Gambling, ... er investing unlimited!
Hmmmn, ... investing is like a highly modified poker game, ... a game in which we almost never ever get to see what the cards dealt to us are going to be, what they are, nor what they were. It's a game in which the dealer can see all the cards, ... and usually chooses which ones he deals to us, and then does not let us see what they were, even when we have lost.
In an ideal world of investing, we need to know everything, ... but in real world of investing we cannot. Partly, ... because there are people more powerful than us who know some of the things we need to know, and they are not telling. Or worse, they say they are telling, ... but give us false information (or disinformation, or misinformation), and sometimes, they are just plain mistaken themselves, ... but we assume that because they are big guys they couldn't possibly be mistaken, so they take little guys down with them when they fall. They can even, by making it a condition of us playing with them, force us to give them information that they can use against us. This menas that the big question for us investors boils down to this: "In the game in which we need to know everything but cannot, and in which others have a knowledge advantage against us, what do we do?"
Well, ... perhaps one should start with learning what cannot be known, ... cannot be known by us and the big guys. That should place us, at least, on the equal footings with big guys, ... make it neutral, if you will. Next, we should look at areas where ours and the big guys knowledge is equal. This, potentially, may be placing us in the position of better understanding of what that knowledge means, ... and perhaps allowing us to turn that knowladge to the advantage by understanding or interpreting it better than the big guys.
Finally, determining where there is a knowledge imbalance: where big guys know stuff we do not, ... making it the point of decision not to invest, ... but to retreat, avoid, await another day, bow out.
C., ... just musing out loud!)