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Teacherman1 (51.09)

Glad you didn't listen.

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December 26, 2010 – Comments (11)

As the end of the year draws to a close, I have been looking at and thinking about some of the things I posted here in CAPs, and how they turned out.

For those of you who remember her, MeganChip made her debut in CAPS back in late 2009.

She came looking for investment advice because she was new to the "game".

While she was gracious about all the advise poured out by the many who wanted to help, I came to the conclusion that she already had an inate ability to make good long term investments.

In October or November of that year (2009), after looking at her portfolio, I suggested that her NetFlix holding might have run it's course, and she might want to take some off the table.

I'm glad she didn't listen, because she is now up almost 300%.

Don't know if whe still has it, is still in the market, or even still around CAPS, but wanted to post this to say, you can ask for and receive all the investment advice in the world, but in the end, you need to listen to yourself, and follow your own path. 

After all, you are the only one who really knows what "you" are doing, and why.

Merry "after" Christmas to all, and may you have a  wonderful and wonder filled New Year.

"Be careful out there people"

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On December 26, 2010 at 11:39 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

Hi teacherman, I posted this-

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/why-i-continue-to-give-all/427639

Seems like it's in topic.

Hope MeganChip is doing well.

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#2) On December 27, 2010 at 8:05 AM, spiril (85.59) wrote:

I didn't believe in NetFlix either. NFLX is currently my worst performing 'underperform' pick in my CAPS portfolio.

I'm keeping the position open as I think it will fall hard at some point. The timing of when that will happen, is tricky though.

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#3) On December 27, 2010 at 11:25 AM, Teacherman1 (51.09) wrote:

Good, they got rid of the spam.Thanks MF. I guess pushing the "Report this comment" button does really work. 

So Harry (msftgev) Cary, you were hypnotized by the toad and made out like a "bandit". Maybe I should try that.

Made a comment on your KOG pick. I will need to look closer at that one. Took a glance in the past, but decided against it for some reason.

Hope you and your family had a very Merry Christmas.

My wife had to work on Christmas, but as she says, getting "double time" pay and an extra day off is worth it to pay for the over spending she did on Christmas for everyone she knows, has ever known, or might have met sometime in the past.

Giving is her "high", and I kind of like that.

spiril- nice score. Darn, you sure have a lot of picks. Any of them for real? How about putting a check mark by them so I don't have to look through so many when I am on a "poaching" expedition. 

Wish I had been "poaching" when you picked TCK. I have seen a number of people who made a "killing" on that one. 

I agree that this time around, I would heartily advise anyone to take some off the table, but I think NFLX is going to stay in the clouds for some time to come, just not likely to go much higher. At least as a percentage gain. Sorry you are stuck with such a high loss number on it, but luckily you have points to spare if you get tired of looking at it and just push delete. 

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#4) On December 27, 2010 at 1:15 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Good, they got rid of the spam.Thanks MF. I guess pushing the "Report this comment" button does really work. 

After seeing it in action for a while, I believe it takes several people to report the same comment for one to be deleted.  Since few people are on the site at night, spam won't be deleted most of the time until sometime during daylight hours.

After all, you are the only one who really knows what "you" are doing, and why.

Very true.  Many companies that look crappy based on the financial statements have hidden assets if you're willing to look through the filings and find them.  I'm learning not to judge others' companies based on only the financial statements - I don't know what hidden assets there are or the degree of cyclicality in companies that are outside my expertise.

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#5) On December 27, 2010 at 3:26 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.78) wrote:

So Harry (msftgev) Cary, you were hypnotized by the toad and made out like a "bandit". Maybe I should try that.

It only works when blood is in the streets.

Contrarion investing at work.

I'll tell you next year if my silver bets pay off, altrough the charts seem to say 2012.

Have a prosperous New Year. My Cristmas was awesome, and I hope you and your wife enjoyed Cristmas later.

John.

(for a short term trade, I'm picking RIMM right now)

 

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#6) On December 27, 2010 at 5:19 PM, Teacherman1 (51.09) wrote:

Thanks for posting TMFBabo. As a result, I went to take a quick look at your CAPs picks and noticed you had a check mark by Double Eagle.

I have been looking for some more small E & P companies to pick up. I put KOG on my watch list from "Harry's" picks, and after a quick look at DBLE, will add it also and spend some more time checking it out.

I assume the check mark means you own it in real life. Having been in that business myself, a long time ago, I am very aware of how the little guys can get overlooked.

Don't know if you have spent any time looking at AXAS, but it might be worth your while. They are not the same company they once were when the were a combination of a Limited Partnership and an Operating Company; with financials that were almost impossible to decipher. I think this will become apparent next year.

It is my largest holding at this time, and that's a good thing, since in real life I am up about 118%. In my opinion, this is just the tip of the "iceberg, and it could realistically be a "multibagger" even from where it is now. 

As always, JMO and worth exactly what I am charging for it.

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#7) On December 29, 2010 at 4:08 PM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Here's what I wrote on pennyperson's blog:

How did I actually find DBLE? I scoured several oil and gas conference webcast sites, looked at every presentation with the audio muted, and determined DBLE was the most undervalued relative to its 1P (proved) reserves.  Market cap of $55M vs. proved reserves of $229.7M.  That's a more impressive discount to reserves than most other companies' proved PLUS probable reserves vs. market cap. 

I think the more likely catalyst for DBLE is development of its Niobrara acreage - 1 to 6 test wells will be drilled in July 2011.  DBLE's 70,000 net acres of Niobrara acreage are located in the Atlantic Rim, the Hanna Basin, and the Powder River Basin.  Furthermore, the acreage is believed to be in the oil window (most Niobrara wells have been liquids-rich from what I've seen).

Rather than have just 1 catalyst (higher natural gas prices), DBLE has pretty exciting developmental plays.  You could argue that many other gas plays have similarly exciting plays, but I have yet to see anything that equals DBLE's combination of massive discount to reserves and realistic developmental plays (when I say plays, the undeveloped Utah gas acreage is included with the Niobrara oil acreage).

I did flag AXAS for further review, but I haven't gotten to it yet.  AXAS was one of the 10 or so companies that I thought were potentially undervalued - DBLE was at the very top with its market cap vs. 1P reserves and the Niobrara acreage.

I'll move AXAS up my list of companies to research further and I'll let you know if I find anything - it might be a little whilte though.

A check mark doesn't necessarily mean I own a company -  it just means I'm extremely confident the stock is a long-term outperform from that basis price.

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#8) On December 30, 2010 at 11:33 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

Hey, I took quick look at AXAS.  I like the assets in general and the fact that they're emphasizing oil more now that it makes more economic sense, but I don't like that it's now trading above proved reserves.  I know the unrisked potential is still quite huge, but I'm currently looking for both large discounts to proved reserves AND large unrisked (and risked) potential. 

You got in at way below proved reserves - great job on your part.  Since I'm now looking at a much higher price for AXAS than your basis, I'm only going to green thumb it and add it to my watch list for now.  I think the potential upside trumps the downside, but I'm not going to buy it just yet.

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#9) On December 30, 2010 at 11:52 AM, TMFBabo (100.00) wrote:

One thing I forgot to mention: AXAS has great gas hedges in place - I did see the swaps for $6.50+ going out to 2013. 

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#10) On December 30, 2010 at 5:30 PM, Teacherman1 (51.09) wrote:

Thanks for the comments TMFBabo.

I had forgotten to mention their hedges.

This company is right down the road from me, and I have been following it for a long time, but there were some problems last year when they were supposed to do an IPO on the partnership portion. It seems some of the "Wizards" on wall street left them out to dry, so they ended up merging the two and it has turned out to be a better situation.

BTW, the reason my pick shows a start price well above my actual one is due to a close out error when a one eyed, dyslexic old man hit the wrong button. Wouldn't you know that's the one time the "delete" button worked right and ended it in the minimal amount of time.

I will be spending some time digging into DBLE and KOG and a couple of others, and will be posting on them when I have something that might be worth while.

Hope every one has a wonderful and wonder filled New Year. 

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#11) On January 07, 2011 at 8:14 PM, djshagggyd (71.83) wrote:

Teacherman1-

Just wanted to say Happy New Year!

Thanks for all the thoughtful comments and advice this past year. Hope you are well!

sincerely,

~justin 

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