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GoodVibe4Ever (< 20)

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GoodVibe Call – My green shoots and the mighty wave 3 of 3

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55

June 21, 2009 – Comments (34) | RELATED TICKERS: GRE , SHOO

Many people claim they started to see green shoots in the economy. Well, for my Technical green shoots, I haven’t seen any. The first chart in the comment section is the one and only chart any long-term investor must keep on their radar before calling a solid bottom, bull market or green shoots of any variety at that matter.

In this chart I show you two Technical indicators that rarely give a buy "cross over" or sell "cross under" signal when plotted on a long-term monthly basis. That give them great credence and reliability to capture long term trend without being effected with the noise in between tops and bottoms. Once they crossover or under, they pick a major top or bottom! They did it in 2000 top, 2003 bottom, and again in 2007 top. Sounds too good to be true, right? Look for yourself!

In the first indicator MACD, you also find green bars appearing in 2003 bottom. These are sign of bullish market developing. These are my green shoots. Once they sprout with a bullish cross over signal, the bulls are back and grazing.

Now you go and look up the chart! At 666 and after four months 40% rally and there’s no crossing and it’s all desert with no green shoots (bars) at sight! I guess it’s locusts eating my green shoots while under ground. And while you are there, take a look at the declining volume and other trusted Technical indicator in this live chart by clicking here. You see no green land in sight where the bulls can graze. We still in barren desert. Only Camels and bears can survive there.

By the way, little levity can take you a long way. I am not making fun of the bulls here. I actually still think that we have another shot to top 956 but will take one day at a time and monitor the situation and report to you as soon as I see any oasis for the bulls to take shelter at instead of the mirage we've been running towards relentlessly.

Last part of this blog...

Let me bring to your attention our latest “GoodVibe community call” if you missed it. It still in effect and is getting better. Last month @ S&P 882 we called for a new move up to above 930, followed by another call in June for a fresh new rally high to above 950, which we followed in June 11 by a live call (Comment 10) for an imminent top @ 955.69 just one minute before the exact top of 956.23 followed immediately by another call for an imminent decline from that top. After we temporarily bottomed @ 903.78 we called for another incoming mini counter rally to the previous decline, which we had last Friday.

Now we are calling for another imminent decline from current 921.23 that according to EWP is considered the largest move in any wave, wave 3 of 3 at any degree of the waves. It’s an awesome wave comparing to the rest, a beauty to be held (bullish or bearish) where most of the gains or losses occur. The one EW Technicians hunt for like storm chasers hunt for the perfect tornadoes. This is where we stack our most dough in expectation for large gains in rapid fashion.

Please, check the second chart below and click here to read this blog and comment #7 for detailed explanation of this call. You can follow the latest update to this call as well by checking this post where we add the recent charts and analysis in the comment section and we also chart our calls live in the lounge (Blue comment - click watch now).

That said, we have line-in-the-sand physical and psychological numbers when once Mr. Market crosses, we take our capital off the table and reconsider our charts. This is a plus. BIG plus! We are the masters of our fate. We hit many jackpots when we are right or fall on our swords with grace and dignity when Mr. Market desires so. We don't need to wait for the news, insider information, cheating, Steve jobs' health development, or heaven forbid wait for the next earning report to find out that they screwed big or fired their CFO because he was cooking the books or had no books to begin with.

Let me add something here of importance. These calls are posted ahead of the actual action unlike some who like to claim that we just predict what happened, which is an oxymoron statement in itself if not laughable. Also, we always see both sides. What we do is only call for a possible scenario or a setup according to a set of well-known rules based on EWP and other Technical indicators. This setup is always made with stops in mind where we can protect our capital, lock gains, or minimize losses if and when our best scenario comes to be wrong.

Also remember that EWP and TA doesn’t prefer bullish or bearish scenario but instead play with winners at the time of the call. Also it covers all time frames including very short, short, medium, long and very long term range. You can pick your favorite range depend on your favorite investing/trading style as well as risk tolerance among many other things that you should consider before embarking on self-directing investing/trading.

If TA or EWP are not your cup of tea, please don’t refrain from our community. Some of us squarely don’t believe at all in EWP and some make their own trades without using TA! They are regulars in our community and they add to us. If you believe you have something of value to add to our thinking including a rational and unbiased critique of what we do, please get in and you will always find a welcoming ear as well as helping hand if you desire one but please read this first if you didn't before. We aspire to inspire ourselves to build, add, or make positive change in our lives and the lives of our loved ones. Diversity strengthens our community and adds more value to our thinking and decisions.

               I wish you a pleasurable day and profitable week, all year long!

GoodVibe

34 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 21, 2009 at 5:05 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart one: S&P TA Green Shoot "The real deal"

GV - S&P Green shoots

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Chart 2:
Latest "GoodVibe Community Call - Wave 3 of 3"

GV - SP count mini 06.20.09

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#2) On June 21, 2009 at 5:05 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

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#3) On June 21, 2009 at 5:51 PM, anticitrade (99.66) wrote:

AdrirondackFund, I have certainly had my share of misunderstandings with EWT and its followers.  Your post has actually helped me understand why they have a tendancy to react defensively.  Your comment is inappropriate and ruins your own credability.

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#4) On June 21, 2009 at 5:52 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

That was one of the most disturbing comment I ever read in my trading life and on caps. Please don't respond until we see where is he coming from exactly.

GoodVibe

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#5) On June 21, 2009 at 6:08 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Adrion - Would you please step in the lounge so we can understand where you are coming from. You insulted great deal of people and I don't want this to go beyond the mutual respect we hold for one another, let alone distract us from trading and what we are doing here. I need to go back to work. I am here for another half an hour. If you didn't catch me, please, hold your thoughts or talk to Anchak until I talk to you. You know I never talked to you before beyond Hi and welcome!So I really can't tell what's happening before listening to you. Thanks!

GoodVibe

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#6) On June 21, 2009 at 6:18 PM, c0ld (< 20) wrote:

Nice post GV.. enjoyed it but never have heard of a Desert Bear before :)

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#7) On June 21, 2009 at 6:46 PM, AdirondackFund (< 20) wrote:

Went to the lounge, nobody there, nobody paying attention.  This you call credability???

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#8) On June 21, 2009 at 6:51 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

Adi......I will let you in....hold on...we are on Lounge 11 and not 10

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#9) On June 21, 2009 at 6:54 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

I apologize....we are all there in the new one -- sorry to have missed you looks like.....I'll on possibly .....and I always allowed you

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#10) On June 21, 2009 at 6:54 PM, AllStarPortfolio (27.53) wrote:

I would encourage GV lounge users to be extra careful about such events as Adirondaks. I have seen events on the lounge that made me pause.
   It is likely that most insults are delivered without contemplation of the reprecussion. The person (quite high ranking in the GV lounge) who insulted a player (that i witnessed) was "trying to help", and when that player pointed out that their feelings were involved, the antagonist just insulted the player again, calling him names for wanting advice to be given with courtesy.
   Though the advice was good, the long term affect of insulting players in public is similar to insulting the public. It will eventually chill the atmosphere to the point that a few buddies will be chatting alone.

   I know that ideas are delivered with passion, and that most folks don't mean to cause alienation, but i have seen it myself, and caution the GV lounge community to be very careful. It is a very useful resource and it would be a shame to see it's effectivenss diminished

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#11) On June 21, 2009 at 7:49 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

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#12) On June 22, 2009 at 12:10 AM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

"Now you go and look up the chart! At 666 and after four months 40% rally and there’s no crossing and it’s all desert with no green shoots (bars) at sight!"

But that "desert" seems to be shrinking which would make it appear that there is "green" in the future, hence a further runup no?

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#13) On June 22, 2009 at 12:40 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

"....Which would make it appear!"

That's the secret word. Don't take appearance for reality.

Notice awalle that in 2003 once the black line crossed over, equity prices rose, and the next month a green bar appeared followed by another consistently. Now let's look what happened since March.. Equity prices rose for consecutive four months without even the disappearance of the yellow bars let alone the appearance of a single green bar! And still we didn't cross over.

That means we have great chance for more decline and possible break for 666. Same happened in 2002 false rally. We closed in the gap but then widen it back again when stocks kept falling more.

You didn't jump in for buy & hold until you see complete cross over in both indicators and see at least one green bar. This is 95% clear confirmation that we bottomed and there's more gains to come. 

That doesn't mean we can't rally first before we fall, it just tell us that 666 now has hard time to hold either from here or from little bit higher. That said, If we decide to cross, then I will take all my bearish bets off the table and join the bulls, which I greatly doubt will happen anytime soon. This is a monthly call that will take months to work out its way. So no one should confuse it with tomorrow's call.

I hope this helped you and some others.

GoodVibe

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#14) On June 22, 2009 at 12:50 AM, awallejr (85.43) wrote:

The chart I am refering to is the one where you have the two "?"  When I look at it, it is showing a decreasing "tan" line.  With that in mind it does appear that it will cross over into green assuming the pattern holds true.  Just my observation for whatever it is worth.  It is of course possible that it will dip down again and stay tan until 2011.

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#15) On June 22, 2009 at 1:12 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

awallejr - That's fine! I just wanted to clarify for others who might think to jump in before the cross thinking it will eventually cross! This indicator doesn't work UNTIL we have a decisive cross and at least one or two green bars. This gap can keep drifting far more than anyone believe taking your entry price no matter how cheap is yours to even lower prices.

Thanks for your comment.

GoodVibe

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#16) On June 22, 2009 at 1:18 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

still riding the 20 DMA: 1,2,3,4,5.

sort of ...

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#17) On June 22, 2009 at 1:21 AM, PrestonCheek (31.67) wrote:

GV, thanks for the charts and I hope you  have a great week to come.

 

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#18) On June 22, 2009 at 12:14 PM, tonylogan1 (28.12) wrote:

rec 35. Go Bears! (not the Chicago Bears)...

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#19) On June 22, 2009 at 12:50 PM, salvadorveiga (23.11) wrote:

awallejr, no... those lines can close the gap between them and never cross.... they just revert back to the mean and drop some more then...

 So although they'r epointing up one should not antecipate the outcome 

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#20) On June 22, 2009 at 1:49 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Please check this blog? Check out my comment as well as Anchak. That was the topic of my next blog but I put my thoughts on Tasty's blog instead.

GoodVibe

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#21) On June 23, 2009 at 8:35 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

what is the most likely action (up or down) you see today GV??

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#22) On June 23, 2009 at 9:15 AM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

and what makes you think we see 965 again before we start down

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#23) On June 23, 2009 at 3:03 PM, anchak (99.85) wrote:

GV.. a little freakish corrective pattern now it seems. Looked initially like a 5th failure.....can this be all a 4th  - with 5th to come...... Or is it going to shoot up from here and clear 901 is a microscale 3 wave action?

 

 

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#24) On June 23, 2009 at 5:30 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Anchak, I missed your post. I forgot you don't have access to the lounge from work! My bad. We updated the chart live in the lounge but I bet you didn't see it. Not much of new data and little consensus. I believe it's just a triangle that aims to more downside but no conformation yet. You will see them later tonight.

Rebkong1 - It's all about TA why I believe we might still have a chance to go up more AFTER we finish going down from 956. Although I have long term views, I don't like to go that far. At this time, I take one week at a time and communicate them accordingly. EW help me do this. Stop by sometimes to see how we think things and hopefully soon you will be able to call the shots yourself.

Also for the daily action at this time, we don't have decisive direction (it's choppy) but we have stops for our short positions. Once we have a new final chart of a target or we see a clear bottom, we will post it here. So far, the trend is still down and the trend is your friend and believe it or not, that trend can take us down more than even my wildest predictions can call for.

I hope this helped.

GoodVibe

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#25) On June 24, 2009 at 4:56 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

a comparison of nasdaq 100 january 1987 (grey) and s&p 500 march 2009 (green) rallies

for explanation see this post. it might be advisable to read that post in reverse order ...

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#26) On June 24, 2009 at 5:34 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Hans - I know that you will have hard time explaining things in human form :) so I will ask Anchak to do this unless you can write more than numbers and give the "common man" a pitch with the chart. I have some guess about what you were both trying to do and I've been following (in the background) that blog you linked to and waiting for an outcome, but I will not dare to call what you reached. So, please step in and tell what's your "home made" MA [PortAnck MA] means. Thanks!

PS. I hoped that more Math Fools joined you in your blog, unfortunately no one did!  

GoodVibe

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#27) On June 24, 2009 at 6:27 PM, TigerPack1 (98.39) wrote:

portefeuille-

Correct me if I'm wrong, but regarding your 1987 vs. 2009 chart comparison, didn't 1987 end kind of badly for investors.  Are you looking for the market to tank later this year now?

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#28) On June 24, 2009 at 7:09 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

I will be adding some more charts, but I don't think they will be useful to make any long-term predictions. I just noticed that all the logarithmic charts of stock indices showed rallies that looked like c*t^b, with 0 < b < 1 (I have written c as 1/a, but only to make it look nicer (c is smaller than 0.1), there is nothing to it.). Actually that is nothing but a fancy way of saying that the rallies are strongest at the beginning and then "peter out", just like anchak wrote in comment #33 here.

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Basically the initial piece of the rally happens at faster pace which is why the curvature of the ploynomial fits

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The first "run-up" is close to a straight line (the first 5-10 trading days) which means more or less constant relative changes from day to day and thus exponential growth for the index. And then, well, it fizzles out. There is really nothing more to it, I am afraid ...

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#29) On June 25, 2009 at 1:54 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart update:

GV - SP count mini 06.25.09

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The stops area will depend on your entry points, risk tolerance, and YOUR plan but I will say that staying short above 927 is way too risky per this count. On the other hand, adding to shorts below 888 is good risk/reward trade for a sizable decline.  

Bulls and bears - Win, lose or draw! Good traders know how to make money but great traders know how to take a loss.

I hope this find you well.

GoodVibe

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#30) On June 25, 2009 at 1:44 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

blank_page

Update - If you can't access the lounge for some reason know that I am still holding my shorts @ current 920.

GoodVibe

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#31) On June 25, 2009 at 2:22 PM, alexpaz (28.96) wrote:

Good vibe- I am holding my shorts, also. Short EDC @ 75 and TYH @ 87...Do you have any opinion on the US dollar? 

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#32) On June 25, 2009 at 2:35 PM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Russell2000 Update:


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#33) On June 25, 2009 at 2:37 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

I took a stab a new count looking at the bigger picture (15 day) and think this looks pretty good. We stopped at the 50% retrace + the parallel resistance line.

 RW-SPX15day

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#34) On June 25, 2009 at 7:26 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

The New post. Please comment in the lounge (12) or in the new post. Thanks!

GoodVibe

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