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Germany to Shelve Nuclear Power by 2022

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May 30, 2011 – Comments (34) | RELATED TICKERS: FLR , CCJ , FSLR

WOW..... I mean I am stunned. Absolutely flabbergasted would be a more meaningful way to describe it.

Germany gets roughly 22% of its electrical output from nuclear reactors, so now it has an immediate need to replace the energy produced by those reactors in just ten years - that's not a lot of time. What's more interesting to me is how the country is going to undertake such a task and to what extent it'll turn toward solar power.

Thus far Germany has been one of the largest proponent's of solar energy and I continue to think the majority of the sector remains attractively priced, though of course some are better values than others. I'm concerned that as the EuroZone continues to fall further into the sovereign debt black hole Germany is going to have no choice but to back away from solar which is a green but expensive option compared to other options *coughcoalcough*...oh pardon my cough. In another semi-unrelated tangent, I don't think Germany's economy and debt situation is as peachy-keen as everyone else seems to think, and yes I know I'm probably drawing the ire of portefeuille who will more than likely retort with 12 charts and a barage of "hee-hee's."

On the other side of the coin, how badly is the nuclear market going to take it on the chin over the next few months. Cameco, Uranium Resources, Usec and the lot of uranium companies are going to likely be leveled because Germany is one of those nations that's influential enough for other countries to follow. I can't say that I personally cared for uranium companies from the start, but I do care for nuclear construction and consulting firms like Fluor which remains a strong watchlist candidate. Tuesday is more than likely going to be a very very rough day for uranium and nuclear consulting companies, as well as operators of nuclear reactors in the US. Likewise, expect solar to move to the upside on Tuesday.

Have I mentioned that this move totally stumps me.... I just don't see how Germany is going to meet its electrical needs with a suspect budget after 2013-2014. I'd be betting on a delay to the implementation of that shutdown if I were you.

Anyone else have any thoughts on this.... other than portefeuille who is most assuredly planning to give me third-degree paper cut with countless charts and graphs? If I was a German citizen I'd be banging my head against a wall right now.....oy!

TMFUltraLong

34 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 30, 2011 at 3:17 AM, valunvesthere (< 20) wrote:

Germany will meet its electrical needs if they decide to outsource more manufacturing jobs to neighboring European Union countries, China, Mexico, South American countries, South East Asian countries, and others to reduce their factories thirst for energy.

But we all know German workers won't be happy with the Chancellor or correctly Bundeskanzler his Kanzler(office) and his formed government for making such RADICAL changes.

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#2) On May 30, 2011 at 7:13 AM, TMFAleph1 (96.39) wrote:

A terrible decision that can only be explained by reference to political motives.

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#3) On May 30, 2011 at 8:13 AM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

Chancellor or correctly Bundeskanzler

or currently correctly Bundeskanzlerin.

Kanzler(office)

?

your "Kanzlei" would be your "office" if you were a lawyer ...

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#4) On May 30, 2011 at 8:15 AM, devoish (98.59) wrote:

Germany's largest power provider RWE, which had suggested ending nuclear power in 2025, signaled its opposition to the deal. A spokesman for the company said the firm would keep "all legal options open".

"The end (of nuclear power in Germany) by 2022 is not the date we had hoped for," the spokesman said, declining to comment on the effect of the decision on the company's earnings.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/international/germany-to-abandon-nuclear-power-by-2022-1.364945 

 

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#5) On May 30, 2011 at 9:29 AM, rofgile (99.31) wrote:

TMFUltraLong:

 Here are two interesting stories.  Back in 2009, a trans-mediterranean electrical conduit to the North African countries was developed as a plan.   "The newly-formed Desertec Industrial Initiative (DII) will receive investments of $555 billion over 40 years for a plan that could provide up to 15% of Europe's total electricity needs."  The big caveat was that the political powers in the North African countries were unfriendly and unstable.

 Enter 2011.  Egypt, Tunisia, and now Libya have overthrown, or are in the process of overthrowing their governments.  The Libyan war has entensive support of Spanish, British, and French governments.  

 What is happening is that the European Union is now developing "soft-power".  Like the United States, which has used political maneuvering to have support of Saudi Arabia for cheaper oil, the European Union is politically setting up a ring of mediterranean states that could provide cheap solar power, and cheap labor for making goods.  I don't think this is a bad thing, economically it should really benefit the northern african nations which have lagged in prosperity for a long time. 

 -Rof 

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#6) On May 30, 2011 at 9:32 AM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

some somewhat related stuff.

 

Sustainable Development in Germany - Indicator Report 2010 (pdf)

(from here)

 

German Economy (pdf)

(from here)

 

 

--------------

Germany copes without bulk of nuclear power

FRANKFURT | Mon May 23, 2011 12:19pm EDT

The shutdown over the weekend of another nuclear plant means almost 16 gigawatts (GW) of German nuclear power capacity was offline Monday, with nearly half of the capacity ordered to shut by the government in reaction to the Fukushima nuclear disaster in March.

...

 

"The closure of 7 GW of nuclear capacity in Germany following Fukushima has also not caused a greater call on hub gas, as Germany made up for the lost generation with greater use of lignite and French nuclear power imports," Barclays Capital said in a note Monday.

European energy traders said Germany has become a net importer of around 2 GW of French electricity -- which is mostly nuclear -- since Berlin ordered Germany's oldest plants close for a safety review. France used to import some 2 GW a day from Germany.

...

 

More coal burning in, and around, Germany to compensate for the loss of nuclear means higher emissions of climate-warming carbon in countries that are already among the region's biggest polluters.

But Germany's multi-billion euro investments in clean energy technology are softening the impact on the environment and on energy supply in Europe's biggest economy.

"The situation is tight but under control and we have safe network operations," said Marian Rappl of network company Amprion, the RWE high voltage power grid arm.

"There are some 6 GW of solar and 1.7 GW of wind power availability in peaktime hours, and some nuclear capacity is due back at the end of the week," he said.

Thanks in part to huge investments in green technologies over the last decade, Germany had plenty of spare capacity when it decided to shut the old reactors.

It has a maximum load requirement of 80 GW in the winter but a fossil fuel power capacity overhang of some 20 GW and up to 40 GW of renewable generation capacity.

...

--------------

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#7) On May 30, 2011 at 9:32 AM, rofgile (99.31) wrote:

Here's another link from MSNbc, that is more recent and makes this connection too. (I've been watching this idea for a while).

Arab Spring and Desertec 

 

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#8) On May 30, 2011 at 9:40 AM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

provide cheap solar power

see this post to get an idea how it is done (in Spain and soon in the U.S. (by a German company (S2M:GY) ..., not all that cheap yet, but close to being "competitive without aid" ...).

solar

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#9) On May 30, 2011 at 9:44 AM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

more somewhat related stuff is linked to this google search result. 

http://www.google.com/search?q=portefeuille+german+site:fool.com

 

done (using no hehe).

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#10) On May 30, 2011 at 9:53 AM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

okay, one last comment.

http://www.faz.net/

http://www.sueddeutsche.de/

http://www.zeit.de/

http://www.spiegel.de/

http://www.nzz.ch/

plus

http://translate.google.com/

or

http://babelfish.yahoo.com/

 

or

 

http://translate.google.com/translate?js=n&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=2&eotf=1&sl=auto&tl=en&u=www.faz.net

or

http://babelfish.yahoo.com/translate_url?doit=done&tt=url&intl=1&fr=bf-home&trurl=http://www.faz.net&lp=de_en&btnTrUrl=Translate

 

just in case someone wants to make somewhat more "educated" guesses, hehe (one per post should be okay) ...

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#11) On May 30, 2011 at 10:25 AM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

That was not so much fun by the way, even in Düsseldorf (see this post or this one) ...



enlarge

 

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#12) On May 30, 2011 at 10:47 AM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

#11 and it is not really over yet.

current gamma ray dose.

http://odlinfo.bfs.de/

 

 



enlarge

This is a map of European Nuclear Power Plants. The red rectangles represent the NPPs, with areas, proportional to the total MWe power of each one. The green rectangles represent the major European towns. This map is only an outline of Europe and would be more effective with country borders clearly delineated.

(slightly edited version ...)

(from here)

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#13) On May 30, 2011 at 5:21 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

a pretty animation ...

How many people live near a nuclear power plant in Germany?

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#14) On May 30, 2011 at 5:40 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

They should build a new nuclear power plant in Düsseldorf, we also have some seismic activity close by ...

 



enlarge

 

 

enlarge
 

Earthquake zones in Germany

(from here)

 

The message is, that if it makes sense to have no nuclear power plant in Manhattan, Los Angeles, Hong Kong and Tokyo, then maybe some of the German ones are not really ideally situated ...

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#15) On May 30, 2011 at 5:44 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

sorry for all that.

I am not really all that interested in the topic, maybe I just want to keep people from not investing in German stocks because "Europe is in trouble" or "Germany is governed by crazies" (it probably is, but so might be every other country). And I like mentioning Düsseldorf, I guess ...

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#16) On May 30, 2011 at 5:50 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

every other country

all other countries

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#17) On May 30, 2011 at 6:36 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.94) wrote:

and yes I know I'm probably drawing the ire of portefeuille who will more than likely retort with 12 charts and a barage of "hee-hee's."

hee hee. ;)

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#18) On May 30, 2011 at 7:03 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.94) wrote:

I am not really all that interested in the topic, maybe I just want to keep people from not investing in German stocks because "Europe is in trouble" or "Germany is governed by crazies" (it probably is, but so might be every other country). And I like mentioning Düsseldorf, I guess ...

All countries are governed by "crazies".  The difference is the degree to which the crazies are empowered.  The German crazies seem to be very empowered lately. And all the crazies in the Eurozone are being emboldened by the failures of the Euro. 

 

But Germany is starting to seem a bit more on the nuts side than most.  Look, I used to think the US was one of the more dysfunctional liberal democracies around, but I definitely think the Eurozone is starting to eat our lunch in that category.

Of course, the US has a lot of crazies, but they tend to be somewhat neutered.  The only US politician you really have to worry about is the President, who has (near-effective) uniltaral control over foreign policy. 

 

 

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#19) On May 30, 2011 at 7:17 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

The only US politician you really have to worry about is the President

glad we survived 8 years of Bush ...

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#20) On May 30, 2011 at 7:23 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

The German crazies seem to be very empowered lately.

The German government has not changed all that much since 2005, by the way. I am pretty sure you prefer FDP to SPD, so for you it should have slightly improved since 2009 ...

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#21) On May 30, 2011 at 7:32 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

I lived in an appartment in a German city for a few years that gave me the opportunity to see a nuclear power plant right next to a few hills of the Vulkaneifel (1,2) from our balcony. The power plant never "went online" (1), but that certainly was a great combination ...

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#22) On May 30, 2011 at 7:37 PM, Valyooo (99.43) wrote:

what % of world nuclear use does germany consume?  i dont know where to find that number.  about 25% of electricity in germany is nuclear.  if germany consumes 5% of the worlds electricity, the total amount only will go down by 1.25%....over 10 years...in that same 10 year period china will keep using more...should be a wash...I still think some of these uranium miners might be really cheap...do you really think they can fall a lot more ultralong?  they all rallied hard on friday

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#23) On May 30, 2011 at 7:37 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

never "went online"

never "went back online"

---------

Due to earthquake concerns, the location was moved 70 meters from where it had been originally planned. After just three years of operation it had to be taken out of operation indefinitely, with restart pending a judicial decision.

--------- 

(from that wikipedia article, emphasis mine)

just great!

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#24) On May 30, 2011 at 7:51 PM, Option1307 (29.72) wrote:

Great stuff!

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#25) On May 30, 2011 at 9:04 PM, MegaEurope (21.47) wrote:

The only US politician you really have to worry about is the President

The president can't raise the debt ceiling though.  I guess we might see what extraordinary measures the executive is legally allowed to avoid US default.

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#26) On May 30, 2011 at 10:41 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.94) wrote:

The president can't raise the debt ceiling though.  I guess we might see what extraordinary measures the executive is legally allowed to avoid US default.

I doubt it. 

The Republicans are bluffing.  

What happens if the debt ceiling isn't raised?  Geithner has to decide which bills to pay.  As any responsible manager would do, he'll chose not to default on debt.  He'll instead start issuing IOUs on big entitlement program payouts, such as Medicare and Social Security. 

And then the Republicans will be completely screwed. 

That's not how it should be.  In fact, I hate our entitlement programs more than just about anyone.  But that's the reality. 

You cut off a bunch of seniors from their entitlement checks, you lose elections very quickly.  And hence, the Republicans are bluffing.  They'll raise the debt ceiling, because they have no choice. 

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#27) On May 30, 2011 at 11:27 PM, Valyooo (99.43) wrote:

Being fiscally responsible won't win you any popularity contests....i mean elections.

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#28) On May 31, 2011 at 2:26 AM, openhandedgrouse (< 20) wrote:

Solar is back??????  Hopefully PWER, my favorite solar play will benefit.

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#29) On May 31, 2011 at 3:00 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Well, solar never really left..it just couldn't fetch a bone in Europe with spending drying up. This could be the jump start the sector needs to trade at a forward P/E higher than...ummmm... 6?

TMFUltraLong

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#30) On May 31, 2011 at 11:29 AM, amoldov (31.35) wrote:

Maybe they will get the energy they need from their friends, the Russians. How to generate electricity is a Russian problem.

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#31) On June 14, 2011 at 5:03 AM, williamjoneal123 (31.79) wrote:

tmf ultra long spec plays 300% for 2011, eng, pkt, lbix, stock millionare pick as said in ultralong december blog, posted by stockmillionare, zagg at $7.53 leading the pack at around 65 percent gain so far,standing behind his pick that is written, and yet ratings is what so many on here seem to foolishy care about, and that is only one pick not the benefit of 3 picks where you have a better chance to nail down one, just saying.  In the end put up your best one pick then stand behind it!  

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#32) On June 21, 2011 at 3:28 AM, nesselsdorf1187 (35.63) wrote:

the decision to abandon production from nuclear plants is hypocrisy.

I am not an expert but I seriously doubt that if that be in 2022, Germany will be selfsufficient in energy at that time no matter how much the goverment spends on it (and yes sovereign debt in Germany is a concern I think). So it has to import it and from where??

From other countries that are happily allowing nuclear plants on their grounds, to their merit.

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#33) On June 22, 2011 at 5:14 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

#32 see the article linked to comment #6 above.

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#34) On June 22, 2011 at 5:24 PM, portefeuille (99.59) wrote:

#32 And everyone living in Germany in 2030 will at that time still live within a few hundred km from an active nuclear power plant in 2030.  So maybe it will still be okay to "use a few joule of imported nuclear energy" in Germany on a cloudy day ...

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