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Game Over for Google

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February 01, 2007 – Comments (7)

http://www.f...-google.aspx

"Google stock dropping? That's unpossible!"

Ralph Wiggum never actually said that, but a lot of the Ralph Wiggums out there in the national press will be crying in disbelief at Google's (Nasdaq: GOOG) post-earnings, post-market drop.

Of course, the earnings do look fine. Tough to argue with nearly three times the EPS, unless, of course, the market's Ralph Wiggums wanted even more. That's precisely the problem with Google. People assume it's going to do more. How can it not? It's Google!

While it's doing fine whomping up on Yahoo! (Nasdaq: YHOO), it has yet to show any real traction with all the so-called Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT)-killing web applications, like Gmail and that laughable online word processor and spreadsheet. (All the functionality of 1985! Half the speed! Unless your 'net connection barfs. Then, tough luck.)

And don't even get me started on that bogus, overhyped NASA hookup: a non-exclusive deal to share weather and images spun as some kind of high-tech mind-meld. This kind of pathetic fluffery is exactly what makes me believe Google CEO Eric Schmidt is a lot more hat than cattle, or however they put it in the People's Republic of California. (Frankly, I think that any reporter who mentions the deal without pointing out just how lame it is ought to be forced to spend a day listening to Google's engineers discuss the latest search algorithms.)

But what about Gootube? More hat, no cattle. Where's the business? It doesn't take a genius to figure out that people love free, pirated content. Monetizing it, that will take work. And we've seen no evidence of that. Heck, every time I see someone using Gootube, I ask them when they last clicked an ad. The answer is always the same: a blank stare and then, "Check out this episode of [insert copyright-violated program here]."

I still think it's not for nothing that insiders at Google continue to dump shares as if they're laced with polonium. Who do you think is right? The insiders, or the Ralph Wiggums out there?

At the time of publication, Seth Jayson was long Microsoft common and calls but had no positions in any other company mentioned here. View his stock holdings and Fool profile here. See what he's Digging these days. Yahoo! is a Stock Advisor pick, and Microsoft is an Inside Value selection. Fool rules are here.

7 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 01, 2007 at 12:15 PM, TMFBent (99.80) wrote:

Got this comment from one kind reader. Probably the best thing I'll get in my gmail box all week, and one of the few pieces of non-spam.

Enjoy:

-------------------

Mike Dougal <mc*****ed@verizon.net> to me

show details 11:08 am (1 hour ago)

I think you didn't buy Google when everyone else did and you are crying in

your lost potential - you make me want to barf on you

----------------------

Sj

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#2) On February 01, 2007 at 2:20 PM, TMFBent (99.80) wrote:

Oh, and a beautiful example of the way Youtube encourages freeloaders to try and sell ads on their own splogs by pirating the intellectual property of others.

This from a video posted from the Daily Show:

Bill Gates on the Daily Show

09:25

http://www.houstonpersonal-injurylawyer.com

http://www.happykeg.com

http://www.dealing-with-mesothelioma.com

Tags:

bill gates interview daily show john stewart comedy central windows vista

Added: 1 day ago in Category: Comedy

From: damdanger

Views: 255

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#3) On February 01, 2007 at 2:27 PM, TMFBent (99.80) wrote:

Got this comment from one kind reader. Probably the best thing I'll get in my gmail box all week, and one of the few pieces of non-spam.

Enjoy:

-------------------

Mike Dougal <mc*****ed@verizon.net> to me

show details 11:08 am (1 hour ago)

I think you didn't buy Google when everyone else did and you are crying in

your lost potential - you make me want to barf on you

----------------------

Sj

Report this comment
#4) On February 01, 2007 at 2:29 PM, ValueIsValuable (68.34) wrote:

1st, that e-mail is hilarious. Funny in at least 4 different ways. "Crying in your lost potential"... is that like crying over spilt milk? The mixed metaphors me feel like barfing on you.

2nd, Ralph Wiggum references are equally funny. I had a screen saver for about 3 years that was just Ralph with his finger up his nose. Good times...

3rd, interesting comments on Google. I'll be the last person to disparage the core Google service. I use Google every single day without fail. However, the current situation reminds me of Microsoft back in its halcyon days. They are trying to be all things to all people, and that's a tall order.

And, frankly, I don't still understand the YouTube purchase at all. It reminds me of a company trying to buy up asbestos manufacturers after the damage is done, but before the lawsuits come rolling in. Are we seriously back to the "it's all about eyeballs" argument again? Sigh.

When you have so much expectation baked into a stock price that a triple in earnings YOY is a disappointment, look out below.

P.S. Enjoy the blog commentary immensely! Thanks for the reads and laughs.

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#5) On February 01, 2007 at 5:27 PM, TMFBent (99.80) wrote:

You're welcome.

I too use Google for its strenghts, though I honestly can't remember the last time they got a dime out of me via an ad click.

I still wonder how much of all that traffic is clickfraud or splog related. And what would happen if it went bye bye.

I can't believe the internet ad biz gets away with keeping everything a secret when newspaper ad sellers have to come up with real, audited circulation numbers...

Sj

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#6) On February 01, 2007 at 9:50 PM, dwot (43.80) wrote:

I was talking with a young entrepreneur and he was saying the latest in terms of marketing is you get paid by performance rather then the company blindly paying for advertising and hoping it works.

So, the person hired may elect standard forms of advertising, but only gets paid if certain performance numbers are met.

I wonder how much these new entrepreneurs are using google?

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#7) On February 02, 2007 at 10:57 AM, TMFBent (99.80) wrote:

Good question. And it's about time people paid for performance on this stuff. I've seen way too many horror stories from people who though buying clicks was a good way to go.

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