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Germany Confidence Rising – Keine Gehäuse Bubble

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February 07, 2011 – Comments (14)

Very interesting observation by Global Macro Monitor. From here: http://macromon.wordpress.com/2011/02/07/germany-rising-keine-gehause-bubble/. I had read previously that the housing bubble really never affected Germany, but I had never seen a chart depicting how true that was, especially in comparison to other Eurozone countries.

Also mentioned is the Ifo Business Climate Index that porte points to in posts and comments.

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Germany Rising – Keine Gehäuse Bubble
Posted on February 7, 2011 by macromon


The latest Economist reports the Germans are the most optimistic they have been since 2000 and business confidence is at its highest level since the  Ifo institute began tracking it 20 years ago.    The Economist writes,

What’s Germany’s secret? It helps that the country did not experience a  property or credit bubble, and that it has kept its public finances  admirably under control. But above all Germany’s success has been  export-driven: unlike most other big rich economies it has maintained  its share of world exports over the past decade, even as China has  risen.

No housing bubble and an export driven economy.   Here’s a chart which provides a sense of why the Germans are so incensed at bailing out their Eurozone brethren.  They’re paying for the cleanup for a party they didn’t attend.  German house prices basically flatlined during the great global housing bubble.  (click here if chart is not observable)

14 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 07, 2011 at 4:38 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Keine Gehäuse Bubble

Keine Immobilienblase

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#2) On February 07, 2011 at 4:41 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

portefeuille,

Thanks. I just copied the post title. I didn't check for syntax.

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#3) On February 07, 2011 at 4:48 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

Price index for residential buildings November 2010: +1.6% on a year earlier

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#4) On February 07, 2011 at 4:51 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

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#5) On February 07, 2011 at 4:58 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

a figure showing construction prices for Germany using data from here.



enlarge

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#6) On February 07, 2011 at 5:05 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

"Stagnation in Germany"



enlarge

 

from this article from 1993.

Immobilienpreise ungefährlich für die Wirtschaft (real estate prices not dangerous for the economy)

 

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#7) On February 07, 2011 at 5:07 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

1993

2003

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#8) On February 07, 2011 at 5:08 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

2003

2005

sorry, hehe ...

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#9) On February 07, 2011 at 5:25 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

house prices Germany.



enlarge

(from here)

1 EUR / m^2 * 1.3581 USD/EUR * (0.3048 m / 1 ft)^2 ≈ 0.126 USD / ft^2.

so 2500 EUR / m^2 <->  ≈ 315 USD / ft^2

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#10) On February 07, 2011 at 5:27 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

The red colour for "the better parts" of Düsseldorf shows why it is time for me to become Euro millionaire ...

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#11) On February 07, 2011 at 5:42 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

The average selling price for "newly built" apartments in Düsseldorf for 2008/2009 was 2838 EUR / m^2 (≈358 m^2).

Immobilienpreisübersicht 2010 (pdf)

 

So even without a real estate bubble prices are pretty high ...

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#12) On February 07, 2011 at 5:43 PM, portefeuille (99.66) wrote:

358 m^2

358 USD / ft^2

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#13) On February 07, 2011 at 8:47 PM, soycapital (< 20) wrote:

Got the port on a roll here.......watch out above.

 

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#14) On February 08, 2011 at 4:04 PM, lemoneater (81.74) wrote:

Binve, at first I thought you were portefeuille. I feel rather dizzy. 

Visiting Germany is on my to-do list. I want to see the Black Forest and eat lots of chocolate that I walk off on nature hikes. At the moment I just watch Rick Steves. 

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