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goldminingXpert (28.77)

Gold Bugs Suffering As Economy Fails To Collapse



February 24, 2009 – Comments (53) | RELATED TICKERS: KGC , GDX , GG

Gold Mining ETF (GDX): -6%

Goldcrap: -6%

Kinross: -6%

Newmont: -5%

Barrick: -7%

Rangold: -6%

GLD: -2%

SLV: -2%


Oh no! Where's the economic collapse? Where's the nationalization of banks? Where's my rioting in the streets? Why isn't the dollar hyperinflating? Oh no! Oh no! Why did Schiff mislead me so?

Just calm down everyone. The world isn't coming to an end, and gold isn't going over 1,000/oz. Now that we have the slightest whiff of relief, the fear index (gold) is collapsing. Get out the miners before it's too late.

For instance, the price targets on GG and KGC remain $7.50/sh for GG and $9/sh for GG which will equal 75% and 50% losses once they are attained later this year. That will be complete distruction for all of you how have been sucked in by the siren song of the shiny rocks.

Disclosure: GMX is short KGC.

53 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On February 24, 2009 at 11:10 AM, greattrader1011 (29.17) wrote:


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#2) On February 24, 2009 at 11:13 AM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

Sorry if this comes off as strong. I'm just offended that these mindless metal hoarders managed to drive my GMXmkttiming profile from a 99.6 CAPS rating to <20 with their horde-like buying of really lousy mining companies.

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#3) On February 24, 2009 at 11:18 AM, kdakota630 (29.04) wrote:


I'm confused a bit, not so much by your opinion of gold since you've been pretty consistent there, more with the overall tone of your blog.

I was under the impression you were pretty bearish, but reading this it seems you're more bullish.

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#4) On February 24, 2009 at 11:19 AM, kdakota630 (29.04) wrote:

Apparently you typed my answer while I was typing the question.  LOL!

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#5) On February 24, 2009 at 11:20 AM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

I'm still bearish. The point is that on a 100 point dow move up, the mining stocks/gold just get rocked. When we get a real rally, gold is going back under 800/oz, and you can expect to see GDX lose a third of its 'value' just like that.

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#6) On February 24, 2009 at 11:28 AM, maxhoffa (< 20) wrote:

*When we get a real rally . . . *


just keep holding your breath.  i'm SURE it'll be here any minute.

 lookit, i still want the market back to earning dollars as much as anyone . . . but P/E still has to come waaaaay down before we get any "real rally" in the market


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#7) On February 24, 2009 at 11:36 AM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

New wave down.

US Gold is leading the losers, -13% and counting.

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#8) On February 24, 2009 at 12:03 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

If you're long gold, silver, or miners, please avoid reading this sad news.

Breaking news:

A lucky guy discovered a mass suicide attempt and informed the autorities to prevent such sad situation to watch but unfortunately fate had his way. The bodies of 15 victims found hanging from a cliff with one rope.

Investigators believe Mr. Shorty shot the victims before hanging them to dry, said Col. GoodVibe, a spokesman for sanity. Semi-automatic handgun with 15 spent casings found by the bodies support the preliminary finding, he said. The shooting occurred about 9 a.m. in Wall Street casino, GoodVibe said.

The names of the deceased are listed below cause all the relatives of the victims were notified and currently attending funeral and burial in a mass grave.



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#9) On February 24, 2009 at 12:15 PM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

BOT 10 SLV April 12 puts


BOT 10 GG April 20 puts


Let's get this party started!

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#10) On February 24, 2009 at 12:18 PM, kaskoosek (29.96) wrote:





Thanks Demon

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#11) On February 24, 2009 at 12:20 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

No! No! No!

We're not having a party on people's misfortune, man! Stay humble or the market will do it for you. Don't let it go to our head. But for now, let us....


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#12) On February 24, 2009 at 12:21 PM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

The gold bugs make money by profiting off the destruction of our economy. I feel no shame at enjoying their suffering.

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#13) On February 24, 2009 at 12:42 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:


You show your true colors right there. 

That statement is utterly despicable and 100% contrary to the sense of community and godwill that we try to foster here at TMF.


Not to mention blatantly hypocritical from a player who has himself been long gold miners in the past. (JAG comes to mind).

It's a step worse on the rudeness scale than touting my recent score recovery as a top-marker.



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#14) On February 24, 2009 at 12:46 PM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

I buy miners when they're undervalued because of the profits they  can make--not because I'm rooting for the dollar to turn into toilet paper or for our economy to collapse into a third-world banana republic. For the last month, gold has been a mirror image of the market indices. The lower our market goes, the higher gold goes. Buying gold last week or yesterday was a bet on the American stock market to further collapse and for C, BAC, WFC and so on to collapse. I find it shameful that people would so proudly cheer for this wanton destruction of America.

Gold is often called the fear index. When gold (fear) is at an all-time high, don't you find it even a little bit heartless to root on it to go up more?

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#15) On February 24, 2009 at 12:52 PM, REITDUDE (48.06) wrote:

really enjoyed this blog, keep it coming

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#16) On February 24, 2009 at 1:08 PM, TDRH (96.58) wrote:

This is profit taking.  It is early yet, the party is just getting started.  Treasury yield does not reflect risk, the bubble will burst.

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#17) On February 24, 2009 at 1:11 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.91) wrote:

You've officially become the new Alstry. 

Pat-yourself-on-the-back for a minor victory, deflect all blame when wrong, and insult anyone who disagrees with you.   

I'm rather neutral on gold at the moment, but I don't see much of a point in this blog.  Moreover, I think it's a bit hypocritical to blame people for buying a metal that they perceive to be a "store of value" in order to preserve their wealth while you yourself (presumably) buy and short stocks in order to increase your wealth. 

Anyone who bought gold in Russia back in the summer of '08 would have protected themselves against the collapse of the Ruble. To suggest they should've sat back and allowed all of their savings be destroyed seems a bit absurd to me.

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#18) On February 24, 2009 at 1:13 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:


I have never and would never cheer for such a thing, and anyone who is a regular reader of my stuff will know that very very well. I always express my sense of displeasure for what is transpiring, and have never cheered at the expense of others the way you did with this blatantly rude blog post. 

You should be ashamed of yourself. I am ashamed for you.

The assumptions you make about the thoughts and wishes of your fellow Fools with your assertion that they might somehow root for the dollar's demise or a collapsing economy is an additional insult on top of every other insulting aspect of this blog post.

You have shown your true colors, and even repeated the transgression in place of issuing an apology. Your behavior is reprehensible and your post an affront to this great site.

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#19) On February 24, 2009 at 1:16 PM, SideShowMel0329 (32.92) wrote:


I'm right there with ya man! I've made a few posts about my sentiments on gold and how it's overbought, and I share your same frustration with the speculative goldbugs. When fear is high, gold is high. It's a stupid investment and even though demand for gold has dropped in this recession, the price for gold is at record highs. Does this make sense? No.

I jumped into shorting gold about when you did, and I've been adding companies to my short list as it gets more and more overvalued. One year from now, I expect to have a very nice CAPs score.

See you at the top ;-)

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#20) On February 24, 2009 at 1:20 PM, Harold71 (< 20) wrote:

Gold bugs are suffering...seriously?  From a pullback?  Gold bugs are up huge over the past several years.  Check out the Dow.  The economy is collapsing, slowly but surely.

Dow/Gold ratio hits new lows every month.

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#21) On February 24, 2009 at 1:26 PM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:


I'll let my record speak for itself:

goldminingXpert: Sector (Metals & Mining) All picks:

Score +300.58

Accuracy 76.7%

Total outperforms: 35

Total underperforms: 77


Not great, but good. I am dissappointed that so many of the underperforms recently have failed to score the points I've anticipated. I'm constantly doubting myself and my judgment for getting this last month wrong.


Let's take a look at your metal & mining stats the huney:

Score +500.79 (you got me beat there.)

Accuracy: 60.4% (I'm up 15% on that count.)

Total outperforms: 48

Total underperforms: 0


I think it's fair to say our records are not too different. We both have added value to CAPS with our metals & mining picks.



I think we're going to have to merely agree to disagree. You claim you don't want the economy to go down the tubes, yet you invest on the assumption that it will. Assuming you hope your investments rise, you are hoping for the things that you claim not to want to happen to happen. It's convulted in typing it, because it's a convulted type of reasoning. It's why I don't short the S&P at 750 either. I root for my investments to go up, if I'm short the market here, I'm rooting for destruction. Anyway, feel free to call me whatever sort of bad person you wish--I may be a bad person or whatever, but I'm not rooting for the destruction of the American dollar and/or economy.

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#22) On February 24, 2009 at 1:30 PM, Majhere (< 20) wrote:

WHAT DID YOU SAY???  Who in the heck is writing the negative comment on Gold??? The same stock broker that told everyone to stay put in Sept or Oct 08 or back in 2000??  What charts r u lookin at? Listen - the man who baled on the stock market with $100,000 nwhen it was still at 11,000 and bought gold or silver now owns solid security valued at $120,000 while the man still in the market is at about $60,000 on paper and ink and still stands a very high risk of losing it all.  Whoever wrote that snub on Goldbugs must work for like Edward Jones, those are the guys who told you to hold (to serve their own best interest). If you lost nearly 1/2 of your retirement account on their advice -- How do you feel now?? Any fool who is still betting on the stock market recovery lives on another planet. Be smart -- get your money out now - there is no end in sight on the loses - buy a guaranteed income annuity, buy gold or better yet buy silver!!  Heck you are even better off just burying your cash in the backyard than to let the Madoffs and other theifs embezzel it!!

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#23) On February 24, 2009 at 1:34 PM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

You got any openings at Edward Jones? Hook a brother up.

I'm not betting on a stock market recovery. I've been bearish on the market since February of 2007, and remain bearish on a long-term basis.

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#24) On February 24, 2009 at 1:44 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:


Keep digging deeper, man. I have repeatedly said I would rather be wrong and lose my entire portfolio than witness the type of financial hardship which I believe the bankers and hedgies with their toxic derivative instruments have laid before us. I seek preservation of my capital in gold as protection from a structurally compromosed USD without ever for a moment exhibiting the kind of vapid moral character you displayed above. I am incapable of feeling pleasure at the suffering of others, and so I do not and would never hope for the things that I see transpiring. I am an objective person who moved to protect capital once I saw what was transpiring, and again your claim to somehow understand what is in my head or in my heart by virtue of what kinds of equities I hold is preposterous.

Again, you have shown your true colors. At least now the community knows who you really are.

I am a compassionate being with a tremendous sense of patriotism toward this great country and and a deep desire to see a financial didaster somehow averted. Objectively speaking, however, I can find no evidence to support the notion that the dollar will emerge from this crisis unscathed. 

I'll spin it right back at you and see if you like how it feels. By shorting gold mining stocks you clearly want miners to lose their jobs. See how ludicrous the logic is? And don't you see how presumptuous it is to claim to know what lies in the heart and mind of another person without even taking the time to hear what they have to say. My sense of mourning for what has become of the U.S. economy and the dollar is repeated throughout my contributions to this site, and since my recird is consistent and clear, I am offended that you can sit there and claim to know what is in my heart.

You should be ashamed of yourself. That fact that you are STILL unrepentent and show so many of your fellow Fools no morsel of respect simply exposes more of your true colors.

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#25) On February 24, 2009 at 1:48 PM, maxhoffa (< 20) wrote:

*Buying gold last week or yesterday was a bet on the American stock market to further collapse and for C, BAC, WFC and so on to collapse. *


ha!  that's right up there with 'a vote for obama is a vote for the  terrorists' . . .  nice hyperbole dude.  american flag and all. 

wasn't sitting on the sideline sending the same message, a lack of faith in the market in general, and maybe financials in particular?


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#26) On February 24, 2009 at 1:50 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Sinch -

If you're not part of the solution, chances are you are part of the problem.

I am sure you’re a wise guy to quickly get my message. GMX is just venting and getting some relief from a tough trade that went against him for sometime more than he wished for. In trading, this feeling builds up and once you came to be right, it's a relieve that manifest in many ways.

I would love if you take the high road and concentrate on what Fool is all about - adding, building, supporting your readers and try to put a blog to explain the situation from your prospective and how they can protect their investment and gains in gold and silver. Thanks for listening to my words with an open mind.

GMX - Come on man! You know how it feels to be on the wrong side of the trade. It doesn't feel good at all, no matter how you slice it.


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#27) On February 24, 2009 at 1:52 PM, JakilaTheHun (99.91) wrote:


I'm not really doubting your value to the CAPS community.  I've enjoyed quite a few of your blogs and pitches.  I just don't see the point in insulting, gloating blogs --- especially based on a one-day drop on something.  It may very well shoot back up over $1000 before the end of the week. 

Fwiw, I think gold will hit $1200.  If the crisis drags on longer, it may hit $2000.  I'm not buying into gold because I'd rather buy into other metal miners, energy, and oil since they have greater potential long-term and I'm more concerned with creating wealth than preserving it.  All the same, I can't find moral fault in people trying to preserve their wealth --- I don't see how it's somehow more morally despicable than shorting companies or even more morally questionable than going long on a company.

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#28) On February 24, 2009 at 1:53 PM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

Okay fine, Sinch. I don't know what your motives are and I shouldn't have used the word suffering. You're right on both counts.

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#29) On February 24, 2009 at 2:00 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:


too little, too late. 

You showed your true colors, and lost my respect entirely... and I suspect that of many of your fellow Fools.

Respect is hard-won and so easily lost. 

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#30) On February 24, 2009 at 2:05 PM, kdakota630 (29.04) wrote:

Whew.  I'm glad no one has any respect for me!

Seriously, I'm not getting in the middle of this at all.  Well, except for this blog comment, I'm not getting in the middle.

For the record, I value both your inputs, and I'll leave it at that.

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#31) On February 24, 2009 at 2:07 PM, kdakota630 (29.04) wrote:

OK, one more thing before I get out of the middle of this.

Sorry, but I just could not resist:


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#32) On February 24, 2009 at 2:14 PM, GNUBEE (< 20) wrote:

I was going to wait a little longer to show you guys this.

Enjoy your diversion. Please Rec it if you are going to follow it, so I know how many are even interested in my brand of entertainment.


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#33) On February 24, 2009 at 2:31 PM, herztical (27.58) wrote:

jeez...enough of the soap opera and stay on point

what you think of FCX (a pseudo gold miner)? 

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#34) On February 24, 2009 at 3:27 PM, kstarich (28.89) wrote:

Here is my 10 cents.

Sinch- you are incredible.  I truly value you're imput and you have been sooooo helpful. WE NEED YOU!

GMX- It's great to hear your side too.

Let's all go play volleyball or something.

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#35) On February 24, 2009 at 5:44 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:


Although I remain long FCX with a position deep in the red, I am sad to say I believe there is insufficient visibility on copper right now. There's no great hurry, as FCX is cheap enough that great gains can be made once visibility returns. I would say keep watching FCX closely, and I'll be sure to issue a copper alert once I see some visibility returning. We need real demand resumption from Asia rather than just the restocking false alarm we saw in the BDI from Decemner through earlier this month.

Althought they have considerable gold reserves that help keep the cost of copper mining very low, I certainly don't classify FCX as a gold miner... still a primary copper producer, just with a little added bonus. :)


I love volleyball !!! :)

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#36) On February 24, 2009 at 6:07 PM, Jhana9 (21.00) wrote:

Ugly to gloat on a victorious day. Very ugly. Anyone short gold over the last few months has no room to gloat, even today.

To the un-gold bugs: though I hate to admit it, you got me thinking over the last few days. I didn't like what gold was doing in the face of the latest banking problems and market drop, so I set my stops and sold early this morning. Also went into DZZ.

To Sinch: whatever gold does eventually, it sure served me very well over the last few months. I might be back to it at some point. I would never have even considered it were it not for your blogs. And just because I took my profits doesn't mean that I think your analysis will turn out wrong in the long run. I for one, will still be reading your blogs. 

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#37) On February 24, 2009 at 6:24 PM, whereaminow (< 20) wrote:


You are living proof that you don't have to understand this world to profit. Gold is up from $200/ounce in 2001. How's the S&P over that time?

The market is down nearly 50% since October. How's gold over that time?

Way to cherry pick your time frame. They used to call me a Deficit Hawk too. I love insults.

David in Spain via Qatar

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#38) On February 24, 2009 at 6:36 PM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:


I was long gold for quite awhile. I was even *gasp* long Goldcrap for awhile and scored 25 points here on a green thumb of it back in '07. Good traders adapt to changing conditions.

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#39) On February 24, 2009 at 7:07 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:


I understand completely. There are plenty of signs that near-term weakness could prevail for a bit. In the future, though, if you remain convinced of the longer-term targets, may I suggest maintaining a core position of some gold exposure and trading in and out around that core position? That way, you are covered if unforeseen developments suddenly strip all significance of TA and send gold skyrocketing to $1,500 on some huge news. The saddest thing, it seems to me, would be for a gold bull to miss out on a hige up-move. I would rather suck up some temporary losses than risk missing the next big up-move, since no one knows when that may come. 

I too shaved a bit from several of my best-performing miners over the past several days, just to raise a little cash to re-stock at lower prices if they come. If lower prices don't come, nothing is lost because it really was just a small amount I shaved off. :)

That is my personal strategy, FWIW. Good luck to you, and let me know when you get back into gold. :)


You're in Spain now? Do tell. :)

Espero que disfrute!

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#40) On February 24, 2009 at 7:29 PM, RVAspeculator (28.16) wrote:

The gold bears have had to wait 6 months to say anything. 

When they get their little pullback that is almost not visable on the chart you have to let them have their fun.   It was hard shorting all my favorite stocks in CAPS yesterday and loading up on GDX puts but the pullback is finally here.  I won't be staying on the wrong side of this one for long though!  (the wrong side being short)

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#41) On February 24, 2009 at 7:39 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:

Likely support levels on the way:


920 or 900, depending upon one's interpretation


800 is absolute lowest it can go, IMHO. That's if TA is permitted to play out to its ultimate realization in the absebce of ameliorating bullish developments for gold that would lend support to those higher suport levels. Third time is a charm in punching through to new highs, so the next time we come back up prepare to leave $1,050 in the dust and rocket to new target near $1,250 or so. I would see some resistence there once more, perhaps requiring another 3 tries to punch out again and reach $1,650 either sometime this year or next.

Good luck RVA... I am confident you will end your short positions swiftly and get back into position. I do not condone any short positions on gold, as they definitely do not fit into my risk tolerance, but for a hoot in CAPS it can be some fun. :)

Good luck!


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#42) On February 24, 2009 at 7:57 PM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

6 months, eh? That'd put us back in August/September 08. I remember September-November 08 as being a very fun and profitable period for this gold bear.

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#43) On February 24, 2009 at 8:33 PM, RVAspeculator (28.16) wrote:

Your right....  it just seems like so long ago since gold went down....  it was due for a pullback of some sort.  (Finally)

Im thinking $900 or so myself.

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#44) On February 24, 2009 at 8:54 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

I hope you don't mind me posting this here, GMX

GDX Chart updates with targets, support, and stops:

GDX 02.23.09


For longs, you're still in the green but plan, don't hope. Hope is not a viable strategy while trading or investing. Find ways to protect your asses as well as gains.

For shorts, congratulation for the relief but don't sleep on it yet. Until you book it, it doesn't count. Stay humble or the market will do it for you.

I hope this added some value to your thinking. Stay positive! Winning begins within.



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#45) On February 25, 2009 at 12:00 AM, BigFatBEAR (28.41) wrote:

Booked a mild 40% gain on my KGC put automatically today - didn't expect it to fall that dramatically (or the market to rally this much). I'm fairly happy with that.

It looks like your market timer is going to have quite a lot of catching up to do to give MLG100 a run for his money. :)

I'll give you a call tomorrow, see what's the haps.

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#46) On February 25, 2009 at 12:25 AM, biotech4ever (23.06) wrote:

This is the calm before the storm. It's going to be a slow unwinding, downward spiral through this whole year. Don't be fooled by the rallies. Gold will go crazy. 

Just how long do you think the banks and insurers can keep losing money? 10 billion here, 60 billion here. Don't listen to this crap about keeping the banks private. There will be no choice but to nationalize and the common and preferred will get wiped out and guess who is holding onto the banks preferred? Yep the insurance companies who are already fubar. AIG, Allstate and Hartford are royally screwed in the end. Citi, Bofa and Wells are all going to either fail or be nationalized. Add in the chaos from GM and it's the perfect storm with gold ending up the winner.

Overall I'm an optimist in the very long-term which is why I'm mostly green thumbs but this year will be bloody god awful.

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#47) On February 25, 2009 at 1:11 AM, Jhana9 (21.00) wrote:

I agree with biotech, this is so far from over I don't know how we are necessarily close to a bottom and gold is now doomed. I respect TA, but what about the real world? Does that count for anything?

I don't know where gold will go, but there seems to be a sudden euphoria out there now. Like one big day in the market means we're off and running to nice returns. The fundamentals still suck. How many days are we going to have where banks, housing, the bond market, inflation concerns, deflation concerns, dollar concerns, unemployment concerns, etc, etc, etc...are hitting the news and bringing people back to reality.

A week ago the Fed was saying that we won't see 5 percent unemployment for years, but today the recession "could" end this year, "IF" the government doesn't screw it up. Yeah, what could go wrong? 


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#48) On February 25, 2009 at 10:36 AM, StatsGeek (28.61) wrote:

So let me get this straight -- gold goes down for 2 days and the market rallies one day after declining for 6 in a row.  And the gold bears jubilantly think they've won the war?  Huh?

Which has more intrinsic value -- a piece of scarce metal or a little rectangular piece of paper that can be printed ad infinitum?  I guess you can't use gold in your fireplace to heat your home -- that much is true.

I just bought some $100 billion Zimbabwe notes on ebay.  Probably won't happen to the US dollar.  But it ain't impossible.

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#49) On February 25, 2009 at 10:41 AM, goldminingXpert (28.77) wrote:

Stats: the excitement is over the double top in gold which predicts at least a $200/oz decline in the spot price over the next couple of months. Double tops are fun and the upcoming profits off of our gold shorts are approaching us from the horizon.

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#50) On February 25, 2009 at 10:52 AM, StatsGeek (28.61) wrote:

All this TA is a bunch of hooey.  Maybe gold goes to $800 soon -- I have no idea and neither do you.  I don't own gold because I want to get rich.  I own it as insurance.  Shorts should be careful because as goldbugs go from 1% of the population to even 2%, gold could skyrocket.

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#51) On February 25, 2009 at 11:41 AM, GNUBEE (< 20) wrote:

GMX, you've got enough confidence for the both of us. While logical analysis should work, when hysteria ramps up irrational things happen. I hope for both our sakes, that we can cash in a bit on this fluctuation.

I'm just waiting sweaty palms an all, hoping that I'm fast enough to get a nibble of cheese, and not get caught when that trap springs.

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#52) On February 26, 2009 at 3:58 PM, XMFSinchiruna (26.58) wrote:

More of my thoughts on the topic.

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#53) On February 26, 2009 at 5:56 PM, GNUBEE (< 20) wrote:

Sinchi, can you change your article title to Next Tuesday's monster move? Please? I only need this thing to go until Monday....I am almost at Zero again.

And A side note, I don't think I ever said congrats on getting back into colored beanie territory.... Well, congrats! Good to see you've shot back up in scoring. Matter of fact NOT seeing that happen would have been a worse sign to me.

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