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Gold top 2011 is doing pretty well..

Recs

21

May 16, 2012 – Comments (52) | RELATED TICKERS: GLD

About a year ago, May 4th 2011, I made a marker player to call a long term "top" in the price of precious metals and mostly gold/silver.  I called him "goldtop11".  

Goldtop11's rating is now 99.17.  His accuracy is 85% and score is 1918 and rising.

Since I have many of his picks in my regular "rofgile" account, this has also been rising parallel to Goldtop11.  My real life investments seem to go in a different path than my CAPS over the last year, alas.

Perhaps we really did have the peak of the gold bubble in the last year, and we are now seeing a gentle deflation of the price of gold for the next decade?  September 2011 was the peak in the price, so I was a bit early still on my call of a top in gold.  And my rofgile account has been betting against gold since 2010 at least.  Much of this has been because I felt we were in an economic recovery earlier probably than the mainstream view.

My hypothesis has been that the gold bubble would pop when the economic recovery gained momentum and the fad stage of hucksters like Glenn Beck lost whatever shine they had to the masses.  It appears that the mainstream are starting to value conventional assets like houses and stocks again.. 

-Rof 

52 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On May 16, 2012 at 9:48 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.23) wrote:

Nice call on gold.

How is the economic recovery coming in your opinion? Do you think we'll be growing by 5% by the end of 2013? 

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#2) On May 16, 2012 at 11:09 PM, rofgile (99.30) wrote:

Here is my blog on "Goldtop11" from 1 year ago.

There are many comments in this blog from the normal gold and silver cheerleaders.   

---

Silver is now also near $26/ounce, down almost 50% from its peak - so I think my blog 1 year ago saying that the silver bubble had popped is pretty good.  

Comments #1 catoismymotor, #2 Jbay76, #5 silverminer, #9 ChrisGraley, #11 davidinqatar, #17 jesusfreakinco, #20 ChrisGraley <- wrong.  Silver has fallen ahead of gold, buying miners would have been a bad idea, buying more silver at $38 would have been a bummer, and I still haven't conceded that I know noting about gold/silver, thank you very much silverminer.  

 etc. 

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#3) On May 16, 2012 at 11:14 PM, rofgile (99.30) wrote:

Frankydontfailme,

 I think the recovery is so-so.  It looks like people are taking out mortgages at a faster rate.  If I had a better perspective on my future employment (like where I will be in 3 years), I would probably be putting down on a mortgage for my family too.

 I don't think we'll be growing at 5% anytime soon.  But, I think we'll have a decade of 2-3% growth in the US.  And that would be nice!

 Long term, I think Mexico, Latin America are interesting places for growth.  EU can be saved if they move quickly away from austerity.  The election of Hollande gives me hope, but Greece is a little queasy.  Merkel is too popular - I think she's been a terrible leader in the EU.  Cameron sucks in UK too.  That region needs some new thinkers quick.

 China will keep growing, why wouldn't it?  India will keep growing, why wouldn't it?  So - there will always be something good around the corner, I think.  Lets all hope we just have a peaceful world above all else.  Then lots of good can happen.

 -Rof 

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#4) On May 16, 2012 at 11:45 PM, RVAspeculator (28.85) wrote:

GLD was 149.72 when goldtop11 was created...  it now is 149.46

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#5) On May 17, 2012 at 7:50 AM, rofgile (99.30) wrote:

"September 2011 was the peak in the price, so I was a bit early still on my call of a top in gold"

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#6) On May 17, 2012 at 8:13 AM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

rofgile, I have no idea if you really made a good call on the gold long-term top, but there is no question, you made a very good 1-yr call (which I'd say is a little longer than just a short term call.

You have an excellent proof of your good call (your goldtop11 portfolio), and you got only 5 recs for this blog.

If TMFSinchiruna had a blog last night calling the bottom on the gold (without having a proof that he's right, as only time can be the judge), I'm pretty sure he would have 56 recs by now.

p.s.

Don't ever expect to hear from goldbugs that you were right (even if you have a similar blog a year from now). The closest thing you'll hear from them is that they are still confident in their long term outlook. 

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#7) On May 17, 2012 at 12:26 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.23) wrote:

#6 I'm a "gold bug" and I congratulated him on his call...

I hope he keeps his account going so we can see where it is 3 years from now.

 p.s let's see if this blog post bottom ticked gold and silver (as well as top ticked the U.S "recovery" as we can see from the Philly Fed data and continuing claims data)

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#8) On May 17, 2012 at 12:30 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

Frankydontfailme,

You are the only reasonable "gold bug" on this site, IMO.  I like gold too, but I am not super into it religiously like some people (not necessarily you).

DragonLZ,

Nailed it.  It doesn't matter if you are right or wrong, as long as you have a confident long term outlook!.  which BTW must be a lot longer than 5.5 years

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#9) On May 17, 2012 at 12:40 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

On May 3, 2011, rofgile had a blog titled "Look at the silver bubble pop".  Let's look at some of the comments:

Jbay76 said: lets look back in a year and revisit this post to see who's on the upside...I've already placed my wager. :)

I hope you placed your bets on rofgile, otherwise you lost.

silverminer (aka sinch) said : where do you come up with these notions? What will it take for you to concede that you have no idea how to properly understand the markets for silver and gold in any sort of real-world context? How many times must you attempt to call a top, and fail most dramatically, before admitting you do not understand this market?

Sinch telling somebody that they don't know how to value silver...very funny considering silver fell substantially in the over a year since he said that.  Rofgile > sinch with valuing silver.  I wonder how many times he must try to call a bottom, and fail most dramatically, before admitting he doesn't understand this market.


monksnake said : Oh no, silver is down 3 days in a row, it MUST be going below $20/ounce. 

rofgile <--- troll

I've been reading some of your responses in blogs.  You probably think Obama is a good president and that Osama Bin Laden was killed a few days ago.

This doesn't even make sense. Rofgile calls a top in silver, this guy says he thinks rofgile thinks Obama died last year.  Very emotional about silver, that cannot be healthy.

Chrisgraley said: If it falls to $38, I'm buying a ton more.

The printing presses are still running.

I like Chris Graley a lot, so I am sad to see he bought so much silver at such a high price.

David in Liberty said: lol, good luck.

Looks like rofgile does not need any luck, because he was right and you were wrong.

 

Say something bad about gold and silver , and you are rude and ignorant.  Say something bad about people who think silver and gold are overvalued, and you are righteous. Funny.

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#10) On May 17, 2012 at 12:41 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

Holy cow, 11 recs already. This is highly unusual for an "anti-gold" post.

I think some of the gold bugs are rec-ing this post just to prove me wrong / show us they are actually nice people (# of recs more than doubled since my comment).

p.s.

It looks like this rofgile's post just triggered a new massive bull market in PM miners - they are on fire today.  

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#11) On May 17, 2012 at 1:08 PM, ETFsRule (99.94) wrote:

"silverminer (aka sinch) said : where do you come up with these notions? What will it take for you to concede that you have no idea how to properly understand the markets for silver and gold in any sort of real-world context? How many times must you attempt to call a top, and fail most dramatically, before admitting you do not understand this market?"

Wow. Just wow.

I remember one time when Sinch was going on one of his tirades and insulting everyone in sight, and he told GMX that he should change his name because it was inaccurate. Maybe "Silverminer" should take his own advice. Let's look as his scores in the sector with the most picks, Metals & Mining:

Score: -1,071.04

Accuracy: 10.00%

36 Outperform

0 Underperform

And the same for TMF Sinchura:

Score: -1,652.10

Accuracy: 18.37%

47 Outperform

0 Underperform

Silverminer was started in 2008 and Sinchura started in 2005.

I have no idea how he has managed to underperform by such an incredible amount... I don't think I could achieve a 10% accuracy score even if I tried to make the worst picks possible.

I don't feel any sympathy for the guy. He is trying to act "respectful" right now because he is getting hammered by the market. But when his picks were winning, he had no problem hurling insults and ridiculing anyone who disagreed with him.

Oh yeah: congrats on the call Rofgile!

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#12) On May 17, 2012 at 1:26 PM, WolfeFrances (< 20) wrote:

like Sherry responded I am startled that you can make $5719 in 4 weeks on the computer. did you look at this site (Click on menu Home more information)   http://goo.gl/f16Va

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#13) On May 17, 2012 at 1:41 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

ETFsrule:

So would it be accurate to say that betting on a coin flip gives you much greater chance at increasing wealth than betting on sinch's silver stock recommendations?

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#14) On May 17, 2012 at 1:46 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

This is mine:

Metals and MiningScore: +334.98 Accuracy: 63.28% View: Graph Tickers 88 Outperform52 UnderperformSinch, all you needed to do was ask for me some advice, I would have gladly given it to you :)Disclaimer: I am thinking silver has hit a bottom, long or short term not really sure, but I would buy here.  But what do I know, I'm only 6.3x more accurate than the guru

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#15) On May 17, 2012 at 1:49 PM, leohaas (32.18) wrote:

Congrats! But it is a little early to start gloating. You have been right over the past year or so, but that is no guarantee that your call remains right in the future.

Since few gold bugs have responded, I will attempt to make their argument:

"Not much has changed. Many fiat currencies, especially the dollar, are still being debased. Therefore, the arguments for rising gold (and silver) prices is still valid. It won't be long before the market catches up with this reality. Only the election of Ron Paul can save us!"

OK, go ahead and feel free to reword my interpretation of the gold bugs' argument!

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#16) On May 17, 2012 at 3:15 PM, rofgile (99.30) wrote:

#10:  Thanks what you get when you spite the market gods.

I think miners are up on average 5% today across the board :)

And perhaps GoldTop11 should really be called MinerCrash11.

 -Rof 

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#17) On May 17, 2012 at 4:19 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.75) wrote:

Rofgile,

Mirroring dragonLZ's reply above, you made a very successful one-year call, and I congratulate you on that. I honestly don't even remember the full context of our prior communications over the years before that post to place my admittedly disrespectful reply in context, but clearly it was not the first time we had butted heads on the topic. I do recall, however, that a small group of CAPS members that was vocally bearish on gold and silver had attempted to call successive long-term tops and/or bursting bubbles at regular intervals all the way up. I began to lose count at the number of such failed calls on the way up, and so I did grow disdainful of such attempts.

But borrowing from leohaas' comment above, it is truly a major distinction between calling an intermediate top in a long-term secular bull market and calling an ultimate top in the entire trend. I do not consider it even remotely plausible that the 2011 highs for gold or silver will stand as long-term peaks.

You perceive a U.S. recovery underway, and I see persistent systemic risk on the horizon essentially guaranteeing further central bank intervention. It will ultimately boil down to whether consolidated responses to the financial crisis cured the underlying disease, or merely placed lipstick on a pig. Because I love my country, I hope my outlook does prove wrong in the long run, and I would rather lose every penny I've ever invested than be forced to witness the wealth destruction that I think could be on the horizon.

It's true, a lot of the bullish calls I've made on pm equities over the past year have failed to deliver in dramatic fashion, and in no way would I have considered a selloff in the mining equities of this severity even remotely possible in the context of just a $350 dip in gold. I freely concede those failures over the trailing year or so.

Over the longer term, my record remains strong. Valyoo and ETFsRule can use childish antics to ridicule my silverminer profile all they want, but it remains in the top percentile of this community with an accuracy of 78.59% even after the recent drubbing. My TMFSinchiruna profile is suffering, just as it did during the 2008 correction when it moved toward the very bottom of the pack before recovering to the top 5 percentile the following year (and where it stood as recently as January). These gold and silver markets are incredibly volatile, and that account has suffered from some other unfortunate calls outside the sector that preceded the financial crisis and subsequent meltdowns in natural gas, coal, shipping, etc.

Meanwhile, over the corresponding period, my real-life gains from a portfolio dominated by gold and silver stocks have been extremely positive. My largest allocations over the years were in the stocks I clearly wrote most passionately about, and indeed SLW and CEF combined for roughly 65% of my portfolio and carried me to outsized (booked) gains even as the sector overall has disappointed to date. I've had a slew of powerful booked multi-baggers in stocks that were not rateable in CAPS and about which I was not authorized to write because of their small market capitalizations. Copper Fox was a top 5 holding of mine from a cost basis beneath $0.20, and I booked substantial gains near $2.50 while leaving something on the table for the gains that I believe are yet to come. Rubicon was a major holding with a 2005 cost basis beneath $0.80. Taseko was a major holding from a 2005 cost basis beneath $1. Great Panther was another major holding with a cost basis near $0.80, and I booked gains at multiple points before the worst of the recent retreat. Endeavour Silver, Sabina, Rainy River, IAMGOLD, Eldorado, etc... all major positions of mine over recent years that have booked meaningful profits while selling into strength during the major breakout rallies and buying back into weakness during times like these. All the while, I have labored to help as many of my community members as possible to enjoy these sorts of gains alongside me.

The worst calls of all, in a tip of the hat to DragonLZ who pointed this out to me not long after, was the set of leveraged index shorts I picked in mid-2009 (vastly under-estimating the power of FED intervention to propel a market rally in the face of persistent fundamental headwinds and risks. So there you have it, DragonLZ, I was wrong there too. :)

In the final tally, I remain confident that my presence here has and will continue to empower members of this community to enjoy gains related to the ongoing secular bull market for gold and silver. It is not an easy space to navigate, as the recent rout will attest, but I submit that I have performed well under the circumstances in helping to enrich my readers with knowledge, well-reasoned perspective, and a steady supply of compelling stock picks.

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#18) On May 17, 2012 at 4:24 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.75) wrote:

To clarify, the second-to-last paragraph regarding the ultra-short ETFs refers back to my CAPS picks rather than my real-life portfolio.

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#19) On May 17, 2012 at 4:39 PM, TheDumbMoney2 (98.55) wrote:

I have butted heads with Mr. Barker in the past as well, but there is an unwritten rule that it's not a good idea to p!ss on traders/investors while they're down.  Call it bad karma to do so, call it whatever.  But we all will have down times and it's important not to lose sight of that.

Personally, I think gold will see $2000 before the end of 2013.  I just also think that by 2016 or so it will see $500, because by then our long term secular bear market will be over, having by that time put in a good 16 years or so.  I also think, as I have said many times, that this is why miners trade at such a "discount" -- because they are just companies, and they sell gold, and so they properly trade based on the estimated price of gold over the next ten to twenty years, which is lower than current levels.

My personal favorite model for gold's "value" shows it is very under"valued" right now relative to real Treasury yields, on a short term trade basis. 

This is all my surmise though. Because I do not fully understand how to price gold (or silver) -- or how anyone can, I avoid it in real life.  So far that has served me well.

But again, not a great idea to p!ss on Mr. Barker while he's hurting.  Bad ju-ju.  I can pull out the rhetorical knives to match anyone, but at the end of the day empathy wins.

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#20) On May 17, 2012 at 4:43 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

Sorry if this posts twice, CAPS has been eating my comments:

I began to lose count at the number of such failed calls on the way up, and so I did grow disdainful of such attempts

I think we probably all lost count of the bottoming calling on the way down, too.

You made two inconsistent statements: 1) You perceive a U.S. recovery underway, and I see persistent systemic risk on the horizon essentially guaranteeing further central bank intervention 2)

The worst calls of all, in a tip of the hat to DragonLZ who pointed this out to me not long after, was the set of leveraged index shorts I picked in mid-2009 (vastly under-estimating the power of FED intervention to propel a market rally in the face of persistent fundamental headwinds and risks. So there you have it, DragonLZ, I was wrong there too. :)

Guaranteed QE, but you didn't think the FED would prop up assets? Makes no sense. Pick one or the other.  If you believe QE leads to inflation, include equities.

Meanwhile, over the corresponding period, my real-life gains from a portfolio dominated by gold and silver stocks have been extremely positive

I have a 44045043500% year to date gain in my portfolio.  See, its easy to make things up when they can't be seen to make excuses for the terrible things that can be seen.

but I submit that I have performed well under the circumstances in helping to enrich my readers with knowledge, well-reasoned perspective, and a steady supply of compelling stock picks.

I concede that you have enriched your readers with knowledge about the silver industry.  But enRICH is a poor word, since you made them enPOOR with your portfolio recomendations (see, I can make corny jokes too).

To clarify, the second-to-last paragraph regarding the ultra-short ETFs refers back to my CAPS picks rather than my real-life portfolio.

What game are we playing on CAPS...the CAPS game, or the real life game?  I wonder if anybody does terrible at a basketball tryout and says "Well, its okay because I'm really good at football".

You continue to say that your policies are helping all of you followers, when they are clearly destroying their savings.  Sounds like you and Bernanke would be good friends :)

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#21) On May 17, 2012 at 4:46 PM, WolfeFrancesc (< 20) wrote:

what Roger answered I didnt even know that people able to profit $8070 in a few weeks on the computer. did you look at this web site (Click on menu Home more information)   http://goo.gl/gnfGJ

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#22) On May 17, 2012 at 4:47 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

But again, not a great idea to p!ss on Mr. Barker while he's hurting.  Bad ju-ju.  I can pull out the rhetorical knives to match anyone, but at the end of the day empathy wins.

What goes around comes around.  When he was right, he was the most smug, cocky, disrespectful person to anybody who disagreed with him.

I don't care that he is wrong, or that his CAPS score is shameful...I care that he and his followers act like they are currently right because they "know" they will be right in the future.  It's like Enron's accounting.

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#23) On May 17, 2012 at 5:30 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.75) wrote:

To everything, there is a season, and my how the tides can turn:

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/the-presidents-day-silver/543285

#4) On February 22, 2011 at 7:32 PM, Valyooo (99.91) wrote:

You da man Sinch

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/skeletons-emerge-from-heclas/547160

#13) On March 01, 2011 at 2:37 AM, Valyooo (99.91) wrote:

SInch, It is hard to say since I haven't seen an abundance of them, nor am I an expert....but its possible that you are the greatest silver mining anayst alive.

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/look-at-copper-fox-take-off/571173

#11) On April 08, 2011 at 11:26 AM, Valyooo (99.91) wrote:

Sinchi you must be one rich man

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#24) On May 17, 2012 at 6:25 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

Looks like I was wrong a few times. If only I could quote your entire career...

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#25) On May 17, 2012 at 6:56 PM, RVAspeculator (28.85) wrote:

HAHAHA!  Great find on those posts Sinch.  

Sinch has been bullish on gold as long as me if not longer.   Which is going back to when $1000 was just a pipe dream.  

I sold all my gold and silver miners back in 2010 (WAY  TOO EARLY) and 80% of my physical gold when it hit $1500 (the first time) and 80% of my physical silver when it hit $30 the first time (and watched both go up massively after I sold). 

 Even so I remain long term bullish on gold.   Gold will continue to outperform the S&P like it has year in and year out.   The only reason I am not in now is because I believe cash is king and everything will continue to get cheaper.  (stocks, real estate, gold, etc)

Anyway my point to this rambling post is I respect Sinch and his continually, multi-year bullish call on gold from $800 (maybe even lower) all the way to the current price of $1570 more than I respect the 1 year short call from $1550 last year to the current price of $1570.

 

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#26) On May 17, 2012 at 7:07 PM, RVAspeculator (28.85) wrote:

I will add good call on the collapse of the gold and silver MINERS Rofgile.   There was a lot of speculative juice in those guys and that has been beaten out of them.

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#27) On May 17, 2012 at 7:09 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

RVAspeculator,

Obviously Sinch should be looking to YOU for advice.

Remember when Silver hit $50 and he said "I will now reveal my secret real price target of $100" because he was scared people would think he was nuts if he said $100 when it was still at $20?  Give me a break.  When it hits $100 his super duper secrety will be $200.  He likes silver and gold and miners at every price, ever.  

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#28) On May 17, 2012 at 7:27 PM, RVAspeculator (28.85) wrote:

I hardly trade anything anymore so I am no one to give advice but I just wanted to point out that although he may have been wrong on some individual stocks he has not been wrong on the ongoing and multi-decade bull market in gold.

Pull up the 10 year chart on gold and you have to squint to see the recent correction.   Gold could pull back to $1200 before they do their next QE and it still would be in raging long term bull market.

Personally I am waiting to hear the next crazy thing out of the Fed and/or Congress before buying again but I feel confident that the policy makers will continue down the wrong path longer term.  (unfortunately)

 

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#29) On May 17, 2012 at 7:44 PM, JaysRage (88.92) wrote:

Fundamentally, not much has changed, which is generally why proponents of silver and gold are sticking to their guns.   I'm not sure why there is need to bang the drum at this point.     I have a lot of respect for silverminer.   I've seen him pull his punches more than I've seen him let loose.   Being a TMF analyst in precious metals puts him out there for a great deal of criticism, some merited, and a great deal unmerited.  

Anyone that really understands precious metals and has been watching this thing for a few years is going to yawn at the current pull back.   There are only two ways out of this thing, and it's far from over....major inflation or depression.   Major inflation makes the most sense, and it's incredibly bullish for PMs.    

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#30) On May 17, 2012 at 7:47 PM, outoffocus (22.80) wrote:

I'm glad I dont comment much on these pro-gold/anti-gold posts.  Seems like we cant really have an honest discussion about the trajectory of precious metals without the conversation devolving to needless labeling and namecalling.  Why can't we just stick to the analysis and say "I believe precious metals will fall in the near future because of this" or "I believe pms will rise in the near future because of this", post up a few charts and sing Kumbaya?  Why does it always have to be so antagonistic? "Gold bugs" this and "dollar bugs" that.  I personally am not a bug.  I'm human being.  More relevantly I'm an investor looking for areas to grow my money.   I just dont understand the divisive nature of this country.  Dems/Repubs, Blacks/Whites, Right/Left, goldbugs/paperbugs.  Maybe if we spent more time discussing issues and less time namecalling we would get something done around here. 

 rofgile

I'm invested in gold in silver but I invested so early that I'm actually still in the green despite the recent drop.  Having said that,  I kinda hope you are right about a gold top as it would signal the end of the uncertainty in the currency markets.  But as I examine the macroeconomic data my instincts say otherwise.  You are not the first to call a top in gold and you certainly wont be the last.  Simple fact is the metal is very volatile and has made a fool of a lot of "top callers".   If you are right this time, then kudos to you. 

But I would caution you and anyone else who is either pro-gold or anti-gold to stick to the analysis and leave your egos out of it.  Not saying you did any namecalling but quite a few other commenters did. I cringe everytime I hear the word "goldbug".  Why can't we just be gold investors?  Why do you have to label us at all?  Just state you case and let it be and I can decide based on who makes the best case, not on who's best at bragging and namecalling. 

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#31) On May 17, 2012 at 8:09 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.75) wrote:

Thanks RVA,

For the record...

On 11/25/06, when I added my bullish picks for CEF and SLW with accompanying long-term bullish comments like these:

http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/SLW/287658/silver-wheaton-is-a-sleeping-g.aspx

Gold was at $640 and silver was $13.50.

I had already been heavily invested in gold and silver during 2005, particularly accumulating CEF aggressively while it was beneath $6 per share. My initial core purchases occured at sub-$500 gold and sub-$7 silver.

By 2007 I was posting my price targets of $2,000 for gold and $50 for silver.

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2010/11/08/bernanke-fires-stage-two-of-the-gold-and-silver-ro.aspx

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#32) On May 17, 2012 at 8:20 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

And then your ultra secret price target of 100 came out for silver when it hit 50. When gold hits 2000 wait for the secret awesome 3000

 

Outoffocus i too hate gold bug. But it came down to name calling because any questions about gold are responded to with "I don't need to answer your stupid questions"

 

Silver and gold have done very well. The miners have not. And sinch is the first to recommend miners over physical. He owns no physical other than cef I believe

 

Cramer says gold > miners. So you'd be better listening to Cramer than sinch. How does that sound? 

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#33) On May 17, 2012 at 8:34 PM, TheDumbMoney2 (98.55) wrote:

JaysRage said:

"There are only two ways out of this thing, and it's far from over....major inflation or depression."

Respectfully, to beat a dead horse that I have been beating here for more than two years now, I still don't think that's true.  I think "muddle through the rest of the secular bear market" is also a distinct possibility you should at least consider.  I think, "undergo one more standard recession before the secular bear market ends" is another distinct possibility you should at least consider.

Separately, stagflation would be very bullish for precious metals, I agree.  But "major" inflation of 6-12%, assuming there is also significant GDP growth...., not so much necessarily. 

Moreover, I know that many here don't believe it, but the Fed cares deeply about its mandate on price levels, the independent "Billion Prices Project" largely backs up the gub'ment's  CPI calculations, and the FEd has powerful tools to achieve its mandate.  Its decisions create illusionary effects, yes, but also very real ones.  Be careful lest ideologies tempt ya'll to focus only on the illusory effects, and to ignore the real ones.

DM

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#34) On May 17, 2012 at 8:41 PM, JaysRage (88.92) wrote:

I just don't see the math working on a stay the course methodology.   The U.S. government can't pay its debt as the dollar stands.   Something has to move.    Resetting (devaluing) the dollar seems like the only realistic answer at this point since the debt is owed in dollars. 

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#35) On May 17, 2012 at 8:47 PM, Option1307 (29.70) wrote:

Rofgile, nice call thus far! +1.

I sold out of all gold/silver early in 2011 and missed the last part of the run, but I jsut wasn't comfortable with the risk/reward at the time. Although never in a millino eyars would I ahve ever bet against them, even if it was just on Caps.

Too many people get emotional about gold/silver and this includes those for AND against it. Let it go Fools, everyone has their unique interest. 

I'm not a fan of kicking Fools when they're down either, even if they've wronged you in the past. Move on and forget about it bc Karma will not be your friend and it's just not cool.

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#36) On May 17, 2012 at 8:48 PM, Option1307 (29.70) wrote:

Wow, sorry about the errors, edit fxn please!

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#37) On May 17, 2012 at 9:24 PM, HarryCarysGhost (99.69) wrote:

All I'm going to say about this matter is Sinch found some silver miners that I would'nt have researched without his help back at silver $17. My sell target of $50 was spot on so I dumped enough to make all my silver investments free to me. And I'm letting the rest ride. (perhaps $100, perhaps $10. who knows).

Seems like some solid investing advice to me, even though our price targets differed.

Thanx Sinchi.

 

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#38) On May 17, 2012 at 9:36 PM, Frankydontfailme (27.23) wrote:

TDM - yeah we could muddle through with massive intervention from the fed and Barak. This is actually the most bullish case for gold. An absolute crash and everything gets liquidated. Heavy inflation would necessitate interest rate rises as you allude to. Muddle through works for gold and silver and U.S bonds.

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#39) On May 17, 2012 at 9:57 PM, XMFSinchiruna (27.75) wrote:

Thanks to you, HarryCarysGhost! I'm thrilled to hear it.

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#40) On May 18, 2012 at 12:36 AM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

"...you made a very successful one-year call, and I congratulate you on that. I honestly don't even remember the full context of our prior communications over the years before that post to place my admittedly disrespectful reply in context..."

This was very nice of you to say Sinch, especially that your old reply was disrespectful (which many of us never do).

Actually, I'm very suprised by the nice tone of all of your comments on this post and I commend you not just for that, but for also commenting at all. After my, Valyooo's, and ETF's comments, I was expecting you will either write a not-so-nice reply or will just pass on commenting altogether.

"It's true, a lot of the bullish calls I've made on pm equities over the past year have failed to deliver in dramatic fashion, and in no way would I have considered a selloff in the mining equities of this severity even remotely possible in the context of just a $350 dip in gold. I freely concede those failures over the trailing year or so."

This is something I think sounds much better than "I remain confident in my long term outlook" (and I haven't seen you say it before). Even if one is confident in his/her long term outlook, I think one needs to admit when one was wrong. No one of us invests or makes an outperform call expecting that our pick will go down 50%. in my opinion, even if that pick eventually triples from the price when the call was made, I still think one needs to admit that his/her timing was wrong (too early). 

"...the set of leveraged index shorts I picked in mid-2009 (vastly under-estimating the power of FED intervention to propel a market rally in the face of persistent fundamental headwinds and risks. So there you have it, DragonLZ, I was wrong there too."

I never thought I'd see you say you were wrong (and you did it twice already). Back when you and I had not-so-nice discussion, that's all I was looking for: just to hear you say something like "Yes, I misunderestimated (I love this word - thank you President Bush) the power of the rally in the general market". At that time you said something like "It's too early (after less than two years) to say my call was wrong", on which I replied "How come is than not too early to celebrate your good calls on PM-related equities?"

Again, at that time, your reply sounded to me just like an excuse not to have to admit you were wrong (even if it was just short term wrong). 

"In the final tally, I remain confident that my presence here has and will continue to empower members of this community to enjoy gains related to the ongoing secular bull market for gold and silver."

I really liked RVA's reply. He clearly stated he still values your opinion and respects your calls. If people who invested based on your ideas are still happy with you, who are I and Valyooo to say otherwise.

I also would like to add, that I disagree with Valyooo and ETF about your stock-picking record. You did have a few very bad months, but the fact remains your calls prior to that were astonishing. As I said before, I've never seen someone make so many calls that were taking off like rockets as soon as you would make them.

Having said that, I also have to add that in case your picks continue to go down, or after a year have not improved significantly, I would consider you someone who makes great calls during a bull market, but fails to predict major downturns (which a lot of time kills your previously established record and hurts your followers - and I know a lot about both, btw.).

Once again, very nice comments and a great discussion on your part (as well as other gold investors' who commented so far - normally, I'd say gold bugs, but I decided to start being nice, thanks to outoffocus' remarks).

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#41) On May 18, 2012 at 1:06 AM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

"Why does it always have to be so antagonistic? "Gold bugs" this and "dollar bugs" that.  I personally am not a bug.  I'm human being.  More relevantly I'm an investor looking for areas to grow my money.   I just dont understand the divisive nature of this country.  Dems/Repubs, Blacks/Whites, Right/Left, goldbugs/paperbugs.  Maybe if we spent more time discussing issues and less time namecalling we would get something done around here."   

outoffocus, I hear you and I know I' guilty.

As you know, less than two years ago, I "urged" gold bulls and other-than-gold bulls to stop arguing in this post here . Unfortunatelly, I myself haven't listen to my own advice lately.

However, what still bugs me (no pun intended) is that I never see comments like yours (by you or some other gold investor) on the posts were gold investors are mean to the gold bears. How come, for example, you (or some other gold investor) didn't post a similar comment when monksnake called rof "a troll" just because rof was calling the top in gold. And I know there were many other hate comments like that sent toward gold bears in the past (I, for example agree with ETF that TMFSinch mistreated ETF in the past).

Why is it that we always just see when the other side is not being nice (which I'm too guilty of) and don't see when our favorites are doing the same?

I'm all for your "let's be nice to each other" call, but let's also be consistent.

p.s.

For example, TMFSinch was recently consistent when he scolded both sides commenting on his "Civilized Rebuttal to C. Munger" article. 

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#42) On May 18, 2012 at 1:06 AM, XMFSinchiruna (27.75) wrote:

Thanks so much dragonLZ! This is why you're one of my favorite members of this community. I consider you exceptionally fair-minded and even-keeled. I really appreciate your remarks.

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#43) On May 18, 2012 at 1:07 PM, ETFsRule (99.94) wrote:

"I also would like to add, that I disagree with Valyooo and ETF about your stock-picking record. You did have a few very bad months, but the fact remains your calls prior to that were astonishing. As I said before, I've never seen someone make so many calls that were taking off like rockets as soon as you would make them."

His longest-running account is TMF Sinchurina, which has been active since 2005, as I mentioned earlier. And 313 picks later, that account now has a negative score!

As we know, gold and silver have both made huge gains since 2005, and Sinch has been bullish on gold and silver for that entire time.

So, for him to actually have a negative score indicates that he must have done a horrible job with most of his calls. Maybe he overpays for stocks, maybe he buys the wrong companies, maybe his timing is just awful. But whatever the problem is, I think it is very hard to defend his record.

I think you have been fooled by his very convincing writing style, and the fact that he likes to congratulate himself on every successful pick that he makes. He is easily the best self-promoter on TMF. If you still disagree, then by all means, you are entitled to your own opinion.

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#44) On May 18, 2012 at 3:52 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

ETFsRule,

I couldn't agree more. 

I think you have been fooled by his very convincing writing style, and the fact that he likes to congratulate himself on every successful pick that he makes. He is easily the best self-promoter on TMF. If you still disagree, then by all means, you are entitled to your own opinion.

That sums up the reason I think everybody thinks he is so good.  there was a time when whenever he mentioned a stock it would rocket the next day.  But a broken clock is right twice a day.

On a side note, you are two positions ahead of me in this game on CAPS.  I like your style on here, let's see if I can beat you :)

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#45) On May 18, 2012 at 4:27 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

ETF's and Valyooo, I definitely haven't been fooled by TMFSinch's "very convincing writing style, and the fact that he likes to congratulate himself on every successful pick that he makes."

His style and his self-congratulating was the reason why I kind of turned against him a while ago. I think all 3 of us are on the same page when it comes to "how is it possible that his followers don't see it, and how is it possible that he has built such a cult-like following?".

However, I still think he was making great picks during the raging PM bull market, and as I said, "he did have a few very bad months", but sometimes that happens in corrections (if one stays invested with long term in mind). 

Just as TMFSinch said, and as you can see on his chart, he had 3,000 points just a few months ago. To say today, he "sucks" because he's down 200 points, I don't think is right. It can happen and it happens. Even to the best of us.

For example, is it right to say GMX sucked at making bearish calls because he went from 10,000+ points in 2008 to negative 2,000 points in 2009. I don't think so.

I think GMX was a great player / investor in a bear market, but not so great in a bull market.

As for TMFSinch, I said already it remains to be seen (if this correction turns into PM bear market) whether he is just a good player / investor in a bull market or a good player / investor overall (one who knows when it's time to take profits). As you know, there are not so many overall good investors. 

All in all, I don't disagree 100% with you guys, I just think it's too early to judge TMFSinch's record (and Valyooo, you know I said the same think on SN's post the other day so it's not like I'm changing my position).

What if in 4-8 months we see gold at $2500 and silver at $50-60 (with GPL at $8, BRD at $5, SLW at $70,...) would you still say TMFSinch sucks at stockpicking and makes only bad calls?

I'd say, let's wait and see...

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#46) On May 18, 2012 at 4:45 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

TMFSinch, as ETF, Valyooo and myself hav brought up this self-congratulating thing (which, btw I've done many, many times, but I'm not an analyst), here is one thing that bothers me when I read your articles.

Any time you write about silver or SLW, you say something like "and SLW is a nice fifteen-bagger since I urged Fools to pick some shares of SLW at $2.81."

Well, I haven't read your articles prior to 2009, but I did recently read some of your old 2008 posts, and it seems to me that you were recommending SLW much earlier than $2.81 (around $15 in 2008 before it plunged to $2.81).

So how is it right to say I recommended SLW at $2.81 when you actually recommended it much earlier (way too early) around $15?

Don't you think that's a little misleading that you made this great call (very near the actual bottom).

Isn't that the same as someone saying back in 2008 "Invest in stocks at Dow 10,000", then again suggested the same at Dow 8,000, and then again at Dow 6,600? Is it right for such a market-caller to say "I made this great call when I urged people to invest in the stocks at Dow 6,600?"

Please let me know what you think.

Maybe I'm misrepresenting the actual situation with your SLW $2.81 call, but that's due to me not reading your articles prior to 2009, not because I'm doing it on purpose (I also never clicked on your $2.81 link and read the actual article - maybe I would know more about your call if I did).

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#47) On May 18, 2012 at 4:48 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

Nothing negative  I said was directed towards you dragon

 

But seriously don't u think 5.5 years is long enough to make a positive score especially since the underlying sector you pump has had a phenomenal run?

 

We are 8% off the highs and GMX is 99+ 

 When sinch was up 3k he still said miners were undervalued. There is NO price at which he will say silver or gold or miners are overvalued long term. NONE. He will just reveal his super super price targets that he was hiding. 

 

 

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#48) On May 18, 2012 at 5:06 PM, dragonLZ (99.57) wrote:

Nothing negative I said was directed towards you dragon

I know that Valyooo (and don't you think I'm not going to look you up when I'm in NYC), I just want to be fair to TMFSinch and express my opinion the same way, whether I disagree with you or him.

But seriously don't u think 5.5 years is long enough to make a positive score especially since the underlying sector you pump has had a phenomenal run?

We are 8% off the highs and GMX is 99+

When sinch was up 3k he still said miners were undervalued. There is NO price at which he will say silver or gold or miners are overvalued long term. NONE. He will just reveal his super super price targets that he was hiding.

I'm not saying he didn't mishandle his portfolio (look who's speaking, I used to have 5,000 points), I just think you are a little too early (which doesn't mean you won't eventually be right) calling Sinch a failure.

Give it a few more months (or drop in gold to $1100-1200), and then we'll see whether I agree with you completely or not.

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#49) On May 18, 2012 at 7:46 PM, rofgile (99.30) wrote:

Price targets are key.

My gold "fair value" price is between $800-$1000 for 2012.  Doesn't mean that it'll reach those levels soon, but perhaps it'll be near or below $1000 within five years.

Silver, I would value at $15-20 per ounce.  I expect silver will reach its fair value quicker than gold - since more people are buying up gold on faith and promises.  I expect this range within 1 year. 

 -Rof 

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#50) On May 18, 2012 at 8:55 PM, Valyooo (99.40) wrote:

I just want to be fair to TMFSinch and express my opinion the same way, whether I disagree with you or him.

I respect that.

I just think you are a little too early

It's okay because I'm confident in my long term outlook, hahaha

 

 

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#51) On May 19, 2012 at 11:09 AM, ETFsRule (99.94) wrote:

"On a side note, you are two positions ahead of me in this game on CAPS. I like your style on here, let's see if I can beat you :)"

Thanks Val. I think you'll catch me pretty soon. I'm ahead in accuracy, but your score is way higher. Honestly, I don't put much time into CAPS anymore. I have lost my interest.

"Price targets are key.

My gold "fair value" price is between $800-$1000 for 2012. Doesn't mean that it'll reach those levels soon, but perhaps it'll be near or below $1000 within five years."

I agree, and I think this is pretty much the "correct answer" that anyone would arrive at, if they used a quantitative method based on inflation or comparision with the money supply.

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#52) On May 19, 2012 at 11:31 AM, KeithAngell (< 20) wrote:

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