GoodVibe4Ever (< 20)

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GoodVibe4Ever's CAPS Blog

GoodVibe Call - The anatomy of A top

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June 10, 2009 – Comments (52) | RELATED TICKERS: GS , AAPL , FAZ

This is a quick post I wanted to pass to you. We have a very good risk/reward spot here of where we are going next. See the chart below.

If we break the black line @ 923.85, the market is a sell. Also, going to 970ish is another spot to sell. This spot has great chance to be a MAJOR top.

If you believe we are going up, then this is your chance to buy with tight stops @ 923.85 or 912.78.

Current 932.57

I hope this adds some value to your thinking.

GoodVibe

52 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 10, 2009 at 3:19 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Enlarge

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#2) On June 10, 2009 at 3:19 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

<a rel="nofollow" href="http://www.coveritlive.com/mobile.php?option=com_mobile&task=viewaltcast&altcast_code=83f6370f00">GoodVibe Community Lounge 10</a>

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#3) On June 10, 2009 at 3:23 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Check out also specific trades from here.

GoodVibe

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#4) On June 10, 2009 at 7:17 PM, anchak (99.87) wrote:

My friend..... I was 24 hr earlier on this on my comment on CIL...based on your observations on the horsemen ...and I see Russ putting up the NDX today.

Something important is coming.....lets watch carefully.

Still the 923 break is critical

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#5) On June 10, 2009 at 9:42 PM, TigerPack1 (73.61) wrote:

850-860 is the MAXIMUM S&P500 downside, if we continue to follow my 1975-like pattern in the market.

I suspect the summer will not be very exciting on either the downside or upside for the "averages," and that's how I am playing it in this game.

My best trade idea and CAPS position right now continues to be shorting (selling) or red-thumbing gold and silver assets. I have dumped most of my gold and silver hedges the last week, and purchased some DZZ (double-short gold) in my IRA in the real world. I think I have around 60 CAPS bets on gold going down currently.

Goodvibe - you continue to have the best CAPS blog and research "sub-section" on this website. Keep up the great work! Maybe one day, TMF will pay you some money for all your effort.

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#6) On June 11, 2009 at 11:32 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart Update:

Enlarge

Current 949

GoodVibe

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#7) On June 11, 2009 at 12:25 PM, TigerPack1 (73.61) wrote:

I am selling all the stock mutual funds in my wife's 401k today and moving it to cash. I think I will be able to rebuy the long exposure in a month or two at a 5%-10% discount to the current pricing.

I have been "deleverging" a little at a time since the first week of May. At that point, considering all the double long ETF exposure and fully-invested stance in all my IRA and 401k accounts I was probably around 120-130% net long invested from late-January to mid-May, and the vast majority of that was in high-beta stocks (junk stocks according to GMX).

After today, I will still be net long at about 75% of total assets with a heavy dose of safer blue-chips, 5% in various hedges and 20% cash. I am not looking to sell additional exposure in the near future, and hopefully will ADD stock positions in late-summer and the fall months in preparation for another strong upmove in late-2009 and early 2010.

Today's flip from down to up in the long-term 30-year Treasury bond interest rate trend has me a little worried. For the first time in a while the 30-year rate of interest is HIGHER than 1-year ago. This is a great indicator for the stock market and often this interest rate trend change marks an important moment for the averages historically speaking. A 5%-10% drop in the S&P500 from 950-960 back to 860-890 looks more probable today than a week ago.

I am also hearing the tick-tock of the clock as it expires...for gold's glory days.

-Tiger Out

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#8) On June 11, 2009 at 12:34 PM, anchak (99.87) wrote:

Let me say I predicted this first ( check back on a blog about a month back - I think porte's) .......unless stock market does a frenzy from here - Tiger will reach CAPS #1 before Ultralong.

However,looks like both hedge - but do not do that in CAPS. Tiger one pick won't hurt - you know. I told this to Porte also - and he listened.

I agree the Long term movement is becoming onerous now

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#9) On June 11, 2009 at 1:06 PM, portefeuille (99.73) wrote:

Let me say I predicted this first ( check back on a blog about a month back - I think porte's) .......unless stock market does a frenzy from here - Tiger will reach CAPS #1 before Ultralong.

I remember that. I still think I am not out of that race (was #2 about a month ago). Currently I am #2 "outperform" player (new "top10" list). And #6,8,12,13,16 (hehe ...) ...

However,looks like both hedge - but do not do that in CAPS. Tiger one pick won't hurt - you know. I told this to Porte also - and he listened.

See comment #12,16 here. Actually I hedged and then you commented on that move. I think. Inessential, I know ...

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#10) On June 11, 2009 at 1:29 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Alert -

Will 956 be THE top? We have a possible top RIGHT now according to the wave minimum length.

Current 955.69

GoodVibe

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#11) On June 11, 2009 at 1:35 PM, anchak (99.87) wrote:

Hans my friend.....you'll set the record on CAPS someday ( I think you already have by having 3 in Top 10) - with 3 in Top 5 with Top 1.

Timing will matter.....infact I think the current hedge with Ultras and Healthcare is good. Tiger's betting the farm in CAPS on gold - and that's what possibly could vault him if it comes thru.

As I said you guys are both my favorites - and there are different reasons why.

Tiger's a tad too much bullish - but he might claim he has more experience ( which proabably is true) - hence perspective.

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#12) On June 11, 2009 at 1:36 PM, atarigod (< 20) wrote:

GoodVibe, are you still holding put with your ZSL call? I have a stop in at $7.00 for it.

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#13) On June 11, 2009 at 1:48 PM, portefeuille (99.73) wrote:

I think portefeuille currently has no Ultras. Just one "underperform" on VW (VLKAY.PK). If there is one (major) stock that could easily double on news it is Porsche. They still have those call options on about 1/4 of the VW shares. Plus they have around 51% of the VW shares. Plus they have some 10B EUR in "net debt". I am just waiting for one headline SWF ... (insert name here) buys VW calls from Porsche. For say 10 or 15B EUR. That would leave Porsche with 51% of VW, no net debt and the Porsche production. That would be a 100% up day. Don't know why I mention this here, but I guess it was because I checked whether portefeuille is currently short anything and now I have written too much to delete it.

Anyone wants to do the Elliott wave thing for Porsche (1)? But after the 100% jump that might become irrelevant (hehe again).

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#14) On June 11, 2009 at 1:56 PM, portefeuille (99.73) wrote:

For say 10 or 15B EUR.

For say 10B EUR. They have never said what the strike of those calls is, but they should not be worth more than 10B EUR, especially since "everyone" knows that VW is "overvalued" currently. Being short VW would still be very risky (outside the "caps" game). Have a look at the "mother of all short squeezes" here.

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#15) On June 11, 2009 at 2:11 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Enlarge

Current 951.55

atari - As I outlined in my pitch, I am following silver spot not ZSL as a spot. I actually added today to ZSL in my largest scale into the position. Read again here, please.

GoodVibe

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#16) On June 11, 2009 at 2:18 PM, anchak (99.87) wrote:

GV...Our counts are the same - Wave is proportional .....shot up on lower vol ...characterisitic of 5th....

That being said lets hold this back till 944 break....start thinking about it....while it break 927 ( this 5th just brought up the level)....

We need to ensure this is not a 2.

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#17) On June 11, 2009 at 2:20 PM, atarigod (< 20) wrote:

Thanks GV!

So far, your posts have been the best I have run across so far. You have a lot of really good information out there.

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#18) On June 11, 2009 at 2:21 PM, anchak (99.87) wrote:

Porte..FXP is a mistake then?

I did undertstan why you had the Volkswagen short....being from there - you understand the possibility and the dynamic of the situation better

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#19) On June 11, 2009 at 2:22 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Anchak - Agree. This is why there's a (?) on the chart but all in all it shouldn't be far from here.

GoodVibe

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#20) On June 11, 2009 at 2:39 PM, portefeuille (99.73) wrote:

Porte..FXP is a mistake then?

I am sorry. I knew I had that one but somehow could not find it, so I thought it must have been one of my other players ...

No, that was no mistake. But that is not really a hedge because I have little "china exposure" (I think ...). I just think they might fall a little.

I did undertstan why you had the Volkswagen short....being from there - you understand the possibility and the dynamic of the situation better

maybe. That good old home bias. I have some more in "my list" but never checked whether those calls have done better than those on U.S. stocks.

I think you should write another (1) œuvre on "options and stuff".

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#21) On June 11, 2009 at 4:01 PM, PrestonCheek (33.40) wrote:

GV, thanks for the chart.

I hope you are doing well.

Preston

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#22) On June 11, 2009 at 6:12 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Hans - I remember that day very well. Even rumors were going around that GS people were shorting the stock and they had to sell their GS shares (GS was down sharply that day) to cover VW. Later we knew who were getting squeezed to death (no pun intended).

For the EW chart you requested, why don't you try it. Although I know you don't buy it much, I know you like a challange. Here you got one.

Tiger - I was happy that this rally did you justice. It was long waiting for you. I hope you traded it well in RL as you did in Caps. Your timing was very good on almost all trades. You also know where I stand about gold, silver, and miners. I believe miners and silver short are better reward than gold, though.

Last note - Be aware my friend, never trust the over bullish mentality that has been running a mock in the street for the last 30 years even if we go back up again. Stay defensive, it's your retirement money, I believe. I know you've been trading many years before me but I hope I proved to you the gravity of the situation Since the top in 2007. I don't know how you think of things now but I see you still over bullish if you are going to buy again (unless you are willing to let go at one point instaed of B&H for ever). You still believe we are going back to 15K soon?

Thanks for your constant kind words and cool character and thanks for inviting me to Caps. It was a pleasurable expierence.

And please guys, stop talking about who is gonna be number one or ten. This is where jeoulesy and hate blogs come from. These ranks really make no sense whatsoever and many SMART people in this top list know they can't match their performance here in Caps in real life and they don't let it go to their heads. Try to focus on who is offering some value that can add something to others. Many people here should be there on that "value list" instead of that other "no value" list. And I am not talking about including myself there. :)

GoodVibe

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#23) On June 11, 2009 at 10:18 PM, RootnToot (30.19) wrote:

I appreciate your perspective. Welcome back GV.

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#24) On June 11, 2009 at 10:34 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

I still think we are following the 2003, 6 month recovery rise that took us to a new high in 2003, from a huge 18 month drop. I think we will reach SPX 1008 early this summer, before the end of June and if quarterly reports are postitive for this quarter (4 weeks from now), we may see another 20 to 30% run up from here in July.

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#25) On June 12, 2009 at 12:14 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Root - Thanks! But I was always here (actually more than I should). :) You know we use few blogs now while using the lounge chat room to communicate our thoughts, right? And last month I didn't find something of value to share in a new blog but when I found a good setup, I posted this blog. I hope it added something to you.

Eco - So, no Mack truck for you any more? I still remember that quote of you. I still believe we have more to go based on my March call for the S&P target rally of 1000 - 110. But from here to there, It makes sense to pause or we will make things worse.

For the parallel between now and 2003, I know this is a theory going around the street and pushing the bulls higher in hope it happens again. History can rhyme but never repeat itself. 2003 was a different story altogether.

GoodVibe

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#26) On June 12, 2009 at 12:23 PM, portefeuille (99.73) wrote:

Hi there. I think the Novartis charts (USD and CHF) look quite interesting. See comment #5 here ...

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#27) On June 12, 2009 at 12:43 PM, DEALWITHTHEDAY (38.47) wrote:

Thanks for the chart and the information. I have been wondering about 970 and what it would to to cross. The side ways moving of the market has me wondering of a drop.

The question I have is Catalyst. There are many factors that can be taken into consideration for up or down but it seems right now they are not in play. What type of catalyst do you see to drive the market either way.

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#28) On June 12, 2009 at 3:57 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart Update:

Enlarge

Deal - My MAIN catalyst is technical in general, which shown above in hard numbers on the chart. I use TA indicators and EWP among other tools, if you are not familiar with my blogs. I will leave FA to people smarter than myself if you were looking for an answer from this side.

Hans - I answered your chart question in the lounge. I gotta run now. You can check it there. It was just after you left today.

Hope this find you and yours as much as you wish to find yourselves and maybe a little bit more.

GoodVibe

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#29) On June 12, 2009 at 4:13 PM, portefeuille (99.73) wrote:

Hans - I answered your chart question in the lounge. I gotta run now. You can check it there. It was just after you left today.

Thank you.

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#30) On June 12, 2009 at 5:41 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Hans - Usually I don't take chart requests but I did your NVS for three reasons:

1. You are special and talented and other Caps' players (at least myself) should reward you in some way (if you think of my chart as a reward).

2. I want to bribe you in some way so you can stop by the lounge more and share your goodies with us. No obligation though. Be forewarned, it's addictive. :)

3. The chart matches what I was talking about and charting in the lounge for resistance lines, trend lines, channels, and the kind of other funny lines I draw on my charts ;) and how you can trade them both ways. Your chart gives a good example.

Enjoy it but don't expect any more! You do yours next.

Enlarge

Now, off to my weekend.

GoodVibe

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#31) On June 12, 2009 at 7:01 PM, atarigod (< 20) wrote:

GV,

I want to thank you for writing about the Silver short trade in your blog. I agreed 100% with all the points you made as to why you are bearish on Silver. I know you wrote about the price at which you would get out and revaluate the trade if the spot price broke 16.50 on the upside, but I was wondering if there was also a bottom in the spot price you would get out of the trade?

Thanks for turning me on to your blogs.

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#32) On June 13, 2009 at 12:57 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

#6: there's a gap at the 920 level that could indicate a false bottom as the markets correct downward. It's seems logical that we'll see the gap covered with a reversal up from that level before a truer picture unfolds.

The average investor is likely to take the "end of the recession" news as a Buy and drive the markets higher in a couple of weeks so this dip may be the only one we'll see until much later this year.

Some traders in the news have been looking for a dip to the SPX 820 level to feel "ok" with the March bottom but a 100+ point drop will require a catalyst and it's unlikely we'll see one until next year. I for one am hoping this is the case and hope we decisively break out of the down channel that's clearly shown by a weekly view of the SPX from Oct. '07 to the present.

Trying to project what will occur is silly but we are over the 3 month duration that typically reverses for 6-12 weeks.

My 2 cents for what its worth.

Best Regards, IIcx

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#33) On June 14, 2009 at 11:28 AM, portefeuille (99.73) wrote:

#13 They still have those call options on about 1/4 of the VW shares.

Actually it is about 20% now (see here). Some news on Porsche: 1,2,3,4,5.

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#34) On June 14, 2009 at 11:30 AM, portefeuille (99.73) wrote:

Thank you for the chart analysis, goodvibe4ever!

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#35) On June 14, 2009 at 7:16 PM, crystlz (52.89) wrote:

This call should be viewed with the knowledge that this ticker is my biggest loser in real life (long) and in CAPS (short). Having said that, it does seem like and EWP moment in that a ABC or 12345 move is underway and depending on which way it goes there will be $$ to be made either way.

What made this stock attractive to me in the beginning was the dividend that kept going up year after year. After the TARP money propped up the bank this dividend was supposedly stuck at $.01 for years. As has happened many times since November, 08 the rules may change again and somehow this stock can continue to climb.

peace

ENLARGE

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#36) On June 14, 2009 at 10:54 PM, Tastylunch (29.26) wrote:

BINVE this goes along with you and TigerPack's pullback expectations (well everybody's it seems)

http://pragcap.com/a-seasonal-peak-in-yields

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#37) On June 15, 2009 at 3:34 AM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Hey Everybody

I just published a new blog post

Market Thoughts and Analysis: The Gold Blog. Gold/Silver/GSMs (and a little Oil for good measure)
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=212735&t=01008419310939784033

Please feel free to check it out. Thanks!

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#38) On June 15, 2009 at 10:09 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

New post. I had to! :)

GoodVibe

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#39) On June 15, 2009 at 12:46 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart update:

Enlarge

All three supports mentioned in the last chart from Friday were broken. Last hope is left for the bulls to slow down the fall at the lower side of the channel shown in the chart. Whatever comes from here to the upside (if it comes at all) I predict to be a counter move before more downside to come from here.

PS. I lowered my stops to 946 from 970 just in case.

Current 923.5

Be happy!

GoodVibe

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#40) On June 15, 2009 at 1:09 PM, atarigod (< 20) wrote:

GV, did you see my prior post about the SLV?

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#41) On June 15, 2009 at 9:39 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

I saw it atari and I would like you first to read this blog and tell me when do YOU believe you should sell ZSL? :)

GoodVibe

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#42) On June 16, 2009 at 8:20 PM, salvadorveiga (24.55) wrote:

Hello?

Where is the lounge ? lol

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#43) On June 16, 2009 at 8:25 PM, jimmybroderick (< 20) wrote:

salvadorveiga

Up in comment #2 of the blog you should see something that says GoodVibe Community Lounge 10. Play button in the middle if it doesn't autoload.

Jimmy

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#44) On June 16, 2009 at 8:40 PM, JibJabs (79.23) wrote:

GV how low do you anticipate this decline to go? I'm looking for another entry point- was arbitrarily thinking around 840 or so.

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#45) On June 17, 2009 at 12:19 PM, Ecomike (< 20) wrote:

"Eco - So, no Mack truck for you any more? I still remember that quote of you. I still believe we have more to go based on my March call for the S&P target rally of 1000 - 110. But from here to there, It makes sense to pause or we will make things worse.

GoodVibe"

Well right now I am in intensive care from the current Mack truck hit. Limping along here still trying to pick up some of my marbles.

Several of my stock picks bucked the trend the last 2 days, but not enough to avoid losses. I was expecting a correction this week simply because it is triple witch week. I am still hoping for (expecting) a violent up swing before the end of the week due to options expiration, but it maybe wishfull thinking. I am still long, and staying long with my carefully researched stock picks, as I am convinced they have much higher to go this year, and I do not have the time to watch and trade.

Interesting to hear that others see the paralell to 2003. I came up with that one on my own based on my own charting research, and you are the first I have read to confirm that others see it too. Interesting to hear that you do not beleive history repeats itself. Sounds contradictory to the entire EWP!

It has been my experience reading history that it often repeats itself, although with supptle differences.

Interesting to see the NVS chart here as I bought some recently well before I read this post, and have it on my radar to buy more this year.

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#46) On June 17, 2009 at 11:49 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Hey just checking back in tonight, has the CIL died? I can't login up there or as a producer? Anybody else having problems?

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#47) On June 18, 2009 at 12:31 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Enlarge

Please read annotation on the chart

Hope this find you well!

GoodVibe

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#48) On June 19, 2009 at 7:08 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart Update

GoodVibe

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#49) On June 19, 2009 at 9:04 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Today, we still don't have a clear winner but definitely the bears got a card up their sleeves for the bull come Monday.

Enlarge

According to the map we drew before the open today and saw it folding to a T:

The best winner was the timid (patient) bear as well as the aggressive one who picked bears' scenario 2 and shorted between 923.71 and 929.90 (927.09 was today's high and the close 921.23). They can sleep little better over the weekend than the aggressive bull who took the bulls' scenario 2 and now little under water but still not stopped yet. The timid bull is safe because he didn't step in.

We opened higher, overshot the wedge, then from there it was downhill, broke the lower side of the wedge decisively to 915.80 and by the close we retested the broken wedge (green) and closed @ 921.23 under both the wedge and the channel upper side (black) of which both are resistance to the upside.

Check the annotation. The aggressive bulls who stepped in today must pay attention to these numbers. 915.62 - 907.94 - 903.78 Each break will push steam into the bears' heart and will put your positions in far dangerous place. Put your stops at these numbers but definitely you must take 903.78 as you last hope.

Good traders know how to make money but great traders know how to take a loss.

For the bears, the same stops still in effect (check here). No change and they can short any upside on Monday still as long as it doesn't exceed 929.90

If this community and this post added something to you, would you like to share it with someone else or keep it for yourself? Please Rec this post so others can find it in the blogs' list and pass it to others. Thanks!

Each one teach one! Each one help one!

I hope this find you well. Enjoy your weekend.

GoodVibe

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#50) On June 21, 2009 at 5:18 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

New post and new upcoming lounge 11...

You will need to get a new producer status for to the upcoming one. Your previous status for lounge 10 will expire once we close it soon.

All your previous uploaded media in lounge 10 are saved in the appropriate folder in the upcoming lounge. You don't need to upload them again. Please make sure to name new media appropriately and put your name on your charts so we can easily distinguish them and post again when someone ask for them.

Also if you like to post the lounge in your own blog, get the code from tools and post it as a comment in your upcoming blog. That way you can chat with us and respond to your own blog comments at the same time! Thanks for making us stronger every day.

Each one teach one. Each one help one!

Be happy, do good, and the rest will be taken care of.

GoodVibe Community

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#51) On June 21, 2009 at 7:53 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Lounge 11 was corrupted and we opened lounge 12 instead in comment #12 here. Lounge 11 is closed and 10 will follow soon. Please use lounge 12 as soon as you can. Thanks!

GoodVibe

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#52) On June 25, 2009 at 7:27 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote: