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GoodVibe4Ever (< 20)

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GoodVibe Class - Technical Analysis Live Lesson

Recs

59

July 17, 2009 – Comments (93)

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93 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On July 17, 2009 at 11:41 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

GV Live TA lesson: (check the lounge below)

(Take initiative - I show you the door, you do the leg work)

Price Channel (Continuation)
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
Williams %R

GV - SP Live Lesson MACD CCI

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Lesson Chart update - I hope you quickly sifted though the links until later.

This chart is live and current by the way. Those who have Stockchart membership can see it live from the previous link. Here's the still one:

GV - SP Live Lesson 01 MACD CCI

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Read the annotation on the chart to know the difference between the first chart and the second. Try to build the chart in your charting system and see if it will work out.

It takes time to learn a new thing but you will be rewarded if you keep at it. WATCH! WATCH! and WATCH MORE! To the best of my ability, I only give you what works (not all the time but most of the time). So your time will be well invested.

I hope this find you well.

GoodVibe


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#2) On July 17, 2009 at 11:41 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

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#3) On July 17, 2009 at 11:59 AM, ReadEmAnWeep (48.89) wrote:

Do you put a lot of faith in charts?

 

(Just wondering if it would be worth learning, for a new investor. Although it would be worth at least glancing over your links to get a feel for it.)

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#4) On July 17, 2009 at 12:29 PM, PrestonCheek (31.70) wrote:

REAW, I can assure you it's worth the time to learn charting, whether your a FA guy or not. Adding charts is one more tool that will help you buy and sell stocks of any kind.

 

Preston

 

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#5) On July 17, 2009 at 1:07 PM, Mary953 (73.31) wrote:

You don'[t require the guarantee that it will be worth the effort to learn to speak, walk, feed yourself, read, etc. Try  this and see if TA is worth it for you.  TA should give you a general idea of where the market is going as a whole.  This allows you to view the market from a rational point of view rather than approaching it as a gamble. 

Also, when GoodVibe began showing and teaching TA in late Jan, we would look and say okay when he said, "This is what I think will happen next."  Now, there is discussion, not just because the stock market is so complex, but also because so many have learned to chart, to do some technical analysis for themselves, and, now, there is discussion.  There is even argument - but always about the charts and counts, not about our friendship with each other

REAW- Please check TA out and then decide - not the other way around.  The people here really do not get anything out of this other than the very good feeling of knowing that one more person has the chance to 'beat the system' and take control of his own destiny.  And that is pretty powerful motivation.

Mary

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#6) On July 17, 2009 at 1:20 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

Commodity Channel Index (CCI)

Don't confuse that one with the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI) (Reuters-CRB CCI)

 

 

(from camistocks's recent post)

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#7) On July 17, 2009 at 1:23 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

(well, I guess if you are likely to confuse those you should not be looking at either one, hehe ...)

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#8) On July 17, 2009 at 3:01 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Lesson chart updates: (new annotation)

GV - SP Live Lesson 02 MACD CCI

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This chart gives bearish signal (sell or short). Pay attention that the daily chart is bullish unlike this intrady bearish one so establish your suitable stops if you like to short the market here and hold overnight for few more days or until the TA indicators reverse.

This is not an advice to buy or sell anything. It's a lesson to show you how this chart can be used. Learn first. There's more to know before you will be able to cover all your grounds trading a chart. One step at a time!

Current 940.22 

GoodVibe

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#9) On July 17, 2009 at 4:56 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Check this chart made by Geno (one of our GV Stars as we call them). It took Elliott wave principle into account. He used a similar but wider and also accurate channel. His channel didn't broke yet and allow for more room to little bit advance. In both cases, it lead to the same bearish short term view.

Hope this helped. Please, feel free to comment or post your chart if you have one. Geno will post that chart soon with some commentary from him.

Have a good weekend!

GoodVibe

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#10) On July 17, 2009 at 5:11 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

In case Geno forget. Here's his channel on my chart:

GV - SP Live Lesson 03 MACD CCI

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GoodVibe

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#11) On July 17, 2009 at 7:03 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Here is a little test at the CCI. Interesting stuff GV! It's going to be a little hard to read because of the size.

RW-CCItest

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#12) On July 18, 2009 at 10:23 PM, TigerPack1 (97.90) wrote:

If you want to make some money the next few months, forget the charts and BUY GANNETT (GCI).

It just started a short squeeze in buying after a stellar earnings report.  With 20% of the float short, GCI is breaking out of a 6 month base pattern, and is trading at 1 times annual cash flow and 2 or 3 times EPS!!!!

The company has rolled over debt due this year and bought back some debt at a discount the last few months.  They don't have any real threat of missing debt repayments or bankruptcy now for several years, and they still have monster, media company profit margins at "THE" low in the economy.

Given either or both higher rates of economic activity and inflation (higher ad rates), GCI's earnings should double the next 2-3 years, meaning today's investor is paying just 1 times future annual earnings.  Incredible valuation for a blue-chip, media company.  I rate it as one of the greatest long-term values I HAVE EVER SEEN IN 25 YEARS OF INVESTING.

Forget the death of newspaper argument, GCI is well diversified with many television stations and leading website portals.  Given an uptick in the economy and ad spending, this company's business prospects (using leverage) will see outsized gains in productivity and profitability soon.

I figure the underlying cash flow generation is worth at least $15, if not $20 a share today, not the $4 or $5 market price currently.

BUY GANNETT AND WAIT A FEW MONTHS OR YEARS TO "EARN" REAL MONEY.

-Tiger's Two Cents

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#13) On July 19, 2009 at 12:53 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Thanks for the tip TigerPack!

Here is my update of where the Russell 2000 might be going.


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Here is a closer look:


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Who knows...?

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#14) On July 19, 2009 at 11:54 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

071709_SPX

Large Version 

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#15) On July 19, 2009 at 12:48 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

It's funny how the markets do the exact opposite of what you'd expect. I have to agree with the idea that its a good time to get on the sidelines in cash. The similarity to the January high is pretty amazing.

But, I'm going to stick to my plan and wait to see if we break into the 960s. If that occurs we could easily head to the 1000 level. 

 

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#16) On July 19, 2009 at 5:26 PM, geno0010 (< 20) wrote:

Sorry GV - long weekend. Since you posted my channel I'll just explain why I place it where I do. I learned that once you get waves 1, 2 and 3 to just place a parallel line to wave 1 and 3 from wave 2 to give a probable point for wave 4 to conclude. Hope this helps! Good luck everyone.

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#17) On July 20, 2009 at 6:15 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Roy's most recent video; a must see.

 

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#18) On July 20, 2009 at 7:40 AM, crystlz (58.40) wrote:

I have been trading off this count for a while now and I am thinking this may be a case of a count works until it doesn't work anymore. I am counting us in wave a of B of 2 up. However; if we make and hold a new high above 956.23 this count will no longer be valid. There are several technical indicators that point to a drop here, but I for one am not going to put my money on that outcome. I have a busy work week and am not going to be able to watch the market closely so I am going to have to sit this one out. If one is convinced that the martket is going to fall from here I would suggest setting tight stops or being fully hedged.

 If the current wave proves to be a strong impulse wave the next roadblock will be at the election day 1007 from last November. Just my 2 cents worth.

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#19) On July 20, 2009 at 8:01 AM, crystlz (58.40) wrote:

Btw, If my count remains valid I would expect a wave b of B of 2 to fill the gap at 906. I really would like to be able to see how this unfolds as profit opportunities are abundant at the extremes and the TA resistances can be amazingly precise. Good luck to all this week.

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#20) On July 20, 2009 at 11:21 AM, darthballs (62.67) wrote:

Just as a general response to people asking if TA is worth learning, I just wanted to add my 2 cents..

Especially for those new to investing, it's important to realize that TA just puts into formal terms and definitions what we can generally refer to as -instinct-.  All investors (value, growth, fundamental), including those who adamantly oppose TA, look at the charts, and study or glance at historical prices.  Whether or not they believe in TA, they are still subconciously identifying patterns, trends, and eventually projecting where the prices are likely to head.  This is what I'm referring to as instinct.. you may not be actively looking for triangles and shoulders, but you're still subconciously taking in all that information and making up your own mind.

 TA just takes all that and applies formal "rules", definitions, etc.  I personally don't put too much weight on TA, but I still find it as a very useful tool overall.  Personally, I think you can never have too much information, or too many other opinions.  You don't have to be a die hard TA advocate to get good insight out of it.  At worst case, you can just read the advice of all the helpful people here and their charting, and just see it as a thought from a different perspective.  Add it to your other tools, can't hurt right?

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#21) On July 20, 2009 at 11:56 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart lesson Update (Monday):

Check the new annotations and price target for the decline. See the live updates in the lounge (comment #2)

New To read: Chart gaps

GV - SP Live Lesson 04 MACD CCI

Click to Enlarge

Have a profitable week!

GoodVibe

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#22) On July 20, 2009 at 4:16 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

For those who missed the following on CIL or anyone interested. I offered to change the name of the community from "GoodVibe community" to something else if this will help more people to come and join. I am not sure if the current name was voted for. Not once I've been asked to change the name but we are working on the guidelines of our community and I thought to bring it up to vote. Please vote freely.

Refresh this page to see the latest results after voting. Thanks!

GoodVibe

 

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#23) On July 20, 2009 at 6:54 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Trend is your friend and we're still in an up channel.

I'm sticking with my long positions for a couple more days to see if we break into the 960s but thanks GV for the alert!!!

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#24) On July 20, 2009 at 7:45 PM, Mary953 (73.31) wrote:

GoodVibe Community -

When we began in late January, the first post was a list of trading guidelines or rules.  It was the best blog that I have read and the most useful.  When I have been confused, or second guessed a move I was about to make, I found reassurance.  If I read and realized that my plan was not solid, I found the strength to wait.  GoodVibe, you need to keep your identity.  It is yours and no other will be as powerful.  You also need to republish that blog without comments for all of CAPS.  To make that a simple cut and paste operation, here is the link.  http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=134795&t=01009449456398254945

I hope there will be some agreement on that part.

This other part may not have the agreement, but I want to state it anyway.  A teacher and group of students have grown into a discussion group with some very advanced chartists and others who are advanced in other methodologies.  It is a wonderful thing to see.  The group of people who were discussing charts in Jan. were also advanced chartists.  I had no idea where to start as far as understanding even the language being used. 

We are at full circle.  New rules, a new name, none of this will help draw in more people who want to learn, grow, and join unless they are already serious students of TA or some other type of market management.  The majority of CAPS members come to learn but are not at this level.  This community is now closed by the complexity of the conversation and terms used.

The CIL does not allow for beginners to start at square one and go over the work step-by-step as thoroughly as they need to.  The loss of chatter, music, and lighthearted conversation - and the sympathy of friends when needed, block out other areas.  In early blogs, I was able to ask a number of very basic questions - repeatedly - and know that each time, someone else would have a follow up question that they had not been willing to express without a starting question (and I always learned from those discussions).  Now it is a matter of knowing that I would ask questions only for myself, and did I just miss an hour long conversation on the topic?  I cannot find the Gann fan conversation but it is a section that I wish I understood.  I do find references, but nothing on the beginning level that I must start at.  This seems to happen a lot in so many areas. 

Is there anyone who can or will at times step away and write out teaching blogs?  (Thank you, Russ and Binve for these blogs, Thank you Col for charts, and AC for the evening teaching sessions, but so few know of them!)  Is there a place for friendly conversation that is not shut away from the market?  Am I the only one that sees a concern here?  Or am I trying to be too much the friend and not enough the fellow investor? 

This is my 2 cents.  I would appreciate your feedback and guidance.  And since I do not have emails and my comments aren't part of the new rules, could you pass along my wish for your thoughts to the others who may not see this?

Thank you,

Mary

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#25) On July 20, 2009 at 8:01 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Completely agree Mary, but I just voted against the idea of changing the name.

I'm not a fan of the CIL - it was more fun without it but I'm not around daily and therefore have no right to judge.

Best to all, IIcx 

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#26) On July 20, 2009 at 8:55 PM, Mary953 (73.31) wrote:

GoodVibe Community -

When we began in late January, the first post was a list of trading guidelines or rules.  It was the best blog that I have read and the most useful.  When I have been confused, or second guessed a move I was about to make, I found reassurance.  If I read and realized that my plan was not solid, I found the strength to wait.  GoodVibe, you need to keep your identity.  It is yours and no other will be as powerful.  You also need to republish that blog without comments for all of CAPS.  To make that a simple cut and paste operation, here is the link.  http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=134795&t=01009449456398254945

I hope there will be some agreement on that part.

This other part may not have the agreement, but I want to state it anyway.  A teacher and group of students have grown into a discussion group with some very advanced chartists and others who are advanced in other methodologies.  It is a wonderful thing to see.  The group of people who were discussing charts in Jan. were also advanced chartists.  I had no idea where to start as far as understanding even the language being used. 

We are at full circle.  New rules, a new name, none of this will help draw in more people who want to learn, grow, and join unless they are already serious students of TA or some other type of market management.  The majority of CAPS members come to learn but are not at this level.  This community is now closed by the complexity of the conversation and terms used.

The CIL does not allow for beginners to start at square one and go over the work step-by-step as thoroughly as they need to.  The loss of chatter, music, and lighthearted conversation - and the sympathy of friends when needed, block out other areas.  In early blogs, I was able to ask a number of very basic questions - repeatedly - and know that each time, someone else would have a follow up question that they had not been willing to express without a starting question (and I always learned from those discussions).  Now it is a matter of knowing that I would ask questions only for myself, and did I just miss an hour long conversation on the topic?  I cannot find the Gann fan conversation but it is a section that I wish I understood.  I do find references, but nothing on the beginning level that I must start at.  This seems to happen a lot in so many areas. 

Is there anyone who can or will at times step away and write out teaching blogs?  (Thank you, Russ and Binve for these blogs, Thank you Col for charts, and AC for the evening teaching sessions, but so few know of them!)  Is there a place for friendly conversation that is not shut away from the market?  Am I the only one that sees a concern here?  Or am I trying to be too much the friend and not enough the fellow investor? 

This is my 2 cents.  I would appreciate your feedback and guidance.  And since I do not have emails and my comments aren't part of the new rules, could you pass along my wish for your thoughts to the others who may not see this?

Thank you,

Mary

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#27) On July 20, 2009 at 8:57 PM, Mary953 (73.31) wrote:

And I also think that the GoodVibe Community under any other name just ain't the same!

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#28) On July 20, 2009 at 9:28 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Mary,

I have no idea why you think that your comments or anyone else are not welcome anymore or anywhere as before? You already posted them here and I have no issue with that! :) And who said we have new "RULES". These are guidelines we are discussing and your OWN inputs changed them and added some already. It's in our best interest to make them better. We said, nothing is off limit. Anyone who think of themselves to be a member of this community, please speak up so we all can move on as quickly as possible.

My dear, in the CIL, things of importance got lost there as you said among the chatter box because of excessive chat with little benefits to most people. Also, arguments and personal disagreements started to distract most from the MAIN thing we are here for. We are here to help each others first and foremost to financially survive and thrive. This is what I believe most people will agree about.

That doesn't mean we should shun everything else. We can maintain our friendship as well, enjoy the songs, and the lighthearted comments, which we still do. All we ask for now is to keep them to after 4PM. I don't think this is much to ask for and most people are fine with it as you can see. During Market hours we should also have the basic "hellos, good mornings, hope you are well, etc." We are not calling to boycott anyone who speak any non financial word from 9:30AM to 4PM. :)

For the name change, this is not my cap name which can change, this is for "GoodVibe community" name. I hope by doing this, people who have any issue with what they wrongly perceive as "group mentality following one person" will then get the desire to share. Also, the community will stand on its own objectives instead of others' thinking of it as a personal thing that belongs to one person.

I have no issue with changing the name. Actually, I am the only one who asked for it. It's just an Avatar name. All I hope for is the outcome not any legacy. After all, I am not "GoodVibe" the avatar though I hope one day to be "GoodVibe" the character that I aspire to be. So no worry there if you had any. By the way, so far everyone else want to keep it. So no need to jump ahead of the results or are you trying to manipulate the vote here, my sister. :)

   Be happy, do good, and the rest will be taken care of.

GoodVibe

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#29) On July 21, 2009 at 12:43 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Mary -

I forgot to mention that we still answer all the basic and simple questions for any beginner. Any educational or market related question is welcome ANY TIME. Actually this is the CORE of our objective here - To bring what we know to those who don't know as well as learning what we don't know from those who know.

So no fear there. This blog is actually one of them, don't you think? A test for my TA class. I said I will start my own beginner class that will take people from A to Z. Also as you mentioned, many other people do the same now and will continue to do so. Hopefully, others will do the same.

Everyone has to add their little things so we can move forward. Some of us grew up and can even help many more of Caps' members than when we started. 

I hope my comments answered your concerns and thanks for your constant concern about all of us and always speaking for those who chose to be silent among us.

GoodVibe

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#30) On July 21, 2009 at 5:38 PM, 123spot (< 20) wrote:

Just thinking, as I read the 16-1700 CIL above how much I miss Mary in the daytime, how much I miss the occasional tune. Find myself tuning out the daytime CIL now, less "friendly". I know my calculus too, but appreciate previous lighthearted conversation with astute market and chart observations mixed in. TA/ EWT is critical to discuss (see GS program stolen) as computerized trading seems fully based on it. It has, therefore, become the cart leading the horse. But when that horse finds a head of his own, it's the thoughts/ sharing of personal decisions that give the edge the lounge provides. I vote firmly against the part of the new guidelines that restricts non-market conversation and fun. It has become a vacuum in there. Furthermore (don't you just love it when you hear "furthermore"), I have an inkling that some of the people who make this community what it is (what was it?) only have real time to participate fully during the day. I miss them, and they probably miss us and will find a less restrictive home for their valued company. Peace

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#31) On July 21, 2009 at 10:10 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

The latest edited community guidelines are below. Thanks to the many of you who shared making them. Now is the time to put them up to vote. Please, read carefully, send your suggestions, and vote for your opinion before we publish the final version next Saturday. Thanks for making the community strong with your efforts, time, and positive energy. A dream is strong as much as the people who believe in it.

                                          .................

Welcome to the “GoodVibe Community.” We are a unique and open community of self-directed investors and traders aiming to build, add, learn, teach, and make a positive change in the lives of our fellow members. Each one of us is proud to be a student as much as a teacher as among us we have different levels of experience with various investment methods and styles among us.

Everyone is welcome! Diverse investment approaches strengthen our community. Learning about them adds value to our thinking and decisions. If you believe you have something of value to share, please join us! We respect your individual character and knowledge beyond anything we can put in words. There’s no one answer that fits all and no one of us claims to have all the answers but we hope to help each other reach their best answer.

Although the community took on GoodVibe's Caps ID to identify itself, we think of it as our community's ID that doesn’t not belong to any single person. It will be here in Caps and the membership is always free.

Please read this reference post as it is aimed at helping you better understand our community’s purpose and way of operating. These guidelines are work in progress; the outcome of six months of solving challenges blogging in Caps. We feel these guidelines help preserve our community’s unique character and purpose. New ideas and input are welcome and future updates are likely to make our community even better.

We ask you kindly to read and stand for the following guidelines when you post in any of our blogs. Again, these guidelines are the outcome of collective experience and our community decisions. Thanks for understanding!

Community Guidelines:

1. We seek and offer learning not quick prepackaged answers or stock tips. You must develop your own personalized strategy and plan based on your own specific circumstances, objectives, and risk tolerance among other things. Refrain from asking for a personalized strategy, plan, specific stock advice, or when and where to make any personal financial decisions. This is beyond our abilities due to the complexity of everyone’s personal situation. If you seek this service, hire a professional personal investment advisor and consult with him or her before making any decisions. The work we present here including but not limited to any investment vehicles mentioned such as stocks or ETFs are for educational purposes only and should not be constituted as advice to buy or sell anything.

2. Verify before you trust. Question before you believe. Speak but listen. Study the data presented; do your own homework; and reach your own decisions. We offer what worked for us but no one here can guarantee it will work for you the same way or at all. Test before you jump. And never follow anyone unless you are fully aware of your rational and risk behind any trade you make. And please, never trade with money you cannot afford to lose!

3. We use different ways to analyze the market but rely significantly on Technical Analysis to time our trades and investments. While short-term investors, or swing and position traders will reap most of the benefits of TA, long-term investors can and should use it as well to increase their return and reduce their risk. Also, if you are not familiar with Technical Analysis or dispute its validity, this place is where you can start learning or verify the accuracy of your believes regarding TA.

4. Always challenge the group findings when necessary! Just make sure to ALWAYS EXPLAIN YOUR REASONS AND RATIONALE, and provide supporting data when possible. Emotionally motivated comments or unsupported opinions should be avoided. Never trade on emotions or offer them to others!

5. Freedom of sharing also comes with it responsibility to respect every member and their limited time:

** Hateful or disrespectful comments to any person or group of people will not be tolerated.
** Vulgar or offensive language has no place here either.
** Never respond to unfounded, irrational or unjust comments. Never ever defend others, the community we're building, or the work we do. It’s futile and consumes precious time and space.

No exceptions will be made.
This blog is a place for positive and productive communication. It may not offer everything for everyone but it will offer something for a lot of people and is intended to center on what we share in common rather than any personal differences. The open-minded see the truth in different things and the narrow-minded see only the differences. Be an open-minded person!

6. Everyone is entitled to believe and express their opinions in a respectful way. The level of our tolerance to those who disagree with us will prove the level of our convictions. Add, build, make a positive difference, or keep your peace. Written communications unlike the face-to-face, have their own challenges. Before taking any comment personally, you better off asking for clarification. If you must still express a grievance, please directly address whoever offended you in their blog or only through “private messages” in the lounge. Don’t get everyone involved with your complaint. Our only hope is that those who disagree with us treat us in the same way we treat them.

7. Everyone is encouraged to provide their analysis, information and data, answer questions, and provide links to questions that we may have answered in the past or they feel the confidence and knowledge to do so on their own. Please step in and either copy & paste an earlier answer or put it in your own words.

8. If we missed your question, please ask again. We try to answer as many questions as we can but can’t always give an immediate response. Come back later and you’ll likely find the answer in the same blog or chat room “the lounge” where you asked it. Some Technical issues with the lounge may delay your posts. Please, be patient.

9. This community is “collectively self-moderated” to keep us focused and productive. During market hours, unrelated market comments such as unnecessary social chats should be avoided as much as possible. You can come after 4PM or on weekends for such chats. During that time as well, all other guidelines still apply. Educational and market related comments are welcome ANY time.

10. Your participation and added contributions, recommending our blogs, and new members in our community are our positive indicators that we’re doing a good job and adding some value to you. Their absence will be a signal that we need to improve. So make sure to tell us how we are doing. Although Recs are good for your karma and appreciated, your comments, questions, or contributions are obligations. Also, we are equally thankful in advance for your rational and founded criticism as much as your appreciation of what we do here. The first helps us fix our mistakes and improve our performance and the second cheers our hearts. Keep them coming! They keep us going and going and going like the Energizer Bunny. Never say die!

                 Stay positive. Winning begins within.

Our motto:
 "Each one teaches one! We stay together we survive and thrive!"

Our pledge:
"On our honor, we will never betray our integrity, character, or others’ trust. We will always have the courage to hold ourselves and others accountable. We will always uphold our community, friendship, and others we serve."
 
         Be happy, do good and the rest will be taken care of.

                  ..........................................

 



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#32) On July 22, 2009 at 10:57 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart Lesson Update:

The next chart will show both channels mentioned above plotted at the same chart. Notice that “944 top” (where hypothetical short positions could started) was topped again today with 959. Both channels were broken to the downside and back tested.
That setup wasn’t great for timid shorts. They should be stopped by now. On the other hand aggressive bears should used it to scale into a position and adding at today's high (especially that Eilliott wave count supports their case - not mentioned in this chart). It wasn't the perfect outcome for both but the indicators are still playing in their favor and they still have great chance to get rewarded.

It seems that a long position was the right one. In a hindsight, everything is easy to call. I believe though that the risk was and still great for long position from TA perspective. As of tonight 954, there's a great risk for a sharp decline starting tomorrow because of the continuing "sharp bearish divergence" occurring in all three indicators (see the chart). Any long started from 935 to 959 are at risk for getting underwater.

Long story short, what we can learn from this chart is that timid bulls should wait until that divergence gets resolved or exit position today or at any new high tomorrow. Aggressive bears also can trade this chart with confidence until the indicators favor the bulls, which there's no signal for that yet.

Remember that any chart can be traded in many different ways and the outcome is never 100% guarantee. Though Charts don't lie, sometimes they fail. More indicators and experience required for better results.

Any way to trade a chart is fine as long as you are discipline and know your risk tolerance and have a plan. It’s just more probabilities that favor one party than another and risk management will help you better limit your risk. Always remember that sometimes that dark horse wins against all odds.

Notice that this is not a call to trade anything here especially if you don't know much about TA. It's just an illustration to show you the progress of a chart and the relation between prices and TA indicators.

I hope it helped attract your interest about TA. Tomorrow we will see if this chart will play they way I mentioned above. Until then, I hope this finds you and yours well.

GV - SP Live Lesson 06 MACD CCI

Enlarge - After you click enlarge click (CTRL) then (+) on your keyboard to even enlarge it more. (CTRL) then (-) to get it back to normal size.

Also we have a lot of great different discussions in the lounge Comment #2. Stop by sometimes and ask as many questions as you like. We post many charts live there.

GoodVibe

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#33) On July 22, 2009 at 11:07 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Here's something you can find in the lounge I posted tonight @ 18:56 to compare between the 2003 rally and the current rally. Stop by and check what do they mean.

GV - Index Performance 2003 Rally Notes

Enlarge 2003 March Rally

GV - Index Performance 2009 Rally Notes

Enlarge 2009 March Rally

Also there's great explanation of how to use something called Gann Fan between Anchak and Cabo just after I posted my charts. Check them in the archive of tonight conversation.

GoodVibe 

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#34) On July 23, 2009 at 6:52 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Hi GV,

Thanks for posting in the blog.

When you charted on March 9th you realized the head fake down and posted the Don't Short blog. It occurred to me on Sunday that this could be a head fake up testing a new down channel.

Just a thought related to the charting exercise.

Best, IIcx

 

SPX_072109

Larger Version 

 

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#35) On July 23, 2009 at 7:22 AM, Mary953 (73.31) wrote:

Okay Ladies and Gents,

On July 10th, I got very frustrated because it was obvious to me that the market rally was over and had been over for a day or two.  I had cashed in for some nice gains and was ready to scale into some new positions.

I took a position publically in a blog by Millionby24 telling him that his blog (which said - the rally is still on folks, get your money out and get moving) was wrong.  It was my first public stance and it was based on the way I was trading.

He has had several blogs since, but I didn't see them.  I saw one he put up today and I answered it - http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=232695&t=01006006473006623313  Please check the comment out.  Just as I let you know of the first comment, you should know of this one as well. 

Mary

 

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#36) On July 23, 2009 at 7:26 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Current View

SPX_072309

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#37) On July 23, 2009 at 9:24 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

#34 - probably logical not to comment - the markets are smokin' ; )

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#38) On July 24, 2009 at 2:12 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Hi Mary,

Great post but there's nothing wrong with taking a stance or having an opinion.

These market moves have been so crazy that there's really no right or wrong. Taking your money off the table was a good idea -- the upside isn't worth the risk. I did the same thing and had been the one to post my plan to stay long; #15.

Best, IIcx 

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#39) On July 24, 2009 at 5:51 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

CIL doesn't like human "stuff" so posting at the doorstep.

Just found that I'm moving coast to coast.

Dude, I finally get a chance to surf the Pacific and the time to learn EW Theory :)

from wikipedia for wave surfer newbies like me:

 

Five wave pattern (dominant trend)

Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts.

Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern.

Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend.

Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three. Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, the most distinguishing feature of fourth waves is that they often prove very difficult to count.

Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high, the indicator does not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received).

 

Hoping I have the sense to negotiate the undertow - help is appreciated ;)

IIcx 

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#40) On July 24, 2009 at 5:59 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

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#41) On July 24, 2009 at 6:46 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Enter CIL at your level -- all are welcome to "Cut the soles from shoes and learn" in the tree of your choice.

Using the recurrence relation, the sequence can also be extended to negative index n. The result satisfies the equation 

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#42) On July 24, 2009 at 7:27 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

= test of ideas true or false championed by heros to the ... dreamin'

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#43) On July 24, 2009 at 7:38 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

sorry for that!!! s/b championed by heros in search of the proof

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#44) On July 24, 2009 at 7:42 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

I'm Bad ;P

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#45) On July 24, 2009 at 8:55 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

and then again what I fear in the logic

 

 

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#46) On July 24, 2009 at 9:09 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

and what we fear?

 

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#47) On July 24, 2009 at 9:19 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

...the undertow - help is appreciated

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#48) On July 24, 2009 at 9:27 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

;) -- been too long since we enjoyed a GV blog -- CIL these days is a proctoscopic exam?

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#49) On July 24, 2009 at 9:33 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Don't make post this next vid GV -- lol :P

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#50) On July 24, 2009 at 10:45 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

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#51) On July 24, 2009 at 11:08 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Posted with great respect to a "Fool" icon!

Best, IIcx 

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#52) On July 25, 2009 at 1:46 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

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#53) On July 25, 2009 at 5:44 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

so much for humor -- sorry for the proctoscopic exam comment. I just don't like the CIL alternative.

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#54) On July 25, 2009 at 6:01 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

...and was having a bit of fun

Best, IIcx 

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#55) On July 25, 2009 at 6:11 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Music Please!

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#56) On July 25, 2009 at 8:41 PM, CosmosShiva (< 20) wrote:

Hi IILC,

   Thank you for the reminder about the 5 wave dominant trend.  I have been mulling over the Dow Theory and this little reminder set some things straight in my mind as I was trying to decide my next moves.  

    I have noticed the S&P under distribution in the last couple of days and was trying to decide if that is just profit taking or signs of a impending reactionary wave down.  The Dow Jones Industrials and the the Dow Jones Transportations are both trending higher, but accumulation/distribtion are supposed to indicate trend reversals.  Since the primary trend is a motive wave up and the market is under distribution I was thinking maybe a small reactionary wave down.  The reason that I'm think this will be a small wave is because of something I read in "The Elliott Wave Principle"  that says when the primary move is very powerfull the secondary corrections are likely to struggle.

     My goal is not to day trade a small move down but to find an entrance point for the next motive wave up.  My husban and I trade in tandum, but I consider his trades as my trades.  Right now he is 100% in long and I am 100% out in cash.  So I was thinking this might be a good place for him to sell and take his profits and me to set up for the next motive wave up. 

     Please feel free to critise, I like to see opposing views.

Maria

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#57) On July 27, 2009 at 10:17 AM, crystlz (58.40) wrote:

This week's chart is assuming that we are approaching an important resistance leve @ 1007.51, the election day high and also diagonal trend line resistance. If we break through this level I am suggesting that this may be the wave 3 up that we have been expecting since March. Just my 2 cents worth.

Enlarge

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#58) On July 27, 2009 at 12:05 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Hi CosmosShiva,

To be honest  - the closet thing I've seen so far that makes sense of the market moves is portefeuille #6 comment in UltraLong's post. If his projection pans out, we should bounce along a top here before pulling back strongly. He's implying that the trend is up before a major pull-back down the road.

I've been following stocks that over-react to the pullbacks and have left gaps much lower in their price charts. EXM is one. So, I'm inclined to wait until they fall to buy in.

I'm currently in cash as well. As GMX pointed out quite a while ago related to a similar situation at the bottom, "there's something about these markets that just doesn't smell right."

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=233266&t=01002756778892789413

Drop into CIL for a more insightful look at the situation.

Best, IIcx

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#59) On July 27, 2009 at 12:19 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Art Cashin: When the NEXT Rally Will Start

source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/32171985

Art Cashin, one of my favorites, agrees with GMX CosmosShiva. He's holding his nose and only buying because he has to but predicts a pull-back.

His commentary seems to confirm portefeuille's projection but in a shorter timefame.

Best, IIcx 

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#60) On July 28, 2009 at 12:59 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Charts presenting a long term Bullish trend after the pull-back.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-nasdaq-surpass-technical-milestones-2009-07-28  

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#61) On July 28, 2009 at 1:27 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:

His commentary seems to confirm portefeuille's projection but in a shorter timefame.

I have not made a projection. I have just compared two charts and my point was that the two rallies look similar, not that there will be a crash.

 

update of that chart

 

 



enlarge

 

(from comment #45 here)

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#62) On July 28, 2009 at 1:38 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Sorry portefeuille,

I didn't mean to imply you were making a projection. I should have said based on the chart you posted.

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#63) On July 29, 2009 at 6:26 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three. Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, the most distinguishing feature of fourth waves is that they often prove very difficult to count.

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#64) On July 29, 2009 at 6:42 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Yet, I don't trust the machines.

Music Please!!!

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#65) On August 02, 2009 at 4:40 PM, crystlz (58.40) wrote:

After another week brought us another new high in the S&P 500 I think most are a bit gun shy of shorting this market. The move up of from 869.32 has been strong and will not end until it ends. I am continuing to suggest a possible interim  top around 1007.51. However; I am not putting any of my money on that outcome at this time. With GS calling for a higher top I'm not in the words of Adirondak Fund "going to short evil."

I am going to be out of town for a few days and thus off the battlefield.  I hope everyone has a profitable week.

Enlarge

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#66) On August 02, 2009 at 11:34 PM, innerflame (< 20) wrote:

Great synopsis and chart Crystiz! Thanks for offering it.

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#67) On August 03, 2009 at 12:22 AM, awallejr (83.95) wrote:

Just curious.  Why do gaps "Need" to be filled?

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#68) On August 03, 2009 at 12:29 AM, TMFUltraLong (99.95) wrote:

awallejr,

Its like having a bubble in concrete foundation...it needs to be filled for the building on top of that foundation to be considered solid

UltraLong

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#69) On August 03, 2009 at 8:24 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Hi everyone, I'm not a producer in CIL so I'm posting this here. I'm sick of shorting stuff right now, but I'll probably get some ZSL today.


Enlarge

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#70) On August 03, 2009 at 8:50 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, said in a CNBC interview this morning that the Chinese market "is it is in a cyclical bull market in a secular uptrend" and could possibly pull back 25% taking the S&P with it for a brief dip into the low 800s on profit taking.

That's pretty deep for a wave 4. 

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#71) On August 03, 2009 at 11:30 AM, bothisellhigher (28.97) wrote:

I agree with you Crystiz...the battle intensifies at 1005 resistance.  Should this point be penetrated to the upside and as riduculous as it would seem, the probabilities would favor a continuing advance toward 1200...so your "danger zone" could also read "opportunity" zone.  Of course if prices bounce off resistance, then a decline toward support becomes probable...and that would be 935, whlch I do not believe gives enough room for shorts...I'm staying long AUY.

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#72) On August 03, 2009 at 11:39 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Maybe we're still in Wave 1?

100309_SPX

Larger Version 

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#73) On August 03, 2009 at 12:19 PM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:












 

Robin Griffiths, technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, ...

-------------

Robin Griffiths joined Phillips & Drew in 1966, having taken a degree in Economics at Nottingham University. He went on to be a partner at WI Carr, the first British stock broker to have offices in Hong Kong and Tokyo. Part of this firm was acquired by Grieveson Grant, with whom Robin enjoyed a stay in Japan. In 1986 Robin joined James Capel, which was already owned by HSBC. He stayed
there until normal retirement age, and during that period travelled all over the world to meet their extended client base. For the last six years of that employment Robin was resident in New York.

Having left HSBC Investment Bank in 2002, Robin then joined Rathbones as Head of Global Investment Strategy, where he stayed until 2008. He is currently the Technical Strategist for Cazenove Capital and manages the Worldwide Absolute Return hedge fund.

Robin has been a regular on CNN, CNBC, Reuters and Bloomberg TV. He is a committee member and former chairman of the international Federation of Technical Analysts, and former chairman, now fellow, of the British Society of Technical Analysts. A keen sailor, Robin has crossed the Atlantic five times, setting a new British record in 1984 with Sir Robin Knox-Johnston.

------------- 

(from here)

 

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#74) On August 03, 2009 at 3:01 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Ok, now it seems to make a bit more sense. We're about to enter Wave 2 down. 5+ month wave 1 patterns have to be unusual?

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#75) On August 03, 2009 at 8:01 PM, bigbullrally (< 20) wrote:

So much for this wave theory...it doesn't take a genius to see that it's not working...

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#76) On August 04, 2009 at 9:22 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Bear or Bull: if this is correct, 13 should be next; posted for comment only.

 

SPX_21count

Larger Version

 

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#77) On August 04, 2009 at 9:42 AM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

Bait, I haven't seen you recently, I hope Ryan's treatments are going well. Just wanted to tell you that you, Ryan, & your family have been in my thoughts and prayers. Take care.

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#78) On August 04, 2009 at 5:11 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

looks like we're still waiting on the end of 21 but I've found it amazing to see great stocks dive like a sub in the face of a single downgrade; bought one long today at a 3 month low. It's a very edgy point in time for traders and no one seems to want to be either the kid on the sidelines or the chump who bought the top.

The next sign post up ahead... 

 

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#79) On August 04, 2009 at 5:13 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Your choice GV, Music Please!!! 

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#80) On August 04, 2009 at 5:24 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

on behalf of GV's CIL... until he comments of course ;)

 

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#81) On August 04, 2009 at 6:09 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

dialogues are fun... (unless you are alone on a doorstep)

 

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#82) On August 04, 2009 at 6:31 PM, Mary953 (73.31) wrote:

Ilcx, 

An early video addition that has now been disabled for embedding can be found at  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0p_1QSUsbsM

Or You can just rock out a while -  

Or just for fun  -- 

Does that help for a bit of a music 'fix'?

Mary

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#83) On August 05, 2009 at 8:21 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Thanks Mary  : )

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#84) On August 05, 2009 at 7:51 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Ouch, from the light bulb/gas lamp transition -- I grew up in an era wondering why and was always told to get outside and play or a chore was my next task for the outburst.

Buildings were first plumbed with gas lines for light before owners accepted the idea electricity. The buildings were then built with both assuming the "new" would fail.

The fascination from one this old isn't the idea that EWT doesn't work but the idea that the tools you are using are inaccurate.

EWT was pen on paper and the charting tools in comparison today simply need someone's chore.

 

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#85) On August 05, 2009 at 7:57 PM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Music Please ;)

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#86) On August 06, 2009 at 6:32 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Gann-format chart scale

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#87) On August 06, 2009 at 7:38 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:












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#88) On August 06, 2009 at 7:44 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Sorry, I should have said the tools we are using and it appears that some charting tools allow for alterations to scale. Maybe it's just me but I don't trust a program that claims to automatically rescale correctly and many of the programs don't even do that.

Any way, I'll stop musing in here and stop back after I've finished reading the books and have found a charting tool I like. 

Best, IIcx

PS Someone (sorry, can't remember who) posted in a GV blog several months ago that he was using Excel and data tables. He didn't get much "air-time" but...

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#89) On August 06, 2009 at 7:51 AM, portefeuille (99.60) wrote:












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#90) On August 06, 2009 at 10:43 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

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#91) On August 06, 2009 at 11:05 PM, binve (< 20) wrote:

Hey susan, when you see this in the morning, can you set up a new CIL? Thanks!!

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#92) On August 06, 2009 at 11:06 PM, isusan (< 20) wrote:

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#93) On August 09, 2009 at 7:21 PM, crystlz (58.40) wrote:

Last week brought more new highs to the S&P 500 and there is certainly the possibility that the market will extend this week. If the SPX  is able to hold above my red diagonal line which would become a new support there is a high probability that we will see more significant gains moving forward. If a trader is deep in the money long and we have new support it seems an excellent place to add to long positions.

The 1018.xx could have been the end of a 5 wave move up and we could see some corrective action here. I have left my v in place as the end of a 5 wave move which could be counted many different ways. At the extreme it could be small wave 1 of a large wave 3 up. This week should be a good test to see if the rally is going to pause for a bit or if it will charge out of the gate and not look back for a while.

If the market churns sideways on strong volume this could possiby indicate distribution from the strong hands to the weak hands and that could indicate a possible intermediate top for the market. I, for one, am not going to try and anticpate the market's next move, but am ready to react to the signals I receive. Just my $.02. Good luck to everyone this week.

Enlarge

 

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