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Goldcorp Forecasts Sustained $1,000 Gold Price!! "We're Going to Run out of Gold"



March 12, 2008 – Comments (4) | RELATED TICKERS: GG , NEM

Goldcorp forecasts sustained $1,000/oz gold price

Goldcorp Mining President and CEO Kevin McArthur said Monday that gold demand is so strong, “We’re going to run out of gold.”

Author: Robert Melnbardis
Posted:  Tuesday , 11 Mar 2008

NEW YORK (Reuters)  - 

Goldcorp Inc expects the price of gold to top $1,000 an ounce and stay there for a long time, a development that will allow the company to improve operating margins, Chief Executive Kevin McArthur said on Monday.

In a wide-ranging interview at the Reuters Global Mining Summit, McArthur, who is also president of the Canadian gold producer, said he thinks the price of gold, which was at $973 an ounce on Monday, is not "anywhere near a bubble."

"We are not replacing the reserves that we're mining, and yet demand continues to grow worldwide. We're going to run out of gold," he said of the global gold industry.

Higher gold prices will be the way to greater world production of the precious metal, he said.

For its part, Goldcorp, which is unhedged on gold, plans to add to reserves and boost production by 50 percent over the next five years, all while keeping a tight rein on costs.

Capital expenditures are forecast at $1.4 billion this year and $1.5 billion next year.

McArthur said said he did not expect the company to make large acquisitions in the near future.

"Almost our entire focus is on brownfield exploration right now. These are properties we gathered up over the last seven years, big properties, that are underexplored," he said.

One such property is Goldcorp's flagship Red Lake mine in the Canadian province of Ontario.

"We're finding exciting drill holes there. We expect to operate there for decades to come," he said.

Goldcorp plans to spend $150 million on exploration this year, up from $120 million last year.

The company acquired some $10 billion of assets in 2006, including its takeover of Glamis Gold, the Eleonore gold deposit in northern Quebec, and Canadian assets from Place Dome.

Goldcorp has also sold non-core assets, including its 48 percent stake in Silver Wheaton Corp last month for C$1.6 billion.

The moves have put the company's balance sheet in good shape, McArthur said.

"We've got a pretty good war chest anyway," McArthur said, referring to the Silver Wheaton windfall and a $1.5 billion revolving credit facility.

If Goldcorp were to make acquisitions, it would be in districts where the company already has assets, especially in the Americas, north of South America, he said. The goal is to build mines in areas where political risks are low and potential deposits are big.

"We will not build a mine where we won't go on holiday," McArthur said.

"In a day when it is very difficult to find employees, there is not a mine we operate where I would not ask them to move there and move their family there," he added.

Goldcorp's key assets are in Canada, Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, Argentina and the Dominican Republic.

On the question of input costs, McArthur said he thinks the upward pressure stemming from oil prices and a weak U.S. dollar is not properly reflected in conventional measures of inflation, yet are hitting the mining industry hard. (For summit blog: (Reporting by Robert Melnbardis, editing by Matthew Lewis)

4 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On March 12, 2008 at 4:31 PM, camistocks (64.42) wrote:

Yeah, Goldcorp is blooming! One year ago, almost everybody and even Rob McEwen, the former Chairmain and CEO were telling the world, that Goldcorp "overpaid" for Glamis and even cooked the books.

Rob McEwen's new company, UXG has thus far only cost shareholders money! What's up Rob?!

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#2) On March 12, 2008 at 5:59 PM, ATWDLimited (< 20) wrote:

Golds going higher still, more like $2000 or more, check my blog for analysis and charts of ratios vs the Dow, oil etc.

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#3) On March 13, 2008 at 1:58 AM, StockSpreadsheet (68.43) wrote:

I don't think we will "run out of gold" anytime soon.  There are a lot of producing mines around the world.  Also, gold is not generally destroyed by its use, (like oil is).  Most of the gold ever mined in the history of the planet is still around someplace, (in gold jewelry, gold bars or gold coins).  Sure, a lot of it sunk in the Caribbean when Spain tried to take it back to Spain when they conquered the New World, but even that is being found over the years and returned to circulation. 

I'm not saying that the price will not possibly go up in the future, but there is a huge difference between the "peak oil" argument and "peak gold", considering that oil is destroyed after production, (burnt for fuel), and gold is generally conserved, (lost jewelry, etc.,  notwithstanding). 


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#4) On March 13, 2008 at 11:09 AM, camistocks (64.42) wrote:

Craig, I think this is more figuratively speaking. He means demand will overwhelm supply.

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