Use access key #2 to skip to page content.

goldminingXpert (29.42)

GMX scores 944 points and is back up to #12

Recs

25

October 28, 2009 – Comments (47)

And that's with just a 119 point drop in the Dow. While my timing was horribly wrong throughout 2009, my thesis, that a deflationary depression is occuring, is unfolding smoothly. The market has, it appears, turned the corner into the third wave of the 5-wave bear market. While TickRTapeKing appears to be set as #1 for awhile, I shall do my best to give him a good friendly challenge for the top spot. The market has rolled, the bankrupt banks are tumbling, and I'm starting to smell fear again. And when others get fearful, I get greedy...

(Disclosure: Heavily short via puts, and heavily long U.S. dollar.)

47 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On October 28, 2009 at 7:45 PM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

So my question to you... do we go to, or below, 666 in the next year?

Report this comment
#2) On October 28, 2009 at 7:46 PM, goldminingXpert (29.42) wrote:

yes we do, hopefully by summer... I like low-volume summer rallies, then, hopefully, we can get the final flush next fall and winter and THEN start a new bull market.

Report this comment
#3) On October 28, 2009 at 7:50 PM, goldminingXpert (29.42) wrote:

Hat tip to D1david who appears to have been the only person to outperform me, scoring 1,050 points today. Hopefully I'll get my first 1,000 point day during this wave of the bear market.

Report this comment
#4) On October 28, 2009 at 8:03 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

I agree 100%.  The Inflationary argument is a confidence trap created by Government to justify the counterfeiting of the Dollar.  There are two legitimate defenses people can take against Government.  One is to remove all money from existing Banking Accounts and return that money to a safe deposit box or to convert cash into physical Gold or Silver should the Government continue to monetize.  The net result will be the same, forcing Banks to increase their own Capitalization without using customer deposits to balance their accounts with The Fed.  The second is to call in your share certificates and return them also to the safe deposit box so that they cannot be shorted against you 'in street name'.  The way that you defeat the negative Dollar Carrytrade is to take the money away from the Banks and force them to lend in order to make a living.  They will not act voluntarily or altruistically, so force is actually required.  

 The Banks are the entire cause of this Crisis, so making them pay for their crimes and theft is actually a pretty good idea.  Do not pay the Banks for any loans outstanding, do not give them money or securities of any kind, and fight them in Court until they either get honest or die.  They give us no other option.  They have pushed things to the limit in some adolescent game of 'chicken', so call their bluff and let's see exactly how much money they actually have.  My guess is that they are all broke from their own risktaking and financial mismanagement...taken at our expense with our money depositied in their Banks.  Enough already.  

Report this comment
#5) On October 28, 2009 at 8:27 PM, Harold71 (22.85) wrote:

My health insurance went up 20% in September, ammo costs me 50% more than just last year, and college tuition is going up AGAIN.

Damn this deflation.

The Federal Reserve Note may very well increase in value for awhile.   But it's days are very much numbered. And you can take that to the gold coin store (screw the bank).

Report this comment
#6) On October 28, 2009 at 8:34 PM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

Harold, I feel you on the insurance premium, mine is up as well.

 I am buying a digital camera for Christmas, the price is down by over 30%.  I get these Border coupons nearly every other day for 30, 40, and 50% off all time.  I cannot find a store without a sale of 20+% going on almost everywhere.  While your ammo and insurance are up (and gas from early this year) most everything else is down or will be marked down for the holidays.  Hell, I even booked a Southwest flight last night for $29 when the lowest I got for this area was $49 before.  Crazy.

Report this comment
#7) On October 28, 2009 at 8:49 PM, goldminingXpert (29.42) wrote:

food is way cheaper, my rent is cheaper, etc. Health insurance and ammo are oddballs, ammo due to a severe supply shortage (for obvious reasons) and health care because, well, it's jacked up. However, on the whole consumer prices are deflating ... look at clothes, food, autoes, electronics or media to see it clearly.

Report this comment
#8) On October 28, 2009 at 8:49 PM, goldminingXpert (29.42) wrote:

And tuition, at least at my state university, is up because my state is broke and pulling funding... that ain't inflationary in the slightest.

Report this comment
#9) On October 28, 2009 at 9:40 PM, UltraContrarian (31.23) wrote:

I'm back in the top 100, and dragonLZ isn't an allstar any more.  All is well with the world.

Report this comment
#10) On October 28, 2009 at 10:25 PM, Option1307 (29.70) wrote:

I'd love to see a crash just as much as the next guy, but before you get too excited make sure it actually happens GMX. Best of luck with school and regaining the top spot here on Caps.

 

Report this comment
#11) On October 28, 2009 at 10:35 PM, RookieQB (28.76) wrote:

Yea, I only have 681 points left to go before I reach Zero!

Report this comment
#12) On October 28, 2009 at 11:29 PM, jesusfreakinco (28.85) wrote:

GMX,

Can you state the case of why you are long the USD?  Just curious...

JFC

Report this comment
#13) On October 29, 2009 at 12:00 AM, nuf2bdangrus (< 20) wrote:

Of course we roll over.  I, like other shorts, endured the last gasp rally of crap stocks in retail and lodging in OCtober, and finally screamed "uncle".  With no more shorts, we go down.  I am trapped long in a few stocks, namely WFR HOLX BEAT FPRT SOL SMBL.  I bought them cheap, but they are getting cheaper.  I've suffered too much pain on the short side to suffer a selloff.  I will be selling into any strength.

Report this comment
#14) On October 29, 2009 at 12:00 AM, UltraContrarian (31.23) wrote:

dragonLZ (98.83) wrote:

I say that GTN, with today's closing price of $2.18 (only 18 cents over $2), will not see it's closing price fall below $2 within the next 3 years or more (including never).

 

 

 

GTN $1.91!!!!!!!

Report this comment
#15) On October 29, 2009 at 1:36 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Good going GMX, but I have to point out that if we have even 1 more day like today I will easily unseat TickRTapeKing at #1 thanks to accuracy. It's about time some of these garbage stocks began caving in!

UltraLong

Report this comment
#16) On October 29, 2009 at 10:36 AM, kdakota630 (29.49) wrote:

Actually, GMX, I saw a couple of guys yesterday who had about 1,500 and 2,600 point gains.  The one with the 2,600 point gain was idahoinvestor.

Report this comment
#17) On October 29, 2009 at 10:43 AM, jesusfreakinco (28.85) wrote:

GMX - counting your chickens...

I am beginning to believe inflation and potentially hyperinflation will overwhelm this market to the upside.  I have been considering closing my short positions and reversing to the upside, but have been waiting for a pullback to do so...

JFC

Report this comment
#18) On October 29, 2009 at 11:23 AM, bothisellhigher (28.95) wrote:

I think the onlly pullback will be a short reaction back toward S&P 1060-1070 (where a significant support area gave way) and then a decline first to 1025...this dance has just begun...I for one would not close out short positions but would add to them...in fact I have...I am all over SKF!

GMX and GoodVibe have nailed this one to the wall. 

Report this comment
#19) On October 29, 2009 at 11:49 AM, rofgile (99.30) wrote:

GMX scores 944 points and is back up to #12

 "And... its gone." - Southpark

 

 (GDP rises by 3.5%, marking the end of the recession.)

 -Rof 

Report this comment
#20) On October 29, 2009 at 11:56 AM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

Wow, great call on this one, like all the others.

If you're referring to the puts you mentioned in August, you still have a long way to go before many of them are even in the money, let alone profitable.

And if you trade FX the same way you trade stocks, "all in", knowing that you longed the USD when it EUR/USD was around 1.43, you're probably facing imminent margin calls or already had them.

Report this comment
#21) On October 29, 2009 at 11:56 AM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

Wow, great call on this one, like all the others.

If you're referring to the puts you mentioned in August, you still have a long way to go before many of them are even in the money, let alone profitable.

And if you trade FX the same way you trade stocks, "all in", knowing that you longed the USD when it EUR/USD was around 1.43, you're probably facing imminent margin calls or already had them.

Report this comment
#22) On October 29, 2009 at 12:16 PM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

Apologies for the double post.

Report this comment
#23) On October 29, 2009 at 2:28 PM, alexpaz (28.93) wrote:

DragonLZ= Speculative JUNK index

Report this comment
#24) On October 29, 2009 at 3:14 PM, cbwang888 (25.87) wrote:

GDP is up because USD was down since Fed's massive printing. Now the GDP news triggers USD to go down and stocks are up today.

Further USD drop will make future US GDP look even better.

What a foolish game...

Report this comment
#25) On October 29, 2009 at 3:39 PM, givmeabreak (28.95) wrote:

GMX, the ultimate opposite indicator and early celebrater.

Did you not learn anything from the Bronco's week one win?

How many points you down today?

NEVER EARLY CELEBRATE.

Report this comment
#26) On October 29, 2009 at 3:44 PM, givmeabreak (28.95) wrote:

Will your next blog be:

GMX Loses 732.71, and is back down to #17

How many times do you have to get burned before you learn your lesson. Stop trying to guess (time) the market. You are not smarter than it

Report this comment
#27) On October 29, 2009 at 6:41 PM, rexlove (99.42) wrote:

GMX - I don't think anyone would ever accuse you of being modest.

Have to agree with givmeabreak - don't try to time the market. Good luck just getting in the top ten. If I were you just continue red-thumbing the worthless pink sheet and OTB stocks.  You'll have better success that way.

Report this comment
#28) On October 29, 2009 at 6:47 PM, eldemonio (98.90) wrote:

Don't listen to them GMX.  How many fools can lose close to 700 points in one day and still keep the top 20?  I think you should talk some more smack about how great you are.  Humility has no place in CAPS, it makes you look like a weak pu$$y.

Report this comment
#29) On October 29, 2009 at 11:01 PM, d1david (29.16) wrote:

thx gmx for the hat tip...

(the only reason for the huge point gain, is due to the huge point drop i occured a few months ago, i used to have 12,000 points before it was common to have over 10,000.... (was 2nd in total points behind bravo) as long as i hang on to these underwater red thumbs... i have a chance of getting back to the 10k figure again)

Report this comment
#30) On October 29, 2009 at 11:37 PM, GenericInvestor (86.98) wrote:

GMX sucks, he should just quit. Nobody likes him. nobody.

Report this comment
#31) On October 30, 2009 at 1:04 AM, throwerw (29.32) wrote:

cyclical us stock bear markets/ commodities bull markets last an average of 18 years.  Not sure why you are so certain that this will end next year, only about 10 years into the current cycle.  There are still bargains out there if you know where to look, and there are ways to go short without losing your shirt if things don't happen exactly within the timeframe you predict.  If your timing has been so horrible this year, maybe you should stop trying to time the market with leverage and put yourself in a position to benefit from what you think will happen whether it happens tomorrow or years from now. 

Report this comment
#32) On October 30, 2009 at 1:17 AM, Option1307 (29.70) wrote:

I love trolls!

I'm just saying...

Report this comment
#33) On October 30, 2009 at 1:37 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

Actually, what I meant to say was no matter what direction the market goes tomorrow I will reclaim #1...yeah, thats what I meant.... =)

UltraLong

Report this comment
#34) On October 30, 2009 at 12:23 PM, goldminingXpert (29.42) wrote:

GMX sucks, he should just quit. Nobody likes him. nobody.  

-------  

GMX scores 944 points and is back up to #12

 "And... its gone." - Southpark 

(GDP rises by 3.5%, marking the end of the recession.)

If you think the recession is over, you really are dumber than you look. Your hate makes me stronger ... keep it coming trolls. Don't look at my score today either.

Report this comment
#35) On October 30, 2009 at 1:02 PM, d1david (29.16) wrote:

gmx, if the recession is over, i am santa claus, except for this year, no toys, even better, will hand out raises, promotions, bonuses  and jobs to everyone!

Report this comment
#36) On October 30, 2009 at 1:15 PM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

#34..... all i can think about is the original Star Wars

"I can feel your anger... it gives your strength, keeps you focused!" =)

UltraLong

Report this comment
#37) On October 30, 2009 at 1:22 PM, goldminingXpert (29.42) wrote:

#36 -- yes. Nice reference. That's exactly how I feel at the moment.

Report this comment
#38) On October 30, 2009 at 3:12 PM, TigerPackFund (< 20) wrote:

goldminingXpert- 

Nice comeback in CAPS.  I noticed that your accuracy was staying sky high while your point total fell the last few months.

Rising interest rates and commodity prices have finally spooked the market!  The YOY long-term treasury interest rate has finally moved comfortably above the equivalent reading of 52-weeks prior, during the last few weeks.  This situation I believe was the "trigger" for the latest drop.

I am banking on a stardard 10% type correction and will be buying heavily the next week, after hedging my portfolio during the last 2-3 weeks properly.  I doubt the averages will fall much beyond 15% from the October highs, but I could be wrong.

Please send us your 5 best CAPS picks to TigerPackFund@yahoo.com so we can have your smarts represented.

Our "group" CAPS member continues to do quite well the last few weeks.

-TigerPack

Report this comment
#39) On October 30, 2009 at 3:19 PM, goldminingXpert (29.42) wrote:

TigerPack: Long and short ideas, or just longs? I'm game either way...

Report this comment
#40) On October 30, 2009 at 3:21 PM, Recover22kplan (45.75) wrote:

#30 - I like turtles, feng shui and goldminingexpert

Report this comment
#41) On October 30, 2009 at 4:02 PM, TigerPack1 (97.56) wrote:

Anything CAPS accepts we will consider, either long or short.

You seem to be one of the better characters at identifying small CAPS that are doomed.  We could use a few of those to help hedge the ultra-bulls.  We have a good collection of masterminds at TigerPackFund, and I am trying to add people that will help to increase our score, while still providing a diverse set of picks for readers and investors.  In the end, readers can pick and choose the stock predictions they find agreeable, then do their own due diligence.

We have a few ultralong or short ETF picks, but I would feel more comfortable sticking to individual companies.

Once you email me your ideas I may ask for more information to understand your logic and reasoning.  I have nixed a few picks behind the scenes and not entered them.  This vetting process I think is important to uncovering really strong ideas out there.  I only accept direct emails for inclusion, so there can be private discussions before entering them.  Plus, I can have a clear record for myself about what we are doing and why.

Basically send me the very best 5 CAPS ideas you can dream up, and we will go from there.

-TigerPack

Report this comment
#42) On October 30, 2009 at 6:56 PM, dragonLZ (99.56) wrote:

Good Going, GMX. Congratulations!

I was always amazed how a bearish CAPS player like you could stay at the top even after a huge 7 months bull run. It took just a few down days for you to get back in the game. That takes a lot of skill.

Once again, Congrats!

p.s. Just when I thought I was getting close to you, you started having these +1,000 points days (while I scored a few -800 days).

After losing almost all of my points in just a week or so, I at first thought something must be wrong with this CAPS software thing... :)

Report this comment
#43) On October 30, 2009 at 7:11 PM, dragonLZ (99.56) wrote:

UltraContrarian, I'm glad somebody was actually paying attention to what I was posting...

Yes, I was wrong on GTN's "never below $2 closing price", just like I was wrong (so far) on so many other calls I've made. What can I say? I guess I'm not as good at this game as I thought... (but I'm still playing)... 

Congrats on your performance! I'm impressed.

Report this comment
#44) On November 02, 2009 at 2:32 PM, goldminingXpert (29.42) wrote:

GMX, the ultimate opposite indicator and early celebrater.

Did you not learn anything from the Bronco's week one win?

How many points you down today?

NEVER EARLY CELEBRATE.

---

May I celebrate now that I'm in top 10 again? Or when can I begin celebrating? Thanks. 

Report this comment
#45) On November 02, 2009 at 5:02 PM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

#44 - Right now I would suggest if/when all of your put options from your August blog turn profitable. Since we seem to be on the topic, to use the football analogy, you were down 6 points with 30 seconds to go at your one yard line. This past week or so has been like a hail mary to the 50 yard line and now there's 15 seconds left....still a looooong way to go.

Getting into the top 10 thanks to 1400+ accuracy points scored off of multiple immediate openings and closings of the same stocks is more due to persistence rather than skill. I'm sure I'd be up there too with a well over 80% score had I cared enough to open and close my 50+ very successful shorts a dozen times each. 

Report this comment
#46) On November 02, 2009 at 5:03 PM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

#44 - Right now I would suggest if/when all of your put options from your August blog turn profitable. Since we seem to be on the topic, to use the football analogy, you were down 6 points with 30 seconds to go at your one yard line. This past week or so has been like a hail mary to the 50 yard line and now there's 15 seconds left....still a looooong way to go.

Getting into the top 10 thanks to 1400+ accuracy points scored off of multiple immediate openings and closings of the same stocks is more due to persistence rather than skill. I'm sure I'd be up there too with a well over 80% score had I cared enough to open and close my 50+ very successful shorts a dozen times each. 

Report this comment
#47) On November 02, 2009 at 5:05 PM, EV38 (99.76) wrote:

Wtf...I dunno why I only double comment on this particular blog :s

Report this comment

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement