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GoodVibe4Ever (< 20)

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GoodVibe Community Alert - This Is The Time!

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71

June 25, 2009 – Comments (44)

We've be been charting successfully the waves from top 956.23 and communicated the updates to these calls live including today. Now I have a BIG alert for you. Today's advance is the moment of truth where bulls and bears can clearly find an infliction point and take positions depend on what they belive the next move will be.

According to EWP, today's high (S&P 921.42 so far) will be either the start of mighty wave three DOWN, marking what might be THE top of this rally @ 956.23! Or it will be the start of the new large wave C up, marking 888.86 as another bottom to more gains for the bulls.

Both sides can take positions and put stops at those tops and bottoms (888.86 stop for the bulls) and (956.23 stop for the bears). Bears even can put 927.09 as their stops. Timid bulls can wait for 956.23 to clear or aggressive bulls can take positions here. Timid bears can wait for 888.86 to clear or agreessive bears can start here. It depends on you and your plan.

Two GoodVibe Stars (Dan and Russ) posted live charts that will give you clear understanding of what I said above. Please check them here in comment 32 and 33. They will post it again here when they get the time. I will also add mine later. You can follow the live chat below for now. Click play in the blue area below.

S&P Current  918.97

               We wish you as much as you wish for yourselves and little bit more. 

GoodVibe Community

44 Comments – Post Your Own

#1) On June 25, 2009 at 3:19 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

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#2) On June 25, 2009 at 4:09 PM, catoismymotor (35.67) wrote:

This reminds me of when I used to chat on AOL. You seem to have a good natured group. My best to all of you.

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#3) On June 25, 2009 at 4:19 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

i was hearing a turn @ 932 for the call for the second top

 

but 932 & 927 is really not much difference 

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#4) On June 25, 2009 at 4:46 PM, dudemonkey (40.74) wrote:

So the final analysis is that the next move will either be up or down.  That some kind of predictive theory you've got there :)

All kidding aside, thanks for the EWP analysis!  While that's not the system that I'm going with, it's very interesting and GoodVibe's accuracy is something to take note of.

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#5) On June 25, 2009 at 5:32 PM, Nainara (< 20) wrote:

According to EWP, today's high (S&P 921.42 so far) will be either the start of mighty wave three DOWN

Ok. Market might go up. Market might go down. That takes care of two of the three possibilities. What if the market just goes sideways for a while? Is the error margin of this TA prediction about 33%?

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#6) On June 25, 2009 at 5:34 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Catois - Thanks for your kind words.

Rebk - Follow up for sometime before getting confused. I see you are in the lounge now for the first time. ;)

Dude - What we have to do man? Misguided souls! :) In this market, we're like trying to push water with a fork or dance on the head of a pin.

Joke aside, seriously, this is a call for an immanent LARGE move either way starting tomorrow that is tied to specific numbers that are very near from the current close (to both sides). So what EW tells us is you first do your homework through your favorite analysis including fundamental analysis, go and bet on one side at certain exact point, and then put your stops where your scenario should NEVER exceed or violated  according to EW rules.

This way you either protect your gains, or minimize your loss to the lowest possible. This call is an extension to the previous call started even before we call 956 a top, but unlike the previous one, this is an infliction point where it will result on setting up an intermediate direction for days if not weeks to come. Wherever you choose, your pain will be limited to a little loss (if you bet on the wrong side) in exchange for a possible LARGE gain.

Also remember that the timid group of bears or bulls have their "safe" numbers to wait for so they can get "no doubt confirmation". Chances are great tomorrow will tell us this clearly and it can be big.

If the next wave is down, there's something very ugly coming from no where. What is that? I have no idea. If the wave is up, a steady march up to my large call back in March will be fulfilled by September.

Does that make sense? Thanks for your Kudos and I hope this added some value to your thinking and the thinking of many others.

GoodVibe

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#7) On June 25, 2009 at 5:43 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Nainara - I hope my comment to Dude helped you understand what we meant. I clearly now understand where some of you guys are coming from and this is why I am trying as much as possible to walk in your shoes and write blogs that as close to exact numbers as humanely possible. All I ask now from you (if you wish so) is to take the time to watch carefully how you can use this call on paper and see if it works for you or not.

I know the language seems ambiguous to someone who never heard of EW but really it's not if you put some thought into what I said above and spent sometime reading the book and keeping us on your radar. Every new thing take sometime to get. Many of those who chart now, didn't have an idea of what I was talking about few months ago.

That said, this is just a tool that you might not like to use, which is fine by all means.

GoodVibe

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#8) On June 25, 2009 at 6:27 PM, RussWild (< 20) wrote:

Sorry guys, got to this late. Here is a 15 day count. For explination it's in the main Blog that GV posted.

 RW-SPX15day

enlarge

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#9) On June 25, 2009 at 6:36 PM, h00p52 (< 20) wrote:

GV

 I've been following your community for about 2 weeks. I drifted over after following Sal on the MDP- Fool boards. I like the Lounge and spend time there in an attempt to become better informed. I will eventually read the required reference materials and hopefully chart. 

I followed MDP advice but never considered  myself a buy and holder. Lacking proper patience was more the reason than thinking there was a better strategy. Patience is why i started the comment. I admire your's related to your entry and exit blog, teaching and how you treat people (especially the negative commentors). 

Got to listen before you know. I have been and know what i have been doing is wrong.. I need a better plan and a set of principles to base it on. You need to pick a direction and set up  plans to take advantage of that assumption. Guys a lot smarter than me are wrong everyday so having a system is something that will help center me.

Thanks for all the time you dedicate to the community.

h00p52

 

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#10) On June 25, 2009 at 8:26 PM, SkinneeJ (28.36) wrote:

If the next wave is down, there's something very ugly coming from no where. What is that? I have no idea. If the wave is up, a steady march up to my large call back in March will be fulfilled by September.

 GoodVibe, I don't want to put words in your mouth, but trying to understand where your bet is...  From the comment above, it appears as if you are expecting the market to go UP from here, correct?

 

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#11) On June 25, 2009 at 8:32 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

how about michael jackson's death...USB missing...POT missing and getting hammered in the aftermarket..627k jobless claims confirmed this past month...who knows there are few to choose from 

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#12) On June 25, 2009 at 11:35 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Skinnee - My current bet is short that I started at both 955 and 925. Those will be covered with nice gains if 927.09 will be taken out tomorrow! It's simple as this. The rule that wave 1 can't retrace more than 100% of 2 (if you are aware of EW). If we top 927 high, then all we know that wave 3 DOWN is not gonna happen and the bullish scenario have better chances. This is the only thing we can be certain of. For the upside above 956 from above 927, we have to find out like everyone else. We will have to wait for more actions on the chart.

For my bullish position: I will decide later to go long or stay in cash until we top 956 as a timid bull. Chances also I will stay mostly in Cash so I can have my vacation.

I will keep my long Treasuries and short Precious metals and miners open with trailing stops. I also have couple plays long. They will also stay open. I am comfortably high there but my orders will kick in at certain levels. I also have some Ultra ETFs (losers) from past trades. I will keep those too (This is not an advice). These I think of them as options that never expire and time will come for them to shine back again.

Always see both sides! I hope this find you and yours well.

And thanks h00 for your very kind words. I hope I was of little help.

GoodVibe

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#13) On June 26, 2009 at 1:09 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Here is my worst case senario for the bears. This is my most bullish chart. I don't think it will pan out, but I'm bearish right now and I like to chart the most bullish posibilty just in case. If the bulls do win tomorrow or Monday, I kind of think it will end up like an abc-x-abc-x-abc-etc. I've seen these abc-x-abc-x-abc-etc counts from all of the great charting guys here, so I think they might be on to something. But... I keep this count on my rada until it is broken.


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#14) On June 26, 2009 at 1:11 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

Here is my bearish Russell 2000 chart, which I've been trading.


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If we end this week with a rally, despite all of the American tragedies we've had this week:

1. Losing the King of Pop
2. Losing one of Charlie’s Angels
3. Losing the side-kick to the King of Late Night
4. John and Kate + 8 divorce

I will be absolutely disgusted with the bulls and their greed, they should all be ashamed of themselves. My stops will be set for 517, and I will gladly sell my TZA as a proud bear on this date. I will mourn all weekend, and then decide if I want to join with those filthy bulls for a while.

I'll see you all on Monday, I'm in mourning as of now.

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#15) On June 26, 2009 at 1:26 AM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

One more thing... I really like Russ's count above. Ok, now I'm in mourning. See you Monday.

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#16) On June 26, 2009 at 1:55 PM, starbucks4ever (99.03) wrote:

So where is that huge wave up or down starting today? S&P @ 916.98 currently. And by the way, maybe EWT can finally make up its mind as to whether it's up or down (or maybe both? :):):) 

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#17) On June 26, 2009 at 2:07 PM, portefeuille (99.43) wrote:

I have updated a chart I posted in comment #25 here.

Here it is.

Maybe someone can do the EWT thing for those 2 rallies and say to what degree they (their wave count thing ...) are similar.

 

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#18) On June 26, 2009 at 2:35 PM, TMT33 (< 20) wrote:

Goodvibe, I have a question, how does today's action impact your thoughts on direction. it's very mixed yet the Nasdaq NH-NL is the highest since 9/2008?

 

Aristotle

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#19) On June 26, 2009 at 9:04 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

TMT - This call is not a day trade call or will happen in ONE day (read comment 6 and 7). ONE day action doesn't make or break a call unless the action violated any RULES. None of that occurred here, thus there's no impact on my thoughts.

For the NH-NL - This is the third time I've been asked about it in 24 hours! So, to give it justice, I will write a blog soon about it. Short on time for now.

I hope this helped.

For those new to this blog, community, and EW especially:

I will try my best one more time...

Every wave must have a starting point. For example On Friday March 6 when I called for the bottom as a starting point for a huge rally wave to follow, the kick in occurred the next trading day March 9 and since then the wave still folding to the upside even after almost four months of advance and I still didn't call this wave terminated (yet)! That said, it doesn't mean that Monday will be a 500 point day up or down.

When we call today as a start for a large incoming move, that doesn't mean that the whole move will take a day, few days, or even few weeks. It might even take months to fully finish. And it doesn't have to start with a bang. Did the 2007 top started with a bang? No! Actually it was a normal sunny day. Look where we are now.

Proactive patience is a requirement when dealing with trading or investing. Heck, other ways of "respected" investing methods ask you to buy, hold, and wait for years before you should ask for a return of 9% annually! So, if you think that EW will push a botton and give you 500 points move in 24 hours, I suggest Las Vegas as a better place to implement your understanding of something you publicly admitted no knowledge or understanding of.

All we are trying to say that if you want to be one of the first ticket holders, we gave you a way and a point where you can inflict maximum pain for the other side with little measured and controlled risk on your side where you can take the side of your choice, get stopped when the rules get violated, then stay on the side or even join the other camp. Not a bad deal at all!

The above is not a defense of EW. It doesn't need one. It was written in hopes that misguided and reckless comments and blogs don't prevent you (inquisitive person) from testing EW to see for yourself if it fits you or not.

I hope this helped and if not, I don't know exactly what will. :)

GoodVibe

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#20) On June 26, 2009 at 9:22 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

One last comment can you explain (to yourself) how these calls were made before hand Based on Elliott Wave Principle?

Few of the many well documented charts are below:

First chart posted on Caps:

Wave {1} Down

Enlarge

How about this, this, this, this, this, ... you get it .. or how about this or this? And how about the last call. I rest my case!

The open-minded see the truth in different things: the narrow-minded see only the differences.

!

GoodVibe

 

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#21) On June 27, 2009 at 4:32 PM, crystlz (57.39) wrote:

This chart is only one scenario of many and I am not attached to the outcome. I am in agreement with gv that the coming week offers the potential for making  a large gain vs a relatively small loss if the trade goes the wrong way. I'll be watching to see the "look" of the developing waves. If it becomes clear that we are in a strong wave up I will open new long positions @928. If there is a gap down I"ll wait for a new low to go long. If the market goes flat I'll be in and out of 3xEtfs.

This is only what I'm planning, not advice, only my 2cents.

 

ENLARGE 

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#22) On June 28, 2009 at 11:04 AM, IIcx (< 20) wrote:

Hey Guys,

Here's a first attempt at charting PRGN's recent price movement. I still need to finish reading the book which I should finally have some time to focus on in the next 2 weeks so feel free to rip this post to shreads. I'm sure I've made numerous mistakes.

I chose PRGN because it's a good company at a reasonable price with a great p/e and because it has been trading in wide swings. It's very sensitive to market emotions, swings with market news.

I don't fully understand why its been beaten down this far. 2007 ipo, no splits, and solid bookings well into next year. The spike in volume and price happened with its last Quarterly report which beat the street estimates. The 50 and 200MAs look like they will cross in the next week or so.

Thanks in advance for comments and suggestions.

Regards, IIcx

PRGN_062809 

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#23) On June 29, 2009 at 8:23 AM, hhasia (62.51) wrote:

How to get back in the lounge. Have tried to post, but it does not register.  help GV

Thanks HHAsia

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#24) On June 29, 2009 at 8:44 AM, crystlz (57.39) wrote:

Hi bhasia,

I think you were trying to post when no one was watching the guest comments. When there are people posting just post "aa please" and someone should let you in. Hope this helps.

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#25) On June 29, 2009 at 4:36 PM, DanDarby (< 20) wrote:

 Here is an update to my bullish SPX chart above. I unloaded some shorts this morning, if we open gap up tomorrow or reach the top of the channel, I'll probably buy them back.

DanDarby-6.29.09-SPXBull

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#26) On June 29, 2009 at 4:59 PM, RVAspeculator (31.79) wrote:

"today's high (S&P 921.42 so far) will be either the start of mighty wave three DOWN"

"Bears even can put 927.09 as their stops"

Does this mean Goodvibe is long now?   We traded up to 927.99 today.

I covered my shorts in the 800's last week and think EWP is bunk... im just curious.  

I dont want this to be like when he went short at 820 and then you didnt hear anything until 956.

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#27) On June 29, 2009 at 10:59 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

RVA - I heard you stopped reading my blogs long time ago. Sigh!

I was always here EVERY day for the last 6 months and I always communicate my THINKING where I stand. So please, at least be fair.

I said many times, I walk the walk as I talk the talk and I follow my trading rules but I don't ask or want others to follow MY PLAN. I want everyone to think for themselves and make their own plan.

I am not here to give stock tips, if you keep always forgetting. If you or anyone here is looking for this, please stop reading my blogs, this time for real.

For your "sincere concern", people who care know that I have core short position with many of them are long term in different sectors. Others are short term where I book gain or exit from time to time. Including booking half my 956 trade, which by the way I communicated also live on CIL @ 11AM.

We also knew and called for a temporary bottom when we crossed the 890 level according to your "bunk" EWP. Some people booked, some stayed. some went long. We don't think the same as you like to think. 

Are you happy now and your curiosity was satisfied?  

I hope this find you well.

GoodVibe

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#28) On June 29, 2009 at 10:59 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

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#29) On June 30, 2009 at 12:14 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

This comment for the lounge users:

First, I will thank Cabo, Susan, mastiff, Flame, Columbia and many others who I might missed for keeping the lounge respectful, clean, and tolerant.

We want anyone who posts on the lounge to make sure to read this first. You are always welcome to speak up your mind until you cross the line.

If you use offensive or hateful language of any group of people, you will be alerted kindly to refrain from such comments. If you keep at it and can't respect these common sense guidelines that are not different from CAPS (1 2), then unfortunately we will ask you to stop commenting no matter how financial value you think you can offer.

If you refuse, we will be left with no option but to block you all together from commenting as well as reporting your comments to CAPS if your same comments went into our CAPS' page.

I agreed to this with great pain for I believe greatly about freedom of expression than most people but in this case I think it's appropriate to preserve the respect we hold to one another as well as give the opportunity to people from different backgrounds to come and share knowing that we don't tolerate such behavior or share hateful ideology.

Thank you all.

GoodVibe

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#30) On June 30, 2009 at 2:41 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Some useful links are below (if you are interested in EW). These are just short articles about to how you can use EW to evaluate your risk/reward when starting or closing a trade or investment, which is the best thing EW can offers you.

Here, here, and here.

I hope this will help.

GoodVibe

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#31) On June 30, 2009 at 3:12 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

The following chart is well known chart here to those in the lounge (Check comment #28) as well as in the TA world but I thought to bring it to those who are not aware of it yet.

By the way this is my new chart style in preparation for all charts' updates.

GV - SP H&S

Enlarge

I believe it doesn't need any explanation.

PS. If you, guys in the lounge, have something to share, please post here as well. Many people have no time to go through the chat. Thank you!

GoodVibe

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#32) On June 30, 2009 at 3:43 AM, portefeuille (99.43) wrote:

update on an earlier comment on porsche.

that old comment.

-----------------

If there is one (major) stock that could easily double on news it is Porsche. They still have those call options on about 1/4 of the VW shares. Plus they have around 51% of the VW shares. Plus they have some 10B EUR in "net debt". I am just waiting for one headline SWF ... (insert name here) buys VW calls from Porsche. For say 10 or 15B EUR. That would leave Porsche with 51% of VW, no net debt and the Porsche production. That would be a 100% up day.

-----------------

(from comment #13 here

today's "news".

-----------------

Qatar Only Wants Porsche’s Volkswagen Options, FTD Reports


By Angela Cullen

June 30 (Bloomberg) -- Qatar Investment Authority has only offered to buy options held by Porsche SE on Volkswagen AG shares, Financial Times Deutschland reported, without saying how it obtained the information.

Porsche Chief Executive Officer Wendelin Wiedeking had hoped Qatar would also purchase a stake in Porsche’s holding company. Qatar wants a “politically correct” investment that keeps it neutral amid a power struggle involving the Porsche and Piech families and VW, the newspaper said.

-----------------

well, no doubling yet ...

 

 

 

 

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#33) On June 30, 2009 at 3:53 AM, portefeuille (99.43) wrote:

(for the german speaking audience. the article.

Emirat Katar greift nach VW-Optionen

(I did correct the abovementioned comment #13 in comment #33 of that earlier post. The article mentions they have options on "about 20%" of vw shares.))

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#34) On June 30, 2009 at 4:02 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Although I am trying to avoid posting my mini count and concentrating on the large count so I won't prejudice others' thinking as well as let others exercise what they learned independently from my charts, I will start to post as many mini count as I can when I see something of value to share.

Here's the chart I am trading right now:

GV - SP mini count 06.30.09

Enlarge

I hope this will add value to your thinking but NOT make you thinking.

GoodVibe

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#35) On June 30, 2009 at 9:27 PM, crystlz (57.39) wrote:

I'm posting this continuation of my chart from Saturday since this week's price action is well contained within the original chart. I realize that the market can invalidate my count in the blink of an eye, but I'm glad I have my chart to steady my nerves until that happens. 

I am very grateful to everyone in the GV Community for the support and comradery that I receive here. I feel that the TA that I'm learning here gives me a fighting chance as I step onto the battlefield. 

Enlarge 

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#36) On June 30, 2009 at 10:54 PM, crystlz (57.39) wrote:

Here's a chart that shows SBUX reflecting the move in the SPX. Occasionally this stock moves ahead of the market. I don't know of any news that would account for today's decline, but I thought is was worth showing.

 

Enlarge 

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#37) On June 30, 2009 at 11:54 PM, RVAspeculator (31.79) wrote:

Goodvibe....

I’m a CAPS junkie and of course I still read your posts, even though they disappeared altogether from the previous EW  “tops” at 820 and 868….   (IE: the last two EW “Dramatic Reversal’s”)

Remember, I only got pissy after your silly stunt where you called out all the traders who add 1000 points to their caps score every month.

Just be more honest with folks about what you are trading…  People will still read you even if you admit you got it wrong here and there.  No one trades perfectly and EW along with all other technical indicators are just a way to keep you from losing your whole account in my opinion.   They give you a little line to cover at or to buy at and they give you a little line to admit you are wrong.  All systems are like this and that’s a good thing (as it FORCES discipline) but that does not make them very predictive.  

Maybe this third EWP “Dramatic Reversal” will be the charm, it sure does look like a head and shoulders on the chart to me…

I’m on vacation now and not trading this week so make sure the market doesn’t go into the tank too far until I get off the beach…    :)

 

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#38) On July 03, 2009 at 8:29 AM, ayekappy (< 20) wrote:

Damn son! #3) On June 25, 2009 at 4:19 PM, Rebkong1 (< 20) wrote:

i was hearing a turn @ 932 for the call for the second top

 

 

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#39) On July 06, 2009 at 4:47 AM, portefeuille (99.43) wrote:

# 32,33 More bidders interested in Porsche VW stake -report

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#40) On July 08, 2009 at 12:56 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart Update:

GV - SP H&S 07.08.09

Enlarge

GoodVibe

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#41) On July 13, 2009 at 3:12 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart Update:

GV SP H&S 07.13.09

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I hope this find you well!

GoodVibe

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#42) On July 14, 2009 at 12:44 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

Chart Update:

This is S&P and VIX. Who will win? My bets still on the bears but with disciplined stops (Yellow area in S&P). Always see both sides.

GV SP & VIX 07.14.09

Enlarge

Current 903

Are we there yet? ;)

GoodVibe

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#43) On July 17, 2009 at 11:50 AM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

GV Live TA lesson: (check the lounge in comment #54)

New blog .............

(Take initiative - I show you the door, you do the leg work)

Price Channel (Continuation)
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
Williams %R

GV - SP Live Lesson MACD CCI

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Lesson Chart update - I hope you quickly sifted though the links until later.

This chart is live and current by the way. Those who have Stockchart membership can see it live from the previous link. Here's the still one:

GV - SP Live Lesson 01 MACD CCI

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Read the annotation on the chart to know the difference between the first chart and the second. Try to build the chart in your charting system and see if it will work out.

It takes time to learn a new thing but you will be rewarded if you keep at it. WATCH! WATCH! and WATCH MORE! To the best of my ability, I only give you what works (not all the time but most of the time). So your time will be well invested.

I hope this find you well.

GoodVibe


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#44) On July 20, 2009 at 5:34 PM, GoodVibe4Ever (< 20) wrote:

For those who missed the following on CIL or anyone interested. I offered to change the name of the community from "GoodVibe community" to something else if this will help more people to come and join. I am not sure if the current name was voted for. Not once I've been asked to change the name but we are working on the guidelines of our community and I thought to bring it up to vote. Please vote freely.

Refresh this page to see the latest results after voting. Thanks!

GoodVibe

 

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