gamestop.   But how many Gamestops are in your area versus Hot Topics?  Here in Hamtpon Roads there are maybe three Hot Topic stores (if I include the possibility of there being one in each of the major malls).  But there are Gamestops all over the place...heck most of our Malls have two in the mall and then some have one in one of the strip malls just outside.  I'd say that here in Virginia Beach the ratio is about 6 to 1 for Gamestop to Hot Topic stores.

Regardless, I find it interesting that Hot Topic is a bell weather.

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#5) On May 26, 2009 at 12:52 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.93) wrote:

Hot Topic (HOTT) looks like a great buy right now to me.  I thought it was a reasonable buy at $10, but under $8, it's a real bargain. 

Hot Topic is not as "discretionary" as many analysts tend to believe --- for many teenagers and young adults, that is where they buy their clothing.  And I think most of us wear clothes and plan on continuing to wear clothes even during the economic downturn. 

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#6) On May 26, 2009 at 4:38 PM, Varchild2008 (84.50) wrote:

What if the Democrats change the law and make NUDITY legal across the board, male or female, anywhere you wish inside or outside.

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