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TMFAleph1 (94.91)

Gold & Silver will fall by two-thirds

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April 29, 2011 – Comments (11) | RELATED TICKERS: SLW , GLD , SLV

Take your pick from either of these two related articles, or take advantage of my best offer: Read both for the price of one!

Gold Is Now Three Times Overpriced

Warning! Silver Will Fall by 66%

You can follow me on Twitter.

Alex Dumortier

11 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On April 29, 2011 at 7:08 PM, firetiger77 (44.43) wrote:

Yes, we see. Your articles got plenty of attention on the main site; no need to post them here as well.

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#2) On April 29, 2011 at 7:23 PM, simplemts (< 20) wrote:

I agree with firetiger, you are probably blasting this all over Twitter too.  This is a perfect example of "Data Overload" with social media nowadays. 

 "I can tell people in 27 different ways that I wrote something!"

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#3) On April 29, 2011 at 7:26 PM, kdakota630 (29.49) wrote:

Actually, I'm glad they were posted here because otherwise I probably wouldn't have seen them.

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#4) On April 29, 2011 at 8:02 PM, kstarich (30.59) wrote:

The theory of your collapse is as moldy and stale as a piece of bread from 30 years ago since that is the model you are using.  There are cycles that repeat to the extent they evolve out of the worn out and usless prior condition.  You theory is as if the only conditions that exist are those that occurred.  The truth is it has taken 30 years for the full reckoning of those that abused the system in the first place.  Where we are now is a pinnacle moment of truth and an exposure of pure corruption.

Alex, get off the merry-go-round.  Look below the surface! the old order is crumbling.

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#5) On April 29, 2011 at 8:30 PM, ikkyu2 (99.30) wrote:

Those articles are so related I think they're identical.

(Check your links?) 

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#6) On April 29, 2011 at 9:34 PM, ETFsRule (99.94) wrote:

Yeah man you linked to the silver article twice

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#7) On April 29, 2011 at 10:17 PM, ajm101 (31.82) wrote:

Thanks for posting them here!  I hadn't seen the article on the main site.

I think the cost of marginal production will support gold prices over $1000.  Which is enough for the gold miners I invest in (lower cost).   But then again, it's not getting consumed like other commodities so I don't know how marginal costs effect pricing like oil or gas... I'm glad to see another point of view on the matter here.

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#8) On April 29, 2011 at 10:33 PM, TMFAleph1 (94.91) wrote:

My bad; the gold article can be found here:

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2011/04/29/gold-is-now-3-times-overpriced.aspx

Thanks for the heads-up.

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#9) On April 29, 2011 at 10:33 PM, FleaBagger (29.31) wrote:

I would agree with kdakota - I don't look at the main site, and I don't follow you on Twitter, but I think the titles of these articles look really similar to articles of yours I read when you linked to them in comments on whereaminow's blog.

And you're still wrong about valuing basing your valuation of gold and silver in a fiat currency on past values in a gold-based currency. We do not have the same currency we had in 1970, let alone the beginning of the charts you post.

1. Your gov't spoon-fed inflation stats are too rosy. Silver's real return vs. real goods is lower than the chart shows.

2. We've always expected silver's long-term real return vs. consumer goods to be ~0% (plus perhaps a little undervaluation in 2000), it's just that we largely expect the broad stock market's real return to be negative (at least for a few years).

3. I'm actually starting to consider going back to stocks as an inflation hedge (once I have investable assets again :) and I'm trying to decide whether I want to wait until the Fed starts raising interest rates in earnest before I sell my PM. I may even wait until Bernanke is replaced.

4. Hopefully those advocating gold and silver will be focused on the real story, which is the devaluation of the dollar, and the impact it will likely have on the economy, including stocks. The last time we rampantly devalued our currency (the 1970's and 1980), an ounce of silver could buy about 50 boxes of Kellogg's corn flakes at its peak (see this webpage). Those were 19oz. boxes. Today an ounce of silver cannot buy nearly so much corn flakes. And the rape of the dollar is much more savage this time around. Maybe Kellogg's will thrive, maybe it won't. But the overall economy suffers when helicopter Ben goes around dropping Benjamins on bankers. 

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#10) On May 02, 2011 at 9:31 AM, ChrisGraley (29.67) wrote:

both links were entertaining.

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#11) On May 02, 2011 at 9:42 AM, ETFsRule (99.94) wrote:

"1. Your gov't spoon-fed inflation stats are too rosy. Silver's real return vs. real goods is lower than the chart shows."

Which index do you think gives the most accurate data for real prices of consumer goods?

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