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Good news on the Jobless numbers? (fools asked me to repost this)

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August 07, 2009 – Comments (15)

Hogwash.

If i was running a company right now (which i am) the first thing i would do is cut non performing/unessential personnel. 

ONCE I HAD DONE THAT IT WOULD BE NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO CUT ANY MORE PERSONNEL. Therefore my 'increase in new jobless' would stall, at least temporarily. NOT BECAUSE I WAS SUDDENLY MAKING A WINDFALL (which i'm not) but because i can't lose a single other employee without COLLAPSING. I am still in bankruptcy (also in RL), and near forclosure, i just CANNOT lose a single other worker.
    If the spending doesn't increase (my revenue i mean) i will go under, losing a 35 year old organic farm. The stall (for me) is not a indicator that i am doing well, just that THERE IS NO MORE TO CUT.


   I sell in Telluride. My customers include Woody Harrelson, Darryl Hannah, and Joe Cocker, among other notables, but even though most of my customer base is rich, the rest of my customer base is declining, while the market continues to tighten. If i sell to rich folks, i don't know how other farmers are making it.

   In conjunction, all my current employees are my highest paid ones. Inherently the average wage has gone up, and so has the number of hours.

    Any of you who lives in the real world will see this crystal clear. If I l cut two more emplyees, it's because i'm BK.

Original post

15 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On August 07, 2009 at 1:05 PM, Constructor103 (< 20) wrote:

Solar

Although we are not distressed too bad thankfully - our earnings are going to be substantial through my cuts (including my salary) this year - which will rub some lotion on the top of our balance sheet - we just hired back a Project Coordinator as we are starting to pick up a little and have become absolutely buried in paperwork from the lack of bodies.  I'm a commercial contractor who also develops mixed use projects - in Michigan so I'm not sure many can claim harder headwinds than we face here.  Granted West Mi isn't like the east side but still pretty tough here.  My condolences on your situation but if it helps we are seeing signs of life..the news coming out (like unemployment not soaring) seems to be real time experience for me.  If our little micro indication here translates into a macro indication there may actually be a little hiring going on in places.

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#2) On August 07, 2009 at 2:10 PM, lemoneater (81.74) wrote:

Solar,

All I can give you is my good wishes. On a side note, I remember having a friendly disagreement with my mother-in-law about why I bought healthy whole grain bread rather than the cheap white bread(no flavor) and I said it is cheaper than paying medical bills. While that was a simplistic answer, I do believe that food quality is important to overall health. I want organic farmers to do well.

Constructor, It is good news, indeed, if Michigan is looking up!

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#3) On August 07, 2009 at 3:17 PM, SolarisKing (57.99) wrote:

Well, for everybodies sake i hope your hope comes true, But from a macro view (global and national, etc) and from a TA view (multi year trend down, v shape recovery, etc) it seems that a small lag is not a great indicator of the bottom.

Just to be cynical,

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#4) On August 07, 2009 at 3:22 PM, ChannelDunlap (< 20) wrote:

Sorry to hear about your business, Solaris.  And not to be a douche, but if things are really that bad shouldn't you be out in the fields helping, rather than sitting inside blogging on CAPS? 

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#5) On August 07, 2009 at 3:39 PM, Constructor103 (< 20) wrote:

hope? like rainbows and butterflys?  My 8 year old twin girls live there (which is so cool b.t.w)  I know my finance and economics.  I'm not saying bottom/top/middle - T/A?  your not a floor trader or fund manager...don't focus too hard on the macro (except to check your business goals and plans) as there is nothing you can do about some bank, over spent consumer or 100 million dollar salary to a citi trader right now.  What I'm saying is that there still is a lot of small businesses putting the shoulder to it, participate and don't underestimate that effect.  I will say however that we are at some wierd inflection point and I'm not sure what it means yet...one last thing on my ramble...there are people out there with lots of money and I am thinking what we are seeing are the "30k millies" being culled which is good for everyone eventually.  Keep pluggin and just try not to get taken down with them is what this is all about right now for us small businesses.

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#6) On August 07, 2009 at 3:42 PM, RootnToot (29.82) wrote:

SK,

Good luck, I hope things work out for you.

Rec from me.

 

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#7) On August 07, 2009 at 3:44 PM, leohaas (31.85) wrote:

Sorry to hear. I like organic foods, but if I were to lose my job, that is one of the first things I would cut. Looks like you are in the wrong line of business at this juncture.

I am an IT contractor, and my recruiter today told me that things are looking up compared to Q1 and Q2 (when they were really bad). Nowhere near where things were in late 2007/early 2008, but markedly better than the last year or so.

Of course, both your and my story are anecdotal, but the latest unemployment numbers seem to be more on my side. So not exactly hogwash...

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#8) On August 07, 2009 at 3:49 PM, bigpeach (27.97) wrote:

While I sympathize with your personal situation, you can't take a single (and very small in scale) anecdote and use it refute evidence of a nationwide trend towards recovery.

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#9) On August 07, 2009 at 6:18 PM, tonylogan1 (28.00) wrote:

constructor - thank you for wasting at least an hour of my day researching "30k millies"... good fun.

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#10) On August 07, 2009 at 7:14 PM, SolarisKing (57.99) wrote:

You fools are fun.

ChannelDunlap (< 20) , Thanks. i'm sure all my challenges shall evaporate under you acumen.

 Constructor103 (< 20) , Good luck.

  leohaas (98.91), Wrong line of business? Think about what you just said: 'I like organic, but. . .wrong business'. My grandparents are organic farmers, sir, as are my grandchildren, and it is not a point of contention. I am humbled by the legacy i live inside, and i will go down with the ship, sir.

I'm not that worried about it. I'm strong, smart, good looking, and popular. I feel pretty confident that my plan is sound. Ya' know. . . eat right, get up early, go to heaven, that kinda stuff. I worry more about the masses.

Maybe i was unclear. This post is not about me. Twenty or Twenty thousand small bussineses puting their shoulder into it will not fix the problems in the world. There IS a credit problem, and a deficit problem, and a bounce is a bounce no matter how happy.

   If it bounces to S/P 2000 will not stop or fix the problem. The problems CAN be fixed, but only if we admit they are problems.

 For all i know, we could be in for a two or three year bounce, but even if it is green for a while, it has zero connection to a slowing of the acceleration of the unemployment.

 

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#11) On August 07, 2009 at 8:43 PM, buildgreen (< 20) wrote:

I am in construction. I have a biz that sells green building materials currently in northern california. Our business is all but .. who am i kidding it evaporated from january until 5 weeks ago. I had to go on unemployment and we cut everybody. The corp went on as a ghost ship and believe it or not there is now life back in the sails. While some of my key customers are bankrupt a supprising group has more business then they can handle and are indeed hiring. The core market of our biz is still mostly dead but we have found other parts of the market supprisingly active. We have a pretty solid pipeline building and (knock on wood) the year looks to have solid late summer and fall revinue potential. Not a bumper year by any means but enough to start putting more dollars through peoples hands including ours. And if even this level of activity keeps up it is very possible that we can begin the business of remaning and patching this ghost ship in the next year.

 

I hope this little bit helps someone.

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#12) On August 07, 2009 at 9:23 PM, russiangambit (29.12) wrote:

I asked Solaris to repost. I think there is an important point here that mainstream is missing. In a recession companies cut until they can't cut anymore without closing the bussiness. We are at this point. This is survival mode, in which we are going to be for a while, unless the stimulus money is enough to pull us out, though I doubt. Being in survival mode and being in recovery are to completely different things. Surivival means that the very existince of companies is at risk, recovery means that companies are looking for ways to grow. I don't see any growth for at least 2 years.

P.S.

Americans are poisoning themselves with non-organic foods. Of course, they don't notice because they don't know anything else.

Do some reading, and you'll find that cancer rates are higher in the US. Why, do you think?

Also, in my personal experience, when I live in Russia I always loose weight even though I eat more. Why? Because food is healthier, mostly organic. And we walk everywhere.

So, I do hope Solaris's farm survives.

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#13) On August 07, 2009 at 9:25 PM, SolarisKing (57.99) wrote:

I am a firm believer that everything is fine for those that shine, but i am not naive enough to think that all others are in as good a shape as you and you and me.

I know you fools are smart, so i'm not argueing with you. I'm saying that ALSO there are many more that are going BK. When we were at 47 BK banks i said "what makes anyone think that is the last one?". When we were at 54 BK banks I said the same thing. Now we are at like 67? or is it 74? 

So i ask again: Do you really think that is the last one?

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#14) On August 07, 2009 at 9:51 PM, alexxlea (66.68) wrote:

The US is a developing nation in the terms of it being subject to the corruption of the corporations and not the desires of well-intentioned and righteous people. We're constantly the last to act on various substances that are known causes of cancer and always deny conclusive scientific evidence that points to the processed foodstuffs we eat being terrible for you.

But of course large corps can't make as much money off of locally grown and organic so we're screwed.

I hope all goes well for you Solaris. 

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#15) On August 08, 2009 at 5:47 AM, MGDG (34.70) wrote:

Yes Solaris, I believe it is at 74 today. I'm sure it will be in the hundreds before everything is said and done. The point you were tryting to spark discussion on in employment, is a good one and one I hadn't considered. I look at the total number of unemployed vs employed and watch for the change in relationship between the two. 

There are still companies that have room to cut and continue day to day operations, but the strain on those still left to pick up the slack will become burdensome if they continue to work 2 or 3 positions for any great length of time.

One would have to think that the tipping point will be reached, where companies could do no further cuts and still perform day to day operations. Would it's customers accept a lower level of service, or discontinue to do business with them, thereby putting them out of business anyways from a lack of revenue.

At some point the fixed overhead costs will begin to weigh on the reduced revenue stream and downsizing those costs will be a higher priority than reducing operations. If that can be done sucessfully, they can resume workforce reductions without closing up shop.

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